Caution UPdate Tuesday close

 Went to a sell today on SPX MA cross and VIX MA cross.
Still will keep a caution flag up. Problem  Vix sell is at a higher then normal level and 2 the seasonal are very bullish,3 a 1 day sell you got to be fast and nimble.










 We  need to be cautious here. No sell yet ,but the $Rut out performing could mean that the big stocks will be flat, and it is catch up time for the small caps ( my hope). Or it could be a considered speculation running wild.
Lets look at the 4.94% model and the charts shows it could be real greed.
The ATR is also about where I have my support line.

click chart to enlarge

Looking at the $VIX just notice where the circles are located.
Once the bars cross the green MA it's a sell signal. I only point this out because today's bar is right on it.
I think you will know soon where we are going. 
So FWIW  Jerry O

Not picking a top

With a market this volatile I would like to point out I'm still bullish.
But nothing goes straight up and we have warnings.
We could be at risk of hitting the 2060 line in a flash. Advanced Get has issued a RED bias as a warning some work real well.
We are at a point where a minium wave 5 has hit and the crossing of the auto trend line, near the yellow horizontal .Congestion for sure.   Jerry
  click chart to enlarge

 Looking at FSC we need to break out above $8.16

Update 12-23-14

10-23-14 Market closed.
PRO's-I see no reason yet not to be bullish. All MA are on buy's. We remain above middle pitchfork so strong market.

CON's WE are at a minimal wave 5. Keeping the support at 2035 incase of a fat finger trade. Will move it up soon when we see how weak the first down day will be. NAS and Rut were weak today. New highs are where trouble can start.

Spx 2169 by Oct 2015?

First the Short Term

Nothing goes up in a straight line so we have to expect some weakness sooner or later.

Even thought I’m bullish,I have to keep a S.T. worry on the table. That is we could have a failure soon and a big drop.Many of my friends are in that bear camp. I think there is little worry but need to keep eye on supports. Personally I think we have low volume  with a higher tilt week. SUPPORT @ 2039.50  SPX CASH ALWAYS.

Click Charts to enlarge LONG TERM View
WHY Oct  2015, 360 degree of Oct 2014 low.   Jerry

New worry Wave failure

Click chart to enlarge.
New worry. We have broke out of the pitchfork that is not sustainable.
You would be hard pressed to find such events.
The other worry is a wave 5 failure or wave 5 top.
So key area is 2079.47 the old high.
Friday will be important day for all of next week.
Jerry

Whats not to like?

 Looking at interest rate stock that should have better days ahead with rising rates,I show one on my 2015 picks.
Double bottom and ending 5th wave. There is a list below. Buyer do your own
D.D.

 SPX ---Well we had an inside day by .14.
I like inside days as being bullish. Lets hope we go no lower than 1991 the original support line. Soft open can lead to big things. Or yesterdays close + today close /2  offer almost same support. Wave 4 support on chart. click to enlarge

Here we have my MA crossing another bullish sign if we can stay up.
2020 seem key number not my number but sounds good.
A straight shot probably not.


Jerry O

Fun and games

If I was to buy a group it would be these.
I do own a lot of FSC some bought yesterday.
Some under water.
They will love higher rates and will not wait 6 months to get on board.
( Scenario market 6 months ahead.)
Jerry

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	&		&
FSC	03:48pm EST	7.94	+0.12	+1.55%	1,196,394	Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board
FULL	03:45pm EST	4.599	+0.01	+0.20%	89,184	Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board
GARS	03:44pm EST	14.20	0.00	0.00%	48,598	Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board
MCC	03:49pm EST	9.04	+0.20	+2.26%	775,812	Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board
MRCC	03:33pm EST	14.095	+0.01	+0.04%	27,842	Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board
NMFC	03:49pm EST	14.27	+0.13	+0.94%	409,448	Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board
OFS	03:33pm EST	11.96	+0.48	+4.18%	12,887	Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board
PSEC	03:49pm EST	8.47	+0.15	+1.74%	4,887,147	Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board
TCPC	03:48pm EST	15.655	+0.17	+1.11%	356,188	Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board
TCRD	03:48pm EST	11.73	+0.42	+3.71%	208,742	Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board
WHF	03:43pm EST	11.3701	-0.1599	-1.39%	55,507	Chart, News, Stats, Options, Boar

Could be within a day.

Click chart to enlarge.

OK my 1982 was hit today.. We could be at that very important point in time..
Auto gann say's this is important point. (arrow)
My target area.
MA confirms but has not turned up.
Normal 90 point range is in.
Looking back over the years the 18th/19th could be up strong 
Need a close over today is #1.

Cons    6 TD is very fast and if we are going for 200 points down, then pink ball is target.

