My 2011 Outlook

Click image to expand.

Vix at 16

recap-Last week was a very quiet Triple Witch for sure, this week click vix chart to enlarge.


Let's look at the vix over the years. You will notice that when we get to 16 over the last few years we have had topping action. Just need to watch, and I start to pick up 1220 SPX as a level that could turn us down. Just saying and I think it will be a higher number.

Wave C,wave X, wave 5 or extended?Some targets.

Looking at a chart on http://blog.afraidtotrade.com that told me something basic so I expanded on it to my liking. The daily gives a few of my price targets .
But you really need to look at the weekly to see how important the support and resistance area's truly are going back years.

Option Week, triple witch. SPX

The BOYZ just love her.....................................................

Dec 2010 Options and Triple Witch. ..........Knowledge is power!

Based on an unscientific view of Options expiration for all Decembers since 1998 to 2009 I have come to one main idea.

To try to paint this with one brush it looks like my theme would be:

Do the opposite of what ever Monday does. ( i.e. if Monday up then rest of week is mostly down, Friday afternoon always iffy) .

Drilling down 1998,2000,2002(except Fri),2003,2007,2008 (dn,Monday big 44pt rally Tuesday was too much then down rest of week).2009 Up Monday net dn to Friday am)

1999 failed this theme a little where Monday was dn a little and Tuesday was down a lot , then rallied rest of week

2001 a bear year rallied most of week, 2006 same rally all week...

2004 and 2005 interestingly had MTW up Th F dn

JPG attached look at blue weeks, click image to expand.

Jerry

Froth target 1263

Many over bought signals like the Isee hitting a new 2010 high today. The % up volume with froth. The tick 1071 etc all call for small pull backs. When the froth covers the crystal ball on wall street expect 100 spx down points .
When is that I don't know, if I did I would share it.
I would like to see a high tick with hi arms. I think we are in 12-31-08 to 1-6-09 period of froth.
Click image to enlarge

Bear for Christmas?

I have the % volume OB, I have the 3 TD Isee OB.
This chart shows how the Spx shoot above the Pitchfork but came back to home. It also shows AGET version of a (5) of 5 EW, yes we could go higher and remain in this (5).
What we have here is the relation of the Vix @ 17-18 and how it should interface with the Spx.


My little numbers runner offering a RISKY short watch the number I have circled. Think we could drop into the 17th/20th where I have a 144TDH but think it will invert. Target should be 1206 at least.

Test Model

Could it be this simple? Well yes it can if you are not trying to be perfect and pick the top and bottom. The numbers I use are good the words are a day off or need adjustment.
I spent a lot of time getting this to formulate right. All I have to do at this point is drag across, for the days I look at 2 many charts and have a mind freeze, or read too many emails.
Anyhow SPX 1206/7 has always been my buy sell line so a pullback to get on board is in the works.

click image to enlarge. KEEP IT SIMPLE! OH & FEED THE FISH, please!

Fools Rally ?

If we look at the upvol/totvolume we see Sept 1st,2nd pattern and the rally should pull back no later than Friday close/Monday open.
However if we look at the adv/totadv we notice this is not as strong as the Sept 1,2 pattern but they look the same. So we went up but not as broad based as Sept. so how much more can we run.


Standing aside for 1 more day..

On hold for 24hrs

Since we came back again to my buy/sell line I will hold short 1 day to see if this can hold. A 93% up volume day an thinking my 144TDH hit today instead of yesterday. Stay loose.

Trend Still down unless

I counted today as a 144TDH from the flash crash and I think that is why we held up. If right after a gap up open I think we back off rest of the day

This is a chart of the $BPOEX showing a divergance and signs of a top.
Sure we can bounce after this many down days but we are not oversold.
Are we still in a trading range of 1173 to 1200? Well till something breaks or we take out 1206 Spx the Trend is still down.
Here is an interesting chart I made with gann box from the July 2007 high, it didn't work from the ATH in Oct 2007. Kind of showing a 32 week pattern. We can watch this unfold if it does.
click image to expand
Feed the fish please.

Trend Still down unless

Monday 29th EOM
The trading range should be over this week as the Blue week did make a lot of noise.
This week we have a Red week that suggest a trend will emerge.
Unless we can blast above 1206 that trend is down.



click image to enlarge

Trend Still down unless

Are we in a trading range of 1173 to 1200 Spx? We go up ,over bought, down oversold.
If we break 1173 a fall to 115x is fast. Nothing sticks out at me this PM but the market thinks it is now over sold. ( market has a personality)
Let the price rule. On this Blue week we have had a H, H, so tomorrow is a L
A gap up in the am could turn down rest of day, We now have room to see what happens.
I could lower the stop at 1206 but I won't.

