Saturday, March 5, 2011

Trend up unless 1302.58 falls

Trend has turned to UP.

One last chance for the bears is to close under the 1302.58 gap on Monday AM.

Bullish numbers are 1327.22 the Feb close and an average, then a number I keep coming across at spx 1333.We blow through that and a new high is near. However I think we just painfully work higher. I will post only one chart of congestion that I have been using.

Depending how it breaks will help to clear the air.

Friday, March 4, 2011

Sell the news.

Early read at 5:20 PM

Today was almost carbon copy of Feb 1st 2011

Upvol 88% vs 88%. Point gain 22.53 vs 21.47 spx

Tick 1218 vs 916, trin .57 vs .61

What does that tell me? Friday will be a flat (inside?) day and that is bullish.

Other than that we look for failures.

Was today a buy the rumor and Friday sell the news?

Thursday, March 3, 2011

Stay Bearish unless

Why to stay bearish? Thursday. 3-4

The stock market hates 2 things! Good news and uncertainty we have both.

I think you want to ride with the gap direction for Thursday till 9:45 then watch for a reverse.

The S1 and R1 support/resistance will get hit as a guide.

Dax and Ftse are important leaders.

Even the Sox that was so strong has flat lined here. chart below......

Speaking of the Resistance R2 is spx 1320 or just about 61.8%

of the 1332-1303 . I would not want to see us go above that 1320/1322 area on a close basis.

Tuesday recap 3-2

My view is 10 days ago a formula I used pulled spx 1333 out and we stuck there for 3 days. I thought that was the high but we went a little higher. Now we are to test that again with a 78.6% hit =1333. I hope that will stop it like a brick wall. I don't understand Roy's count but his first number is a throw away and when we come back to a fib hit that should be it. On the table also is the % of stock above the 50dma flat lined today on an up day. We had the up-volume actually down. With a weak trin most of the day the bear will rule Tuesday if 1333 holds. I would also watch the Dax as an early clue.

Sunday, February 27, 2011

Choppy for a few days

Thinking a choppy few days then we see. The down trend is weak. Perhaps you noticed money came out of the blue chips and filtered down to $30 or less stocks. True signs of rotations and speculation. Cheap stocks could have a good run for a few weeks.

Looks like the Upvolume burned a few dollars trying to move a few points to 1st resistance

The % above 50dma makes me think chop like when we tested 1173 several times