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Thursday, February 2, 2017

Feb. 2017 4.94% model

Friday closed very O.B. I look for a gap down in the shot term open. Now how over bought are we? Here is a chart of the 4.94% model. As you can see it can come quick or run for a few months like July -Aug 2015.
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Not a gap down but in a few minutes it went down.     Here is a shot of the low at 11:15 cross over.
 For Friday i look for a gap down open. Will watch for AM high.

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Just keeps climbing. Look for gap down open for Thursday
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Looking for an AM high for Wed.
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Friday couldn't rally fast enough.
Monday a bonus rally . For Tuesday I look for a gap dn open but an AM H
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New highs! Thursday looked like a gap up and it was. Friday looks again like a gap up. It's an AM Low day so we could again rally all day.
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 Sure was wrong about Tuesday. Looks to gap down Wed but should be a hi AM day.
I said we would see lower before 2300 SPX still true so far. Money still coming out of bonds. 
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Tuesday looks to gap down again. I don't see the bullishness or follow through from Friday.
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 Well Friday jobs number was a surprise. Surprised that it didn't take out SPX 2300..
BOP = (Close – Open)/(High – Low)*5   This tells me we at least near a ST high.
Monday is S2B-- Either Fri was the ST high or we see it Monday....!

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Update Thursday flat again not very telling. I still look for a correction. Why, earnings are 53% out, and bad earning come last. Fed speak is done. So what is the push higher? I can't think of anything long lasting.
Indicators look for Friday to gap down. I believe we will see 2233 spx/ 2200/ before we see 2300 again

Jerry
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The 1/2 way  point and strong resistance is Spx 2284.10


No matching buy on bottom indicator 2PM ET



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Flat day, tried to correct but Apple held it up. Indicator are mixed.
I hope to see us down as the EOM rally has been weak.

Tuesday, January 3, 2017

Jan 2017

UP date, gap sure was down.
We had the RSI     O.B. from 3pm to 4pm and other indicators call for another gap down.
Apple earning will probably hold that off temp. but expect over all a down day. 
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Hi Traders, Correction time
We saw the price high on 1-26-17, and the momentum high on 1-27-17.
I now look for 3 down days.
The gap for Tuesday 21st is down as we were O.B. at the close.
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Talia replied   from stockcharts,


Jan 23, 6:39am
Dear Jerry,

Thank you for contacting us. I apologize that the OBV and volume based indicators are not updated on the chart. For those indicators to update they require volume data and unfortunately our data vendor has had trouble sending us the intraday volume data.

Our data team is working with the data vendor to get this issue resolved.

Please let me know if you have any other questions or comments about our website.
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 Volume indicators still not working at stock charts.
So on hold.
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 Recap for Tuesday: We did get a drop but not as low as I hoped.
Wednesday should be a low AM day but I see the closed as O B with many indicators near there highs. StockChart volume indicator are down today so I can't make a firm call that I believe will work .
Not going to be surprised if we plunge again. 
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REcap for Friday, a high AM it was on a very tight day 7pts, but no hero's 
Tuesday Jan 17th I look for a drop if indicator holds. It was below the index all day.We need to finish wave 4 down gulp 2133 spx possible?




 http://stockcharts.com/articles/tradingplaces/2015/03/can-you-time-the-stock-market.html#at_pco=smlrebh-1.0&at_si=587c30acd0f50ff2&at_ab=per-2&at_pos=3&at_tot=5

Bowley based this above on 65 years of data.............................................................................

Based on my own work  I look for a deep drop Tuesday. That possibly should be bought if last tick is near the low.Then a rally into Friday sell the news day.( second thought low is wed AM then sharply rally since I have received 1 buy signal ) Jerry

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 Wed recap Day was a surprise rally
Thursday I did not post but was looking for AM low  that sort of balanced the 2 days.
Friday I have a mixed signal on the gap but do look for AM high, not sure what news lead is Friday do will stick with AM high for now. 
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 No call for Tuesday and we ended flat-not bad.
Wednesday  I look for an AM high, probably a gap up open, but flat for rest of the day. BB is flat and until it makes a statement ( breakout or break down) I will call flat. 87 NH/ 12 NL
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 Good Call again me thinks: I hinted at weakness, the AM was the low till 3:59 - 1tic.
Tuesday with the volume indicators not working , kills any thought I could have there, so looking at the BB it was all over the place today on tight trading and ended flat. Guess there will need to be someone call tomorrow.        https://www.briefing.com/investor/markets/market-internals/
internals not great but still I think we have a sell the news event on the 19-20th 

