Saturday, May 19, 2012

Low 3 days way? AGET Wave change

I have updated this chart to the new AGET wave count and the old one is in (red). I also did the new bias so much has changed.

Looking back at really oversold indicators I think we could see a low in 2 to 4 day based on the past.

This is not because I have 144TDL on 5-24.
May 2nd looked like we would have a hard time but low and behold.
I built this below chart in Feb when Apple was going to $1000, GS was saying this is the best time ever to buy stock and the emerging markets would carry the World.
Oh yes 1450 to 1525 was on deck for the SPX.

With the wave count changing if it holds, the high for 2012 probably is in and any rally will be lucky to get to 1370 SPX.

One problem is the $$! If it keeps climbing the FED could and probably will come out with QE3
however QE3 could scare investors big time in to thinking how bad a shape are in.
I would not follow Buffet, his time is up, like every great investor who finally hits a wall.

Good trading to all. Jerry O

Friday, May 18, 2012

Signals failing

At 1AM ET I watch as ASIA self destruct .Back in Feb/March as Apple was headed for $1000 and the Emerging markets were going to carry the World and any sell off, I scoffed.
This chart I made in Feb had a 144 TDL in May 24th is close enough.
The other reason I post this chart is I just heard DR DOOM ( Mark Farber) compare this May with May 2011 ( yellow dots) Mark says not to short this market because he believes we will have a big run higher like June 2011. His target is 1370/1400.
May 2011 we dropped 60 points and May 2012 111 pts so far, if the ST low is in here. basically dropping twice as fast. Until we have a rally we are in no man's
land support 1292 then a wave failure at 1267.
I lost a few calls but LT bearish ETF working.I know I said a few pages back when this starts it will be fast, but always suprising just the same.
Jerry O