Thursday, February 10, 2011

More weakness appears

I have to stay with this theme above.. We have the spx+vix up today = down Friday (75% of time it works). Still watching this fractal, not the close, but the range, as history rarely repeats.
Watch spx 1313.63, then 1302.83 on a close basis.
The weakness I see: The % of stocks above there 50dsma is getting weaker as we rally. This is a different event since Aug. I have marked off a few dates with a line that could be a catalyst.
Some one said to me today I think 1300 holds, but the more I think about it, if not, a panic will unfold. I do have 1212 down the road but I have higher numbers too.Price is KING for direction.

Click any image to enlarge. Speaking of what is different look at rates climb. Some thing is a miss Watson. Other than above comments the trend is UP.

Weakness appears

Is this a Short term top? Need to watch one more bar, a rally failure could do the job. Even at that I think the target is 1212 Spx based on yesterdays chart. Right too the area where the last correction started.

This is a chart of the SOX vs SPX the dates I have marked off on the cross over didn't really do much to the market. What we do need to watch is both turned down. We need to watch that.


Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Trend remains up even if correction.

From yr 2000 high we get 1360.22, from the 2007 high we get 1380.98. A pull back at anytime could only offer 1212 spx. So a seasonal rally or plunge into April 25th ish not out of the question.

We need to keep an eye on rates as they start to creep higher.

Monday, February 7, 2011

Trend Still Up unless

We have the EDT still in force. 1315 area or as AGET says it's complete now with (5)-5-V.
I have put on the target the elips offers 1280-1250
Monday watch 1309.02 then 1297.07 ( pivot @ 1298.52) then 1294.64 other than that, I see no chance of a CIT.
This chart of the percent of Spx stocks above their 50 day SMA is not all that bearish as yet.
A break under the 50 level is an alert and under 45 a sell officially.
I have added speculative lines that in fast markets give good sells or buys. Some key area's like January high 2009 and March low 2009 stick out. Mid Oct 2010 vs Jan 2011 may offer a divergance since we have climbed higher but basically we are are still in buy the dips mode.