Friday, December 21, 2012

Calls for more down,maybe

                                                                                 Just how much the day changed.

This snap was taken at 11am and looked like a crash day.
As you can see by the close the vix had improved
second chart.

We also had buying start to appear after lunch. With all the news on Cliff if we didn't crash there then I find it hard to see Monday down.

If we look at the $CPCE it suggested a bottom was coming so was that it?

I just don't have enough data on my spread sheet to suggest we were overbought enough yet.
As we rallied I kept getting only one indicator in sell mode out of 3 so I need to be suspect that many will not see this as a buying opportunity.

Stay tuned.


Wednesday, December 19, 2012

P/C 2.45 Big move possible

All I know is it's triple witch. We have a high P/c ratio could help us move again.
Move where I don't know. Today a reaction day for me, and tomorrow I have the 20TD of the 40TDC but that could have been today. Closing on the lows of the day and a inside day  seems bullish.
I'm over bought on 1 indicator again. Had we rallied today I probably would have been very bearish.
Looking back at the last 4 Triple witchs I see rallies. This week of course we started strong so does that mean we finish stronger? Triple witch who knows but we are due for as triple witch plunge. Can't remember last one.
Max pain  $oex.x last I seem was 635.
Good luck,
Jerry O

Sunday, December 16, 2012

Monday reversal- P/C 2.49

Pat my back time. If you took the 9:40-9:45 time  and did opposite you had a winner. Blush I over slept.

Monday I look for a reversal to the up side with a possible 10:30 Low. I think 1404-1405 Spx
Reason one, my parabolic indicator is flashing a low.
The P/c ratio 2.49 offers a big move. but real direction unknown since above 3.00 is better for direction.

 The Vix as shown in this chart is in the down area with the crossing of MA so a pullback is in order.
The vix is also touching upper band.
One of charts below shows it. Last chart.

                                                                                                                                                                                  Blue circles just point out bottoms and green point out tops but their is a time factor so we have a little room to rally

 Fear and greed look neutral.
My sheet was overbought several days ago so this backoff could offer a higher prices for a few days and this   is OE week.
 These charts below have me worry longer term.
If you look at what I will call a frackass because it's not a real fractal but has some haunting indicators. If we don't turn around we could get in a plunge real fast.
Most think we will rally after the WH comes to a deal and we probably will have a knee jerk.
But when you wake up you will say what is good about me paying more taxes. For starters a $65 Obama care fee will be coming soon. Not a tax Oh O.K.

 Here we have a P&F chart with a flag at 1390
and a target of 1250.
This will happen sooner than later.
 Here is the McCellan. I don't try to put spark plugs into the McC and tune it up.

All I do is look at it as a chart with my indicators on it.
Based on that it is on a sell even with  histogram
combo MACD.
Even the cross overs are not good. How fast can this change I don't know but I have it on the watch list.