Friday, August 20, 2010

Getting real bearish for next week

Friday 20th OE Oex in p.m. Saturday settlement.
Trend Model
ST (days) down
Med T (weeks ) down
LT 30 cd up.
I have a jpg of what I think is a bearish 9TD fractal! Is it really a fractal I don't know. I do know this is the second time in 9 TD we are attaching the 50dma on the vix. Once we cross above it, if we do, hang on to your socks or that sucking sound will take them.

Next week I expect an assault on spx 1040 to 1010 .
This chart below is my gann 15 degree model normally 30 is used but I have had some great moves on 15 tomorrow a big move should happen.
I see a gap down am with rally into close +/-20m.
That rally should be sold. disclaimer- fun and games.

Thursday, August 19, 2010

19th down ?

Looking for either a 9:40 pop high or a 10:30 high, lower rest of day. S3L preferred
We also has up vix+up spx + down day 80% of the time.

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

waiting 2 Aug 18th

The inversion window from 1-2pm did offer the H.O.D @ 1:34pm yesterday.

My model didn't offer anything due to Tuesday action.
It is still on a SELL signal. 3 models....
S2 10:30 is key time a hi look for a reversal rest of day, or a 10:30 low look for a rally.
I will use 1102 spx as a breakeven point and then stand aside till a better entry.


Use with your own work.

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Waiting for next signal

S1L ? or SU (stuckup)
We are in a inversion window 1-2pm.
I have a breakeven sell at 1102 spx if 1122+1082 was held.
We didn't get the 1066L so no credit there.
Max pain has us at 1080-1100 spx but can we go much higher.?
This is a short covering rally so to fast for my trend model .
My model will offer something after today's close.

Monday, August 16, 2010

Down till proven other wize.

The target remains 1066/or 1064. Let market tell us. I can't get all beared up because the vix
didn't close above the 50dma but close. If we are going to bottom here in a Wave (4) that would cause a great buying panic. Keep the Dax in your sites for strength or weakness.
What could make me more bearish/bullish is lower than 1056 spx or gap above 1111.
Short term-days down.
Medterm - weeks down
Lt -30td- up