FEED THE FISH click in water

Thursday, April 23, 2015

Cycle high


Wed 4-29 -15 close update
Broken record again.  Received a MA sell and a mechanical color sell. No EDT buy this time.
We did have an inside day I usually consider that bullish, however we had a -16.68 drop in momentum vs a drop of 7.91 Spx points. That calls for a lower price. If the market was to follow the DAX level we would be at SPX 2044 or Spy 204.5. My call is a sharp down at some point Thursday.
Jerry     EOM position challenge.
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Monday close update.
Received a MA sell and a mechanical color sell . However you can count 5 waves down and a EDT signal also posted. I think we need to watch Dax for weakness, need at least Spx 2097 to get the bearish juices flowing. No charts tonight.

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Still think we are near a cycle high and one more day could put the MFI into OB and the DPO giving a better signal.









30 CD Cycle looks about right. On 2 -25 we hit a high and closed 6-8 points below the high.
On 3-23 high closed 6-8 points below high.
On 4-23 high close 6-8 points below high with following.
A cycle H+H+H  look very good here. I expect a few days of strong weakness
.
Is this a top? Probably not because the 4.94% model would have us at Spx 2160  today.
I have a 4td MA on the MFI, very weak here. A better fit would have been O.B.
Jerry

Sunday, April 19, 2015

NO technical damage YET!

Other then the NYA we have not had the technical damage we would hope for.
I have a chart with $DAX over $SPX both are holding, but $Dax did plunge first and all eyes will be on it tonight.
I also have a $DAX lower in that chart with the 50dma just to show you we need a big break in the trend is going to change. The money flow did take a crazy dip on Thursday close
Erik Hadik says we are in for heavy selling I hope he is right.


Wednesday, April 15, 2015

2 signals

Thursday close. 2 signals. We had an inside day with a down day considered bullish by me.
I also have a short the rally signal.
If we rally strongly Friday then it is a short.
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Right from the open this was wrong.

I get a sell if we take out and close under SPX 2094.
To be honest I have had 8 wip buys and sells in the last weeks.
When one direction finally takes it will be a big move.
I’m neither bullish or bearish yet. Why “Wall of Worry is back”
Low interest rates and free money World wide.
If retail sells are strong it will move the market.
IE good news could plunge the market, because bad news has been holding it up.
 Ps Monday we had an EDT close calling for ideal -
low am and high close Tuesday that worked.
OF course the chart has to look like a EDT, ( just a formula only half works, but does
Alert me.)

Sunday, April 5, 2015

Distribution

John Murphy posted a chart showing the candle volume candles, with red candles larger than white.
This suggests more selling on down days.
To add to this chart I added the OBV and the A/D distribution  line.
Look for yourself.


Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Short Week

Sell signal IN.
Wednesday a wild day. I said if we close under 2060 everything would go to a sell in my stuff. Who knows what will happen the way we are so wild. I still have puts.
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Tuesday Evening close
Mechanical says today was EDT up signal.
Mechanical say today was inside day, I consider inside days bullish.
Facts say a close under spx 2060 everything goes to a sell and bulls in serious trouble.
I have no call as to true direction.  Jerry O
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Monday evening close,

Every thing went back to a buy with this big move up!

We would have to give this rally up real fast since we were barely oversold.

The only scenario I like for Tuesday is this: Monday was a EDT, so we open weak Tuesday, make an intraday high and then plunge.

If we open weak and just back off a little all day then more rally ahead.

Happy trading.

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Why we should worry about a correction

Friday-Close and update.
LOW could be Monday or Tuesday. Monday is 5 TD from last high. Thinking the bottom will come with a EDT close. That would put low Tuesday.
Friday was Inside day

inside day is bullish odds are better if down day, but it was up so I think it fails.
Every thing I have is still on a sell.
Chart shows the overbought area on Spx and other things

This chart is an indicator I call Planet V. It is supposed to show overbought,or oversold area.  This is a chart of INTC today showing a clear  OS position with indicator into the price area. I hope to smooth it out more.

Click charts to enlarge    Jerry O





 















Update Wednesday. More crossovers and a prediction


Just look at colors









 Here we have Planet V that I have had to ask someone in my group to help chart, but I have a lot more to add to it.   Ordering a chart book.
.




Tuesday 6pm March 24th 2015





He may not have the same take!





For data miners 8 weeks of data . hint they are screaming bullish @65%




Looking at my work we did get a MA crossover SELL and a bear bias marker

 
Jerry 

Thursday, March 19, 2015

Low Confidence

Still not getting the right numbers.W5 over laps W3 so no vote again.



 







Update at 12:15 Spx 2087.50
OK Last night I was unsure. Today at 12:15 PM ET after looking over the market action I need a close under 2081 SPX to get a serious trend change signal.
Lucky so far as I did short the close.
Stay tuned for tonight's report.   Jerry O




Going to make a low confidence call.

Outside day usually bearish.

Blow out day should be a down CIT.

Short above Spx 2099.50 could be zero or much more above.
Rates are not going up because things are getting worst , not really bullish,me thinks.



Low confidence because I have no sells on mechanical or ma’s.

I didn’t understand the EW pattern today.

We didn’t thrust into the close.

Jerry
Not investment advice.

Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Recap For Wed.


The EDT worked great but it was unplayable, damn.
Low was 11:20  am et
Wed mkt we have an inside day I consider it bullish. Of course it's Janet's day so who know's
Jerry


Recap Monday
We had the rally as predicted.
Monday Close  March 16th
Getting a signal we should look to short above Spx 2081.19. It could be zero above or 30 points above.
That's all I can say today.      Jerry O

EDT

Saturday, March 14, 2015

Rally Time

click charts to enlarge

 



Friday, March 13, 2015

Rally could be much ado about nothing!



Rally could be much ado about nothing!
My MA cross/over  still on a sell!
My mechanical model still on a sell!
We hit a fib level today. Charts way below.
I think we watch for high AM low PM. (3:30)
Spx 2056.70 is on my radar.

Charts
Advanced Get to my surprise offered daily close wave 3 with little up power.
Based on that I have lower my S#2
Live Elliot Wave offered no surprise but an intraday wave 5.