Saturday, November 10, 2012

Option week, but trend still down

And we hit 1391 like a brick wall with a fairly weak close.

"I go with 1266  :-* then 1166  or 20% 1266 Spx sure, 1166 iffy
The short term rally should be as Rxxxx indicates 1400 expiry. I have 1402-1410 and a rare out side chance we could see 1419 (a very strong sell.)
The Spx seems to be front running today more balance Monday.
 Hadik 14-16 high
I have a 144TDL 26/27th
So far upvol peaked at 1PM  or 74%"
 Saturday Current thoughts market could pull back Monday offering a buy and push higher into Thursday
possible Friday. The more we drop Monday (if we do) the less upside. Drops will be fast in a bear market. I gave my targets above.

Here we have the Treasury Bond and $$$
playing togetherness.
click and chart to enlarge.
As I said last week 9 chart below away's the
Dollar has bottomed .

How can this be good?

The RailRoad Index topped, then gapped down ,
later the gap was filled and weakness is the norm.

 New York Advance rolling rolling
long standing  target 1266 as marked.

 My view of John Murphy 13/34 ema
We are in the yellow so look left for the future.
Macd and PPO confirming

The P&F I built had a target 1350 now lowered
 to 1290. Kind of say's 1350 is real possible.
Why not on the 1290 bandwagon here?
Seems a little too soom.
The P&F has a 25 point miss so far as I can tell
with my experience .

What is this? This is my buy- sell model on the NDX.
It is not on a buy yet.
Do not risk money on this unless it agree's with your own work. Fun and games only.

So in the land of majic how would this work.
First you need to get oversold (18) taking a position long (calls) then on a rally if after 6 Trading days it not above 50 sell cash.
If after 6 trading days it's heading for 70 then consider selling on a down turn 73 for sure.
Will this get the top no remember this is option model sell premium.
The mood  of market seems to come back to 30
in green a fast move and calls again with same 6 TD scenario. As we all know the market can stay over bought for a long period of time so no (puts) are suggested unless 73 - 70 is breached.

Thursday, November 8, 2012

Trend still dn but OS

Today was the 30 TDL of the 10-40 tdc. Was it the final low not by a long shot.
We could of course bounce here  looking at the oversold condition of the market. The horizontal lines tell the worst depths.
Jerry O

Monday, November 5, 2012

$ has bottomed

$USD has bottomed.
Reading Eric Hadik free news letter, he say's it all about the $.

Looking at my chart the trend indicator I use has crossed to a buy.

The blue down trend line maybe gave a better buy.
I would guess a strong $ rally will push stocks down and killing already weak earnings.

Jerry O