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Good call again for Friday, orange day indicator worked.
Monday is difficult, indicators say down open,Friday 114 NH,7 NL not strong, and B.B. broke down after mid day high, so looking for a low AM  day.
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 Good call for Thursday ( gap dn yes-AM high yes-slow day-yes) 
Friday gap indicators are mixed, no call, B.B moved up after mid day low so look for at lest a AM high, orange day indicator has failed of late but should offer higher prices for Friday


Today was strong 188 NH, 4NL-------- The B.B. was weak all day
Update for the 5th .
Looks like a gap down.  probably an AM high. or a slow day.Rethinking the Fed statement..




Advanced GET offers a buy, the last sell was great. Jan 3rd









Truthfully I felt we would rally into the last day of Dec 2016.

However we fell and this past week I received 2 buy signals.

Tuesday is and AM high day but could just keep running.

The indicators call for a gap down open but it hard to see one.

If there is a low it will be Wednesday 4th.
updated daily  Jerry

Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Dec 2016

Surprised I received a early buy signal Wed so I need to watch that.



Recap Thursday, low volume side ways drift
Fri- humm forgot to post,I had us drift higher all day.
Tues-Fri Happy New Year , I think low volume and we will drift higher all week.

 Recap Wed:
Must be in an inversion window since mkt has done opposite of my data. We had a gap up with high good at (9:50) but sold off. Thursday look for a gap up open with a 10:20 low and sideways to up close.
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 Recap Tuesday:
We had a useless low around 10:30 but the gap was a big up not dn.
Wednesday wants to gap dn again with a 10AM high, side ways to up close. 
If W2 +W3 =115 pts then Spx 2363 could be expected, but what ever last day of year bring is where I want to short .
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 Recap Monday: Little gap dn but 10:40 and 11:05 were highs still did the sideways move.
Tuesday Gap dn again is called 10:30 low but again flat. I think Wed will be a bigger up day. 
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 RECAP Fri-He He, we did just the opposite 9:35 h then a 10:40 high to run lower.
OK Monday looks mixed with 2 inside days in a row that I consider bullish but wasn't. Look for a gap down open then a 10:20 MAster low or a general time 10:05 low to regain rest of day or flat out.
Still look rlly into last day of DEc.
Here is what Advanced Get is saying. It called 3 days ago 5 of (3) with wave 4 downside.limited.









recap Thursday:
We did have a big upgap putting the HOD at 11:20 another valid time frame and flattened out rest of day.
Friday I look for a 10:30 low and run higher into the close' 
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Recap Wed  No gap but flat open,low 10:15 but PM just fell apart. Thursday looking for big up gap, 10:05 high then go flat rest of day.


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Recap Tuesday. Sure inverted. I looked for a 10AM high we got a 10:30 low that sent us higher all day.
Wednesday Again I look for a gap down or indicator do I should say. 10:20 low to flat day, then the Fed who knows but probably  relief rally.



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Recap Monday 12th 
High was at 10 AM not  10:30. High AM to low PM day it was.
Tuesday 13th I look again for the same play. Gap down , high AM, low PM day. The trend is still up till Dec 30th where I will get short.   Jerry




Fri recap:
Gap dn no! but rest of call was good. We had a 10:15 low (-5m) and again ran up higher.
Monday I again look for a gap dn with 10:30 high, but probably will close lower.





Thursday Recap: Low was at 10:11 and we ran higher all day. No real gap.
Friday Look for a  gap down  and again a run up Low @10:20 but centered @10:30.
Most are calling today "THE" high. I would wait for the retest if that is the case. My 1952 model says we rally into  end of Dec.





Wed recap: I was looking for high at 10:05 but had a low at 9:55, that killed the signal and we were SU all day.
Thursday look again for a gap dn ( 3 say dn) 10:30 low  and then run higher. Christmas rally in progress.



 Tuesday recap:

We did have a gap dn,    we did have the 10:20 low actual 10:25.
Wednesday Dec 7th Indicators are   mixed (up,up,dn) Since we are over bought close will look for gap dn,
then a  High  10:05 down rest of day, Time to break this uptrend or I'am wrong about AM high.
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Monday recap gap dn didn't happen, 10AM HOD did happen.
Tuesday Dec 6th looking for a gap dn  low AM probably 10:20, could be sharply lower.



