Monday, June 5, 2017

Resistance


It was an inside day I consider bullish but will go with Aget and this Chart.

Sunday, June 4, 2017

Short term top?

Advanced Get with 5 of V on June 2nd 2017


Friday, May 19, 2017

Cycle watch 22/26

Update- Sunday-  Goodness 7 up days in a row, did any one have that on their radar?
I guess I will have to see how this plays out till jobs number Friday. 

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Cycle watch- was 16th 17th big enough ?
I felt they would be up big unless they inverted and yes they inverted. I tried to buy OEx in the money calls both on the 17th close and the 18th open but 0 volume.

Week of  22-26 I have the 22nd double digit move dn and the 26th double digit move up polarity one up one down or inverted.
Jerry

Thursday, May 11, 2017

VIx is bullish 16th 17th???




May 16th -17th  on watch cycle!
Disclaimer: For fun and games use with your own work.
Short Term trading.
The week of May 15th to 19th or option expiration week with Oex as the lead group.
Using my color day pattern I see Monday down with Tuesday and Wed  as big rally days.
You should know by Monday close where we are going.

This is based on a cycle  ( my hidden cycle ) , of course with cycles it could
invert  IE: Tuesday Wed down big.

Read more about color days on this web site search delta-phenomenon.
Not a member noted as a courtesy only.
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The Vix and the top. I will attach the csv data for the vix showing the low vix of 9.97 both in Nov and Dec 2006 or 223 trade days to the top in 10-11-2007. The vix at that point in time was 18.xx. If you measure it from the Dec 06 low then less trade days but still a long way from a top
There is no top near with vix this low! Look for the top  in 2018. Will offer more later.
Jerry O
oops no data files aloud.

Sunday, May 7, 2017

One more rally




Looking for 2450 mid May



Monday will be interesting. Can you get any more overbought?

Monday, April 10, 2017

April 19,20,21 look bad

The time has come, could I be right?















 Dotted lines show weakness, and fits the 16 TD count I speak of in below charts.
Next week should show great weakness I think starting Wed. not investment advise.

















First lets look over this week.
10th -UP
11th-UP
12th-DN
13th-DN
Ahead:


Wednesday, March 1, 2017

March 2017

http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/?iid=H_MKT_QL
Gap UP I said , yes it did. Then my call for Monday happened PLUNGE.
Caught me off guard. See if we get a buy the dip rally.
No prediction, but indicator say gap down open

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Tuesday- No gap up nor did market do much all day.
Tuesday I look for a gap up again, mid day low would be bullish.

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Update Monday Mar 20th
Scenario Either we have an FBI rally or FREE Trade is Gone plunge
Lost charts at Stockcharts.com  ( who knew they could disappear) but here is what I have technically. GAP UP looks promising with a low at point 9 ( centered 11:15 +/15m) for a happy ending or
Point 8 is low and we have a bad ending.
I can’t agree with Oexcash that pt 7 is in a green day, so put in your opinion, anyone..
Jerry



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So far in 2017 as far as Advanced Get buy signals we have had a peak 16TD later, next one April 3rd.
 I have attached a 5 minute chart that shows the RSI divergence on Fri chart. You won't see that on time frames above 5 minutes.
BTW Advanced Get offers a buy signal Fri suggesting the Fed will be a buy the news event.

 

 CAUGHT THE 1:05 LOW FOR A FEW $$$
Monday  13th look for a gap dn open

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Looking for a gap down open Friday on jobs number, a gift if it happens.
I also look for a 50 point spx rally that probably started today Thursday at 2:10 2:15 
Today Thursday is 8 years from the 2009 low
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Gap dn it was with high AM in same window.
I look for AM rally Friday since we had a bullish close. Trouble so did mkt makers with $6-$8 speads .
Bought nothing
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Looked for a gap up and window dressing since it was March 1st, we got both.
Mar 2 nd have  3 indicators offering a gap dn and 1 a gap up. So no real call but think it will be an AM high day and then back and fill.
We have been OB but that means nothing.

Thursday, February 2, 2017

Feb. 2017 4.94% model

Looking for gap up Wednesday Mar 1st
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Friday closed very O.B. I look for a gap down in the shot term open. Now how over bought are we? Here is a chart of the 4.94% model. As you can see it can come quick or run for a few months like July -Aug 2016.
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Not a gap down but in a few minutes it went down.     Here is a shot of the low at 11:15 cross over.
 For Friday i look for a gap down open. Will watch for AM high.

