1665-1671

Coming to fast .
1665 to 1671 with a new Aget of 1734

All Spx

Broke my 1616.01 target

Well we broke my long standing target of 1616.01 (lower down page)
Unless we turn down quickly, the math has us going to 1665.47   or the Advanced Get target of 1671.67.

Yes I'm surprised we got this far.
As long as the Fed can freely manipulate this market the sky is the limit. True the stock market is the only game in town but since the Fed is killing retirement plans,senior savings and health care, how can we trust them to bring us down softly.
Yes the most hated rally in history is still moving.
The Fed is failing really. A few good numbers on employment but what about all the bad numbers?
Make you stop and think what is leading and what is lagging!
Jerry

Monday update 4-29-2013

Still my best guess. and alternate.

 This is still my preferred count, we will need to start down fast. The Transports still strong is problematic and EOM  window dressing can be
very bullish.
If this fails we are still in wave  5 with targets on my spread sheet of  Spx 1608 to 1611 still possible.
See below  and further down the AGET  alternate count.

The Advanced Get alternate count (click to enlarge) has us in a Wave 4 with wave 5 to come.
The hope is this will fail but even if it didn't my spreadsheet offers only a little higher, making a double top and a slim new high. Spx 1598 to 1599.67.

The big picture is we are very close if not already at a top. It will take a few years to complete the down move.

Jerry O

Retest coming EOM rally?

 First we have Ninja trader calling a low in the Spy.
Others to consider are new highs, railroads all turned up.

"

"The Fed is currently buying $85 billion worth of U.S. Treasury and mortgage-backed bonds every month, and is expected to vote to maintain that pace at its upcoming meeting on April 30-May 1.  "

 This I built with Gann angle boxes, and yes we did over shoot so low will be later than I thought.
I will rework this chart when time permits.

I think this is where we are with wave A in and on our way to retest the high with a failure I hope.
Copper is out of control, with other metals that
surpport  a robust ecomony  not happening I can get sober.
There is talk of a housing bubble as we speak.

Copper and Silver going to pull us down?

 Here we have copper, can't get out of it own way.
How can it be going down if we are having a strong housing market and cars are selling like crazy??? Don't know but it's not good.

SLV  against the $spx cash.
Gold has broken support but as yet SLV is hanging on. ( no chart)
I don't see how SLV can diverge the SPX with out a pull down.
I consider SLV more of an industrial metal.

Red Flag remains this week!

Click charts to enlarge

Red Flag is UP

Wed April 3rd 2013
So many groups broke down today I have to put up a red caution Flag.
I think we need to be prudent to see how the  market will unfold here. Meaning I don't know if the high is in till we see the retest. We have to consider the EMP # Friday.
I had a target of 1576 so will consider 1573 as very possible ending the rally.
Jerry O     1571-1549=22/2 =11+1549= 1560  Target 1560 ish to short again,Thursday
Fun and games of course.

Higher we go.

Disclamer, all I know about EW is what Advanced Get tell's me!
This first chart is when I called the bottom as a member of the Time and Cycles site. Many EW people said I was totally wrong and the program was junk.unhuh!
I notice that in bear trends that the 5th wave is short with the gravy wave 3 or some call a C is very long

The latest count of March 2013 has a weekly view with a target of 1576.03 Spx if the wave is not extended.
I find in the program that bull trends have a lot of wave extensions. The weekly fan is getting tight.


click charts to enlarge.

The daily is up close and personal.
Here we see a target of 1616.01 with more fib relationship. BTW the 5th wave doesn't have to be straight up if extended so a few bumps could happen. You will noticed  the built in targets of the program are 1599.99.
The green and  red lines are program bias, some work perfectly.
1616-1576 = 40 point spread.

OEX and XSP ration are bullish for  Monday, day after a triple witch could be weird.
How will I know if I will be wrong?
If 1530.93 falls by more than 1 TD this count is wrong.

Are we at a top NO!

 Click image to enlarge.
Why do I make a bold statement like that? History.
* 1st Chart is 2007 high where the Dow and Spx peaked together with a 16TD cycle (roughtly)
That Oct 11th was a GREEN DAY
look at Color days to left under favorites. Volume got heavy 16TD before top.

Next we have the chart of 2000 highs
You will notice or still remember that the Dow did the job on Jan 14th
 2000 a RED DAY and the SPX hit a high on March 23rd  with Dow close, a 16td pattern and a BLUE DAY


The 1987 CRASH, I don't have a chart since the data is hard to find.
Here is what I found out.In 1987 the heavest volume was a Aug 11th a BLUE DAY  and 10td  before top. On the Dow the actual closing high was 8-21-1987 a GREEN DAY.
Yet the Dow theoretical high was on Aug 25th and the Spx intraday and close I 337.89 c 336.77.
A GREEN DAY. Funny HANKS says a green day is go, I say run.
StockCharts in their history charts show 335.89 spx I don't know what gives there.

SO GREEN days are high on the list.
Early heavy volume and 16TD, high on list.

AND SPX MUST HIT A HIGH near the DOW.
Yes we can have a big correction but it won't be over till the SPX  fat cats sing!
Jerry