Jerry


Tuesday late night. Well it didn't work today so till we see a higher close, all you can do is pick support.
Lower highs and lower lows are not telling.

My thoughts

Support seems to be in yellow area. If we look at the last  drop on 10-15-14 where we had a 50 point intra day drop, then adding the close of 2002 -20 puts us in that same yellow area of 1982.
I know many have the 26th as a low but the market seems to move to fast.
Bye the dips  still envious.

We take out that 10-15 low then the bull is over.

Hope to post soon.

http://www.mysiteforsoreeyes.com/Bobs%20Downloads/mechanicpounding.gif


Jan thru May was tough for me. My heart went out of beat and it took 10 months  to get better.

April /May 2nd

Thursday model said Fri would be down. Now Friday model is saying Monday down.
A simple model says Monday low is also a buy.
How low??
The Spx  100 sma is @ 1835. P&F has 1850.
If we look at my zig-zag wave chart I have 1845 as strong support based on b and d. As alway the opening gap is usually the day leader.  I would like to see us plunge to the close.

Wed-Thur-Fri

Nice if we hit resistance of Spx 1884.89 yesterday high and fail.
Earning are supposed to be sour as time goes on, does the market look ahead?
Model not all that telling except an o-b signal.
I have to get my car inspected and have a Dr. so will watch from mobile one.    later review if possible.  Jerry
******************************************************************
12:30 PMModel not impressed today. If we can't go down more than what we have seen then a rally tomorrow is very possible.
**************************************************************************
Late report: 3:55pm I bought a call oex.
Model still saying todays action was bullish for Thursday.
I notice we have a TD high Friday. The highs should be in very soon-days.
Any time now.

************************************************************************
Thursday  1pm  Model looking for a down day tomorrow (Fri)  If we hold this area. Will  retest at 3:30 today. Jerry
******************************************************************
Thurs 3:40pm still pointing to down tomorrow after a CIT high.
Last 5m vol rush can change everything.

Week 21st to 25th 4April 2014

Tuesday AM model not found with this  low a number -207.50
Considering I have data back to December 2006 .
So need a little more time . Futures are +


10:10 am live test for Jerry
Not trading advise Bought a oex put 835 with 10 td expire at $8.00
Spx 1880.   Second overbought signal. High with in 7 TD

3:30  having data issues and Verizon.
"Second overbought signal. High with in 7 TD"

Daily Updates check back.

ok bought apr oex 830 and may 830 puts, see what happens. 4pm

3:40  Model is looking for a high in 1 to 8 days.
If we close near high will start to buy a put .
Suggest to get a 10 day out put.




10:45 am Mkt is tepid hitting neither target. Looks like we will get a 1-8 TD signal of a pending high. Will confirm at 3:30pm ish report.
Standing aside-Jerry

 4/21/14        Model looks tepid. Suggest if we take out  Thursday low buy 1 call in money.

If we take out Thursday high better yet 1872.xx then probably a put.

Give gap a lot of weight. POMO highest of week Monday..

Hi,
 Have been working on a daily timing model, and a 3-8 day look ahead.
Will try to post daily. Currently go with Monday gap open.

Some charts to look at. This shows a buy signal but what will happen at down trend line?



click charts to enlarge.

Wave 5 higher is what is called.

Neither chart has anything to do with my daily view but how we get there. Where ever there is.


Will not be trading advise. USe with your own work.

Holiday and 1790

Several ways to get to 1780-1790

Click chart to enlarge

The next SMA would be 1790


150 SMA

Even P&F has 1780

But lookie here.
f this P& F of the Vix = 22 then the drop will be much bigger maybe the 1732 I have on first chart.




Will this happen Moday no I don't think we do more than 1808 then rally perhaps to short at close.
I do have a TD Low Wednesday but somehow it won't be the final low!

Recap-----No it didn't happen as a higher open hit, making the scenario wrong. I give a good view that I looked for minor weakness at open considering may were very bearish.   4-19-14
Jerry Timingshortterm.group

DO SMA's count?

CLICK CHARTS TO ENLARGE.

TWO MAJOR AVERAGES CLOSED ON THE 150 sma and one on the 50SMA

WE can only guess that resistance will come at 100SMA and 25 SMA.

I don't think we just plunge from here but if you look lower at my work I do offer a 14TD low.
It would be rare to hit a high then plunge to unreasonable deep levels.

Earning will be under pressure this coming quarter so expect the worst.

Jerry


Timingshortterm@yahoo groups

BTW the Dow and  Spy didn't reach even the 50SMA.

Correction or Healthy rotation?

