Friday, October 29, 2010

Getting Tight on watch

Friday EOM rally?
Support 1 is 1177.41 and that should hold, Support 2 is 1171.04 and I have an aggressive sell at
1171.65, if that falls 1155 comes fast with that being major support.

Scenario: Friday is a blue day. The last blue day was 10-25 the day we hit 1196.16 @10:am.
Now turn that chart upside down and the low is at 10:00am possible 10:30 am to give an S2L look.
Let see if it happens as we firm rest of day

However breaking 1171.65 things get serious fast use standard TA as a help.

Thursday, October 28, 2010

The Good and Bad intra week

In Sept we had 6 days that had 85% up vol days and zero dn lower than 10%
In Oct we have so far 1 day with 85% up vol day and 1 day with 10% dn vol.
A sign of weakness for sure.
The bullish news here is the Isee is bearish = bullish
The Vix above 20 is bullish since it was above 20 most of Sept.
I have a 109/and a 110 TDH hitting 28th and 29th connect it to EOM window dressing looks up to me. Thursday I think 1174.82 will hold, but I have an aggressive sell at 1170.09, not really expected. Of course we need to watch because the model uses just the facts man.

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

On watch

On watch for a sell signal.
1172.74 on a close basis would do it.
Problem: we are 12.88 Spx away, other sells have been in the 5 point range.
That is why I call this on watch, not an alert.

This is the first trend signal I have had since 10-4 but next day opened much higher and was cancelled.
The 26th has many clusters of cycles. seen below.

Sunday, October 24, 2010

Pending market action 25th -29th

So far trend still up. I have a sell at 1166 SPX.
The 25th and 26th Cycles I thought were going to be lows could be CIT highs.( combo of 89,55,18 TDL clusters. Still look for the H&S 10 yr pattern to happen baring a take out much higher than 1207. chart below.
Trend Model
Long Term ---up
Med Term ---up
Short Term---up
pressure-- up topping
Mechanial model --Dn
Other than early I don't know but it is stuck.
Isee model weak.