Saturday, April 12, 2014

Holiday and 1790

Several ways to get to 1780-1790

Click chart to enlarge

The next SMA would be 1790

150 SMA

Even P&F has 1780
But lookie here.
f this P& F of the Vix = 22 then the drop will be much bigger maybe the 1732 I have on first chart.

Will this happen Moday no I don't think we do more than 1808 then rally perhaps to short at close.
I do have a TD Low Wednesday but somehow it won't be the final low!

Recap-----No it didn't happen as a higher open hit, making the scenario wrong. I give a good view that I looked for minor weakness at open considering may were very bearish.   4-19-14

Monday, April 7, 2014

DO SMA's count?


TWO MAJOR AVERAGES CLOSED ON THE 150 sma and one on the 50SMA

WE can only guess that resistance will come at 100SMA and 25 SMA.

I don't think we just plunge from here but if you look lower at my work I do offer a 14TD low.
It would be rare to hit a high then plunge to unreasonable deep levels.

Earning will be under pressure this coming quarter so expect the worst.


Timingshortterm@yahoo groups
BTW the Dow and  Spy didn't reach even the 50SMA.

Sunday, April 6, 2014

Correction or Healthy rotation?

First off Friday drop did no technical damage that I can see. This probably is just a rotation of stocks.
If more then a rotation here are a few scenarios.
* If a wave 3 then a pull back to 1844 to 1857 is common.
Looking for more deeper correction then look at the 14TD examples and grey trend line.
So a 14TD pull back to 4 -24 could be in the cards of at least 113 points or somewhere in the 1791 area..
A real model buster is 1732

With this market the buy the dip crowd probably have orders placed.
Could be a 3rd wave or a 5th wave but more action is needed.