Getting Toppy 12-19-2013

Sold stocks today that hit new highs like HIMX and buying some SPXU.
Many divgerences on these charts. Trans,Util etc.

Still looks good to ME

 Advanced Get bullish view













We bounced right back to where it started.
We need to hold this line.

5 day chart

Breaking Out

 Russell seems have held support and now ready to run.
At some point it will turn to speculation
maybe 1st week of new year if we spike now.

COMPQ is on a tear so this bullish time of year is no place to fight the tape.

Lets get parabolic !!!

12% run not out of question

A 12% run from 200 dma would put get us overbought and at Spx 1850 give or take.
My in the ball park average ( 1849 Spx)

Spx 1849 or Less

Big UP, Little flat

 First I have a reaction day usually big in both directions (Monday 18th)

Is the combo count right? I don't know. I do like the SD lines for buy and sell with OB/OS indicators.
We should be aware not a call for a top..

 Little ones are flat as Generals move up.


click charts to enlarge...

 Little ones are flat as Generals move up.Really flat on the Russ

Here is a look at bull,bear,bull,bear,BULL.
Happy ending noway.

Time for a rest

 We are over bought by may measures.
Here we notice that the big caps are leading and the compq is weak

 We notice here even the $rut is weak vs the oex.

Thia fractal of the $cpce maybe very telling. You notice  the last OS line and a peak in 10 TD's
Well we are again in that time frame..

Today is fed day noi change expected but what other news is there to pump market?

I think it is time to pullback and if the maket is weak at close I could short.

Jerry

I don't know!

I looked for a rally but this was a super rally. I need to see a few more days to see if a freak or the real thrust rally.

Calling a ST LOW

My post to members today   "BTW if we plunge the close I think we get a playable pop higher tomorrow."   I did buy some calls on the close.
We either hit a ST low today or will in the am tomorrow. Either way I look up tomorrow.WEDNESDAY  9th

Looking at this chart, we should hold the 100dma for a few days.
Look at arrow in green at bottom of chart. The ratio has hit lows right before rallies .
Wenesday is also a very important TD
as followed by one of the members.

My bull data.
Tick -799   O.S.
Premium 2.67 bullish
Xsp 1.95 to bearish and that is bullish
Charts FINALLY look ugly and that is bullish. It's hard to find anything     bullish so that is bullish.
Oh and Yellon news.

Jerry

Support better hold or BOOM

 We finally broke the back of the strength in the
$rut chart  left   . This is vs the Oex.
That could be very important to the overall health of this market.
I think it shows a lot of speculation.
If that is a parabolic top they end badly.
Many think this is about the budget but I think it is QE and the failure of it .

 More signs of what could be real danger.I think this the start of a major drop if support fails.
The market is looking real tired.
I want that 5% to 10% correction to happen
so we can fresh up the charts.

Mid to late Oct is my target for that low.
We are not oversold here, not that the market can't rally but it would be better to fail now.

The red line on the Aroon moved up today a sell signal or the damn thing is running late.

Even the ADX has a divergence with lower peaks.

If we break here it won't be pretty.


Today Friday close, we rallied all day, just about the opposite of last Friday where we fell all day.

50 DMA is all we got to hold us up and that can pop fast.
Look out below!!
 

DITTO Ahead 5 to 10% correction,Mid Oct at least.

 We can again look at Advanced Get chart.
What this say's is no tecknical damage as of yet.
A takeout of  Spx 1686 is needed.
This could be quick!

 CPCE keeps getting into bearish area.
Unchanged for 1 week, no fear in the pits.

Most important chart is $NYAD looking to take down the 25dma.
You can see results of other crossing's.

*Bottom line we have no real technical damage yet!
* Wed is another reaction day, last 2 have been big to shake trend followers.
*Friday close big bearishness in Oex pit, there record has been dead wrong this year still I respect
there thoughts.
* I don't think the weakness is about the budget.
I think it is about the QE with 3/4 years we are still swimming in quicksand, with 2 balloons to help hold us up.
My 2 cents.

Rally Over for now!

 The CPCE has not been looking great for months, and we have been plunging into topping area several times of late. This is one indicator that has me worried we are surely topping here.

See my post to group below.

The week ahead Monday looks  bearish with bearish options and a  neg premiun of - 2.76.
With the weekend Monday is a fools game but
net -net week is down .

My post to group Thursday night.
-----Original Message-----
From: Jerry
Sent: Fri, Sep 20, 2013 12:28 am
Subject: [TimingShortTerm] Reaction Day Friday looking down

This reaction day is usually big.

We could clip out a new high but net net I look for a down day with xsp options at  2386c and 39 puts.
Even the Oex has finally gotten a mit bullish.
Friday is also a 144 TD possible   L-L ?
JerryO                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
******************************************************************** Here is the Advanced Get model.
We are ending a wave 5 and everything seems to be falling into
place. I said in the last few weeks I was bullish till last week now look out for last week of Sept. Friday 20th was the start.
I believe we are going to have at the very least a 5% correction or a fib 50%.
With Oct right around the corner a 10% correction should be on tap.
Good trading.

Short term bullish but look out last week of Sept.

AGET offers a bull look but not very much, and then we could get a  drop in last week of Sept just like Sept of 2012.
10% probably not, since 100dma has been holding.

This chart also has me bullish for the short term.
Dark blue slow trend has us not in up trend.
The fast green line does have us in an uptrend.
Wouldn't surprise me break above bule trend line and 50 dma only to get hit hard down.
Right now I think we move higher till Thursday Option week.

Been on vacation last few weeks, hope every one had a great summer.

That 4% Intel is paying looks great still.
Jerry
TimingShortTerm  experienced only need apply .

Look at red line for direction

 If you notice when the red SMA is curving up it's been bullish and vice versa.
Would expect higher prices aheah or buy the dips.
Friday Bloomberg and CNBC had the bears on and how many were selling out at this level.
I would think 1750 or 1800 Spx is next .


Jerry O

5th Wave or extending

Monday the 29th is a 144TD High
Moon in 3Q
5th TD of 20 TD cycle
Expect EOM rally.
Fed still pumping.
Possible 1737 Spx cash.

If housing starts to slide and oil keeps climbing it could get nasty real fast. Earning are soft finally.

K.I.S.S.

Short covering and momentum rally spike.

OK Big rally. Short covering for sure.
The rally ended over bought.
The rally was an outside day considered bearish by me.
Still stuck between  50dma and 25 dma.
Need another day to see but I don't think it has legs.
The parabolic indicator I built is looking for a low tomorrow, seems hard to believe.

More down ,cycles 18/19 th

I have some serious cycles on the 18/19th that could offer support  unless I get a parabolic buy.
HEADLINE Soros says 2014 will be a tough year.

This chart to right if we break dashed line could be nasty.











Some simple S/R lines I don't think any one can argue with.  Click to enlarge b Jerry

Reaction day Tuesday

We could be down big.
Charts of weakness.


The next crash could be emerging mkts!

Jerry

Correction time 1616 or more.

 Advanced Get offers these price supports.

1616 first support   then  1573 Spx

The red vertical is a AGet sell bias last 2 not that good. Went above my target but not that much.

 Here is a collection of popular EMA moving averages.
Something there for everyone.

Click image to enlarge.

 The look of a CIT at the very least.
This is a 13 year view.

 These charts are telling of at least extremes.

This pop is on a long term view much more telling but happens at CIT's  but not tops only but suggests correction time.