Monday Dec  5th look for gap down open (3of 3 indicators). Expect a high AM probably 10 AM but many center it @ 10:30 AM. Looking for Spx 2085 soon.
Jerry O





Dec 1st  Thursday
I look for a gap up open, low AM day, rally most of day.
Recap we had a rally into 10:05 am not he gap up I would have liked, and we went down most of day.
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Dec 2nd indicators are mixed but expect gap up with AM  High could hold most of day.
Getting a early buy warning so we could have a big rally coming soon.
Jobs report moves markets.

Saturday, November 19, 2016

Day Trading TG WK

Been to busy to post!

 Wed was gap dn  9:45 was low, do opposite you did alright.
I didn't post for  Friday but looked for a gap dn again no times. We gaped up.
Monday Nov 28th again indicators  look for a gap dn, I don't think it will fail and the time is 9:45
We should again mount a rally into the close Jerry O
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Tuesday had the gap and the 10:30 time of AM high but was 15M late ( not bad), technically we should have not rallied into the close. Perhaps a setup of some sort?
Wed  indicators look for a gap up. ( 2 gaps in a row same direction usually don't work)
Times 9:40 and 10:20 for direction
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 Monday update and Tuesday call.
GAP was wrong but rest of day right, unplayable with such a large gap.
TUESDAY looks for a gap UP.   10:30 key time do opposite.
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Day Trading
Monday  21st 2016 November
Indicators are diverging so a tougher call.
I look for a gap down to buy this weeks call options.
After the gap down or up, I still want to get long. This is a high AM
day that I think will invert to a high PM day.
I trade OEX options since you can
trade up to 4:15PM –E.T.

Ps. Here was Friday 18th post that worked well.
Friday Indicators looked for a Gap dn, rally into 10:10-11:05 centered 10:30, then down rest of day.
Worked great today, except for the gap all that did was get me in puts earlier.
Made 2 points.
Monday indicators are diverging so will have to study that but expect choppy waves.

Daily count from Advanced Get .

Saturday, August 27, 2016

Looking for rally Tuesday or Wednesday



Sat Aug 27th 4:26 PM ET
After loading all my data from vacation!
Getting buy signals, look for low Tuesday Aug 30 Spx 2150 +/-
Wednesday is orange day last 10 of 12 have been up.
It is also the 31st a good EOM rally will pursue.
Will it take out old high I don’t know.


Also working on a buy/sell program based on Joel GreenBlatt book @ Amazon
and some one named
Michael Carr
and his pattern x theory

I have refined these works to my own time frame and understanding, with out the wild claims from either.
Jerry O

Saturday, July 16, 2016

ST target 2111 SPX

OK we never got the gap down and still are marching for 2111 SPX .
Still over bought so nothing has changed. We could plunge at any time or rally due to the overbought condition.





After running my data:
We had an outside day considered bearish by me 70% of the time.
Wave 5 of v Advanced get.
Double top.
Super over bought.
4.94% model very overbought
My moon count looks favorable.
I think 2011 is still coming but we need a rest.
We will need a strong gap down Monday to set this up
 Jerry O   click chart to enlarge

Saturday, July 9, 2016

Are U ready for 2211 Spx M term

I have and remain bullish.
Using Advance Get and Friday rally we have switched from an ABC to wave 5 that should extend.
I don't know how A Get came up with 2211 in it's formula but here is mine.
Wave 2 =1891  Wave 3 =2111 or 220 Spx points
Wave 4 = 1991 + 220 = 2211
I have strong support at 2185 all on chart, I will post.
Good trading Jerry O


Wednesday, June 29, 2016

spx 2090



People who know me know I like 3 and 100
Advanced Get changed from a Wave 3 to a bullish wave C.
I should have said It yesterday it could change.
I look for 2090 either Ju 30th or July first.
"Nay Sayers" look at 2-11-16 a C wave.
We went from 1810 to 1930 in 3 td or 100+ pts
Gann angles loves it. 

 click to enlarge

Monday, June 27, 2016

Rally time

I have been pounding the table all day saying the market (SPX) is down but so is the  VIX.
NO one responded as if SO WHAT ?
Here is a chart to what I speak.
The green lines = SPX  and the red-black = VIX. When the VIX peaks like today but the SPX didn't turn up I expect a GAP higher in the SPX  and a meaning full rally.
click chart to enlarge.

Monday, June 20, 2016

I see no bears.

Simple trend lines show more than you think.

My dates have been +/- 1 TD  not bad.