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Just keeps climbing. Look for gap down open for Thursday
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Looking for an AM high for Wed.
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Friday couldn't rally fast enough.
Monday a bonus rally . For Tuesday I look for a gap dn open but an AM H
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New highs! Thursday looked like a gap up and it was. Friday looks again like a gap up. It's an AM Low day so we could again rally all day.
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 Sure was wrong about Tuesday. Looks to gap down Wed but should be a hi AM day.
I said we would see lower before 2300 SPX still true so far. Money still coming out of bonds. 
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Tuesday looks to gap down again. I don't see the bullishness or follow through from Friday.
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 Well Friday jobs number was a surprise. Surprised that it didn't take out SPX 2300..
BOP = (Close – Open)/(High – Low)*5   This tells me we at least near a ST high.
Monday is S2B-- Either Fri was the ST high or we see it Monday....!

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Update Thursday flat again not very telling. I still look for a correction. Why, earnings are 53% out, and bad earning come last. Fed speak is done. So what is the push higher? I can't think of anything long lasting.
Indicators look for Friday to gap down. I believe we will see 2233 spx/ 2200/ before we see 2300 again

Jerry
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The 1/2 way  point and strong resistance is Spx 2284.10


No matching buy on bottom indicator 2PM ET



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Flat day, tried to correct but Apple held it up. Indicator are mixed.
I hope to see us down as the EOM rally has been weak.

Tuesday, January 3, 2017

Jan 2017

UP date, gap sure was down.
We had the RSI     O.B. from 3pm to 4pm and other indicators call for another gap down.
Apple earning will probably hold that off temp. but expect over all a down day. 
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Hi Traders, Correction time
We saw the price high on 1-26-17, and the momentum high on 1-27-17.
I now look for 3 down days.
The gap for Tuesday 21st is down as we were O.B. at the close.
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Talia replied   from stockcharts,


Jan 23, 6:39am
Dear Jerry,

Thank you for contacting us. I apologize that the OBV and volume based indicators are not updated on the chart. For those indicators to update they require volume data and unfortunately our data vendor has had trouble sending us the intraday volume data.

Our data team is working with the data vendor to get this issue resolved.

Please let me know if you have any other questions or comments about our website.
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 Volume indicators still not working at stock charts.
So on hold.
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 Recap for Tuesday: We did get a drop but not as low as I hoped.
Wednesday should be a low AM day but I see the closed as O B with many indicators near there highs. StockChart volume indicator are down today so I can't make a firm call that I believe will work .
Not going to be surprised if we plunge again. 
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REcap for Friday, a high AM it was on a very tight day 7pts, but no hero's 
Tuesday Jan 17th I look for a drop if indicator holds. It was below the index all day.We need to finish wave 4 down gulp 2133 spx possible?




 http://stockcharts.com/articles/tradingplaces/2015/03/can-you-time-the-stock-market.html#at_pco=smlrebh-1.0&at_si=587c30acd0f50ff2&at_ab=per-2&at_pos=3&at_tot=5

Bowley based this above on 65 years of data.............................................................................

Based on my own work  I look for a deep drop Tuesday. That possibly should be bought if last tick is near the low.Then a rally into Friday sell the news day.( second thought low is wed AM then sharply rally since I have received 1 buy signal ) Jerry

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 Wed recap Day was a surprise rally
Thursday I did not post but was looking for AM low  that sort of balanced the 2 days.
Friday I have a mixed signal on the gap but do look for AM high, not sure what news lead is Friday do will stick with AM high for now. 
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 No call for Tuesday and we ended flat-not bad.
Wednesday  I look for an AM high, probably a gap up open, but flat for rest of the day. BB is flat and until it makes a statement ( breakout or break down) I will call flat. 87 NH/ 12 NL
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 Good Call again me thinks: I hinted at weakness, the AM was the low till 3:59 - 1tic.
Tuesday with the volume indicators not working , kills any thought I could have there, so looking at the BB it was all over the place today on tight trading and ended flat. Guess there will need to be someone call tomorrow.        https://www.briefing.com/investor/markets/market-internals/
internals not great but still I think we have a sell the news event on the 19-20th 

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Good call again for Friday, orange day indicator worked.
Monday is difficult, indicators say down open,Friday 114 NH,7 NL not strong, and B.B. broke down after mid day high, so looking for a low AM  day.
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 Good call for Thursday ( gap dn yes-AM high yes-slow day-yes) 
Friday gap indicators are mixed, no call, B.B moved up after mid day low so look for at lest a AM high, orange day indicator has failed of late but should offer higher prices for Friday


Today was strong 188 NH, 4NL-------- The B.B. was weak all day
Update for the 5th .
Looks like a gap down.  probably an AM high. or a slow day.Rethinking the Fed statement..




