FEED THE FISH click in water

Friday, February 27, 2015

We are close 4.94%


This 4.94% has picked every top for the last few years based off of the 125SMA.
At 2115 SPX we hit that %+, sure it could range for a few more days but chances are something big will blindside us.The end of month window dressing is over etc. Greek rethink,Fed funds etc.
The VIX is also in place to rally. I bought some June 14 calls on the vix they seemed to be the cheapest option around. OEX and SPX were priced to perfection.
Happy trading Jerry O
BTW the kidney stones were removed, very painful, today first time no pain at all.




Friday, February 20, 2015

DN CIT

update close 23rd
So far not ready to fall. We are over bought.There is a 96% correlation to the 1956 stock market that was a very choppy year. We need a gap down at the close to change the air or pattern.

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Going to add a few charts I think worked.
Looking for Spx 2010 by next Friday the 27th based on this CIT on today's close. (19th) Hopefully it will be  WAVE A of an ABC  as pictured below.

click charts to enlarge   Jerry O





Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Oil in free fall?

Update posted at 10:30 Pm on the 18th
Reviewing my work *I see today is an inside day -I usually consider that bullish if it is near a low but I don't think we are at a low so watch that one.
* 4 TD  sum of volume is low showing confusion with traders.
*Blowout days. I have not spoke of that of late but today was the lowest reading since the last high on 12-29-14 .  FWIW.



I don't know if OIL rules the Stock Market or not but looking at these charts I would think it has a big hold over the market. The only reason I bring this up is the big dip in USO and OIL today the 18th Feb.
After hours the drop continues. I write in Red because I'm bearish.







Jerry O
I expect fireworks with the options this last 2 days.


Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Down Wednesday

Today was not a good day.
We jammed the close.
We had the Vix up with the SPX = down next day ( 85% of time)
The market internals were not great with deciners more than advances. The last 1/2 volume was a hedge trade I would suspect.


Monday, February 16, 2015

2088 on watch for Tuesday 2-17



The last high we had was on 12-29-14 @ 2093.55 Spx leading up to that we had 8 days in a row of higher highs. Currently 2-13-15 we have 4 Days of higher highs. If we look at the Market internals for the 29th we see a strong thrust into the close with 2/1 advances but nothing as strong as last Friday where we had 190 new highs only 5 new lows and 2/1 up volume. Friday the 13th was much more greedy all around.

I don’t give it more than 2 TD if that greed rate keeps going.



The Advanced Get chart I have built offers a pitch fork nightmare putting us right in that triangle. I offer 2088 as a line in the sand.

You will notice AG has us in a Wave 5 configuration so a sharp move down of 100 SPX points would be expected when we turn.

Is this the final top, I have no clue.

Jerry O

 12-29-14

 2-13-15

Thursday, February 12, 2015

Froth

I can't say when it will happen, ( vix @15.45 today)perhaps a few more days of rally. A new high should make it happen. What will happen is an overbought condition that can reverse real fast.
On my chart you will  notice at the last ATH 2093 we went to 1992 in 5 TD's.
The next chart shows the MFI on the bottom also in the overbought area.




Sunday, February 8, 2015

Quad

Friday I would like to believe that the quad resistance played a part in the turn down.. You will notice we were also at the 78% level.





















I would get a CIT and trend change around 2045 ish.

Monday, February 2, 2015

Why stop at resistance?

First the bad new, home heating oil just went up 8 cents a gal in my area, so maybe oil is at least resting.
As far as the market I had a mechanical trend change to up. Nothing else to tell me any thing.
I sure don't like where we stopped, but if we can break higher to next resistance that would be strength..



Saturday, January 31, 2015

Thursday Low

I would like to believe that Thursday was the low of this cycle.
If you see the triple top on my chart, that I should have seen at the time, then why not a tripe bottom as seen now. I also should have used my stop at 2038.
In the market there are always second chances to get it right, if you don't go broke.
Monday could drop to 1972 and rebound strongly but I think we will know right at the open. I really don't expect that plunge.


Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Reverse back up? UPDATE

 Unless this chart is something!
We are on a sell and trend change unless we can close above ( not sure yet)  I did buy a Oex put  midday $5 and sold for $10 on close. Why because I think this chart is bullish. We will see!

UPDATE Not looking good here at 2:30 PM Wed. Trend change to down and sell signal based on Spx 2030 line in sand.

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No chart, just facts as seen by my eyes.
Trend is still up.
No blow out day, but still I think we reverse back up.
Support at 2019 again held.
Did buy an OEX 890 call at $9.90 hoping for $17
EDT  close?  Maybe.  :)
Apple and Fed could push us up.
Jerry