First off Friday drop did no technical damage that I can see. This probably is just a rotation of stocks.
If more then a rotation here are a few scenarios.
* If a wave 3 then a pull back to 1844 to 1857 is common.
Looking for more deeper correction then look at the 14TD examples and grey trend line.
So a 14TD pull back to 4 -24 could be in the cards of at least 113 points or somewhere in the 1791 area..
A real model buster is 1732

With this market the buy the dip crowd probably have orders placed.
Could be a 3rd wave or a 5th wave but more action is needed.

My EW thoughts

Sure futures are strong at 11pm Thursday but still this chart if true has a look.


http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/?iid=H_MKT_QL

Using the 2% and 3% zig-zag for EW count.

DeMark 11 count?

This software suggest a Demark 11 count for today Wednesday the 3rd of April

Fractal if big down Monday

If we have a big down Monday March 17th than I look for 1772 by March 28 +/-1 TD..Following the 150SMA like last time (purple fractal)... Last week I looked for 1850Spx and we got more, 1850 is now 1st resistance.

Jerry O 
timingshortterm@ yahoo groups  --you need 5 years experience to join! We have 2 Astro experts,2 EWT experts,several timing and many math experts. Indices usually but always looking for a new Guru.
                      Not always 99% pure.

Do charts lie part 2

These charts should lead to a sharp drop to Spx 1850 sometime this pre option week perhaps Weird Wally Wed.

 Sell number one is a 12 count on the Demark Combo

 Sell #2 is a chart of the HYG or the high yield Corp
bonds. Every indicator on this chart shows a divergance with the Spx 2nd row
Click chart to enlarge. That drop = the Spx on Feb 28th
Or the major support line currently seen on any chart.

Here we have a point and figure chart calling for 
Spx 1840


Good luck

Jerry

Can you trust a chart?

If you can trust this chart it looks very bearish. A down Monday coud start the ball rolling.
Jerry

H&S looks lost

Count was wrong.unless we tank.

 click image to expand

Two EW counts

 Click charts to enlarge and read.


Jerry O

Chart #1 looks to end  a 5th wave down at 1752 to 1725 Spx. This is not favored by me because it puts my topping view at risk.

 Chart 2 is my perferred count based on a lot of studies at tops and makes a nice package.

We wait.

Jerry

The top is IN.

Update 29th 1pm Fed day:
 Here is what I think Avanced GET would like to see.
If this is Wave 5 top then we need to on average drop in 10+/- TD drop 88 SPX points.
Looking back at several important tops that is a ball park time and number.
So unless  we can take 1850- 88 = 1762 target soon then I don't see wave A forming.
If we do plunge to that  1762 it would be a buy for 5 TD's
So we wait.

Not trading advise.




The chart below I used to pick the top and it is updated. You can see the earlier chart way below. Yes I had Dec 31st  as the top at  Spx 1849. But the gann lines put the timing much closer. They also agreed with my projection area.
I came up with that projection by finding the points beween wave 2 and wave 3 and then adding them to wave 4 and that projected count.Wave 5 moved up as usual as mkt climbed. What's Next ?
I believe we hit  Spx 1778 per the gann line. That  is not the only  TA that would offer that area.
I'm not trying to brag but this same progam called the bottom on March 6th 2009. I was at the Time and Cycle board at that time and many Elliot wave types scoffed and thay will here and now.
I still think the lower caps will rally into March like the year 2000 did.   Jerry

100 year cycle WHEN!

 We have the panic of 1907 that Ben Bernanke
has talked about many times. We see a low in 1915 almost same area.

I believe 2007 to 2015 will have the same result.
My guess is we will rally in the lower priced stocks till mom and pop run out of money and then the house of card will come down.
A good example of that was yr 2000 where
low priced stocks were lifted by the water.
You can expect money to come out of high priced stocks like Intc and Cat and many more.
Yes the high in Dow probably is in but the Russ will run till late March.
Place your bets but get out when prices go to I can't believe it, highs!

Jerry

Click charts to enlarge, you can also see historical charts like this at StockCharts.com   ( free)

No rally today UPdate

A complete reversal of the Trans  and then some. The Util just as upset.

Did we do any technical damage, no not yet

Charts below.

.

                          

                 

Rally Coming

 Big Rally coming???
This chart looks bullish..
When a market goes sideways  for 2 weeks and doesn't do what you expect on a bad number like Friday, then you have to switch you thinking fast.
BIG OE RALLY??????????????

Big breakout in the Transports ! 

Big breakout in the Util!

 Big break out in Corp bonds  !

  All  Gov't bonds going down

Short term view of the SPX with higher highs and higher lows.
We could ATTACK that higher trend line.