Advanced GET offers a buy, the last sell was great. Jan 3rd









Truthfully I felt we would rally into the last day of Dec 2016.

However we fell and this past week I received 2 buy signals.

Tuesday is and AM high day but could just keep running.

The indicators call for a gap down open but it hard to see one.

If there is a low it will be Wednesday 4th.
updated daily  Jerry

Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Dec 2016

Surprised I received a early buy signal Wed so I need to watch that.



Recap Thursday, low volume side ways drift
Fri- humm forgot to post,I had us drift higher all day.
Tues-Fri Happy New Year , I think low volume and we will drift higher all week.

 Recap Wed:
Must be in an inversion window since mkt has done opposite of my data. We had a gap up with high good at (9:50) but sold off. Thursday look for a gap up open with a 10:20 low and sideways to up close.
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 Recap Tuesday:
We had a useless low around 10:30 but the gap was a big up not dn.
Wednesday wants to gap dn again with a 10AM high, side ways to up close. 
If W2 +W3 =115 pts then Spx 2363 could be expected, but what ever last day of year bring is where I want to short .
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 Recap Monday: Little gap dn but 10:40 and 11:05 were highs still did the sideways move.
Tuesday Gap dn again is called 10:30 low but again flat. I think Wed will be a bigger up day. 
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 RECAP Fri-He He, we did just the opposite 9:35 h then a 10:40 high to run lower.
OK Monday looks mixed with 2 inside days in a row that I consider bullish but wasn't. Look for a gap down open then a 10:20 MAster low or a general time 10:05 low to regain rest of day or flat out.
Still look rlly into last day of DEc.
Here is what Advanced Get is saying. It called 3 days ago 5 of (3) with wave 4 downside.limited.









recap Thursday:
We did have a big upgap putting the HOD at 11:20 another valid time frame and flattened out rest of day.
Friday I look for a 10:30 low and run higher into the close' 
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Recap Wed  No gap but flat open,low 10:15 but PM just fell apart. Thursday looking for big up gap, 10:05 high then go flat rest of day.


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Recap Tuesday. Sure inverted. I looked for a 10AM high we got a 10:30 low that sent us higher all day.
Wednesday Again I look for a gap down or indicator do I should say. 10:20 low to flat day, then the Fed who knows but probably  relief rally.



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Recap Monday 12th 
High was at 10 AM not  10:30. High AM to low PM day it was.
Tuesday 13th I look again for the same play. Gap down , high AM, low PM day. The trend is still up till Dec 30th where I will get short.   Jerry




Fri recap:
Gap dn no! but rest of call was good. We had a 10:15 low (-5m) and again ran up higher.
Monday I again look for a gap dn with 10:30 high, but probably will close lower.





Thursday Recap: Low was at 10:11 and we ran higher all day. No real gap.
Friday Look for a  gap down  and again a run up Low @10:20 but centered @10:30.
Most are calling today "THE" high. I would wait for the retest if that is the case. My 1952 model says we rally into  end of Dec.





Wed recap: I was looking for high at 10:05 but had a low at 9:55, that killed the signal and we were SU all day.
Thursday look again for a gap dn ( 3 say dn) 10:30 low  and then run higher. Christmas rally in progress.



 Tuesday recap:

We did have a gap dn,    we did have the 10:20 low actual 10:25.
Wednesday Dec 7th Indicators are   mixed (up,up,dn) Since we are over bought close will look for gap dn,
then a  High  10:05 down rest of day, Time to break this uptrend or I'am wrong about AM high.
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Monday recap gap dn didn't happen, 10AM HOD did happen.
Tuesday Dec 6th looking for a gap dn  low AM probably 10:20, could be sharply lower.



Monday Dec  5th look for gap down open (3of 3 indicators). Expect a high AM probably 10 AM but many center it @ 10:30 AM. Looking for Spx 2085 soon.
Jerry O





Dec 1st  Thursday
I look for a gap up open, low AM day, rally most of day.
Recap we had a rally into 10:05 am not he gap up I would have liked, and we went down most of day.
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Dec 2nd indicators are mixed but expect gap up with AM  High could hold most of day.
Getting a early buy warning so we could have a big rally coming soon.
Jobs report moves markets.