Friday, February 25, 2011

How much rally?

Technically we have done no damage yet!
Looking at the chart below it have us down in the area of the last low. Peaking around 11-5 at 1227 then tanking to 1173 and testing that area for weeks. Things could level out here with a bounce. Bears watch spx 1311 then 1327. I think 1311 a good pivot on a clsose basis. We need to tighten up to get a big move I think.
VIX +SPX calls for up day Friday.

This is a % of stocks above their 50 day ma. The actual sell comes under 50% but I notice direction helps.

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Change in Trend??

I think we need to see the strength of the next rally.The trend is down as long as we don't close above Spx 1325.65 but I think that 1333.20 maybe the watch number.
Today was almost a carbon copy of the 28th plunge. upvol 13% vs 9% today, trin 1.30 vs 1.15,tick -653 vs - 634 and the vix over 20 both times.. I think we open higher then ????
The only thing that is showing this market is getting weak is the % of stocks above there 50 day m.a..
Where the circle is, is the 28th plunge

Last week of Feb 2011

My thoughts and the gann wheel below
Spx If 1335.63 fails, then 1328.01, but 1326.66 on a close basis offers something deeper.
In percents 2.5 = 1310, a break of 1300 would put 7% at 1249.99 on the low area and gap fill target.