Trend Still down unless

1206/1207 stop go flat. Spx The second sell is at 1199.xx but so close to the buy/sell line we just ride with the 1206 position in an ETF.
This is a Blue week as the chart will show. You will notice many are noisy sideways affair's.

Click image to enlarge.

New people this is a trending model and it will not pick tops or bottoms but the right trend can run 3 to 6 months. I can't pick prices well,so just get on the train and ride .
Jerry

Trend Still down unless

Hi Everyone,
Perhaps I'm a bear at heart and that is why I built this trend model. What have we got that is bearish... I didn't like the fact we closed within .24 of the Spx high Friday. IF you take the high 1227.08 -low 1173.00 =54.08/2 =2704 1227.08 - 2704 is 1200.4 right at my Bull/Bear line.
The Isee seems bullish, letter writters are bullish,( all = bearish) my Parabolic (sar) is bearish, pressure, all telling me this 1173 wasn't a bottom.

Bullish thoughts well Thankgiving week has a bull history, and even with things over bought it can go higher. If Monday wants to gap should be telling.
Short weeks are pressure weeks so expect some big moves with no volume to support them.
Or the gamers week :)

I know Jaywiz at www.jaywiz.blogsot.com looks for weakness into the 29th This is on my favorite bloggers list lower right.
Steve however who have a special price looks higher with 1231 on target for Thanksgiving weekend at http://pugsma.wordpress.com
email pu_gridiron@yahoo.com
Tell him I sent you. trendsby3 jerry
Happy thanks giving to the ones that embrace it.

How important is 1200 to my trend model?

See for yourself. Trend still is down big rally of a junk IPO stock like GM or not today.

click image to expand.

So SPX 1200 is hold or fold line , 2nd position and 1206 is the first -stop sell.
Now this is all on a closing basis.

Keep thinking profit takers will show up before the close.

Several trend followers I follow all wondering??

Astro Event Thursday?

Many of my astro friends are bullish here today...11-18-2010

When has there been this many proclaimed bulls??
I'm starting to get bearish. The AAII,odd-lots,Issee all bulls.

OK my call Thursday is gap and crap as GM sucks up so much money it creates an
air pocket.
This is dangerous times as the herd runs wild..

Fwiw and sure nothing

Anyhow, a stop at 1200 spx to change the trend back to up. I don't expect it with all services fully bullish.

Trend down unless

For Wednesday:

We pulled into the drive in theater and the movie "how low can we go" was playing. Suddenly the lights went out and a sign said "to be continued"

My take on this drama is we need a lower open to rally, or stand aside .
Why ? I looked for 1% upvol we got 7%. That is equal to 8-30-10 action.

I will not dwell on this. We either open with down gap 8 to 16 SPX points or the low could be near the close and Thursday is low AM or something else is happening.

Looking at Futures at the moment looks higher open.
See you all in the am. I need some sleep.
Jerry

2nd Sell 1199.21 SpX

First sell at 1206, second today on yesterday close at 1199.21.
Lets face it today with the gap up and hold till the last 15M it was hard to take or get a position so I remain with only 1206. The 1206-7 sell area held today because when we got their the market was extremely over bought. I held. Wednesday I hope we head for 1181 or 1189 at least.

One small problem with a 85% record, is vix dn +spx dn = up
Next we had isee @ as a bullish group reporting 161 only 25 points from the April high should = Bearish.
Remember I have a 144TDL, and a 8tdL on the 17th from the April high and Nov high.

Side Note
Cold weather Mouse problems and other issues. Check my link to BORAX and it's many uses.

On a Sell

Simple speak.
I recieved a Sell at 1218 Wednesday close, next day open was gap down using the worst price that day ( not the best price ) we are in at 1206.Using the worst price so you can see there is still much gravy. Friday close another sell so we don't know what Monday will bring for a price. If rally Cover at 1206 go flat. zero loss.However it is based on the close so OMG you may have to gamble.

Target 1118.50 where strong support appears.

Go to the Blog, for charts, of parabolic model, spread sheet, and the trend model and the BUY-SELL record.

http://trendsby3.blogspot.com/ CHARTS BELOW.

Buy Sell record of Trend Model

On 8-9-10 Aggressive sell was issued at 1122 Spx

On 8-12-10 Cit confirmed sell at 1082

On 8-30-10 a cover all was issued at 1171

So 1122-1171 = 51 points

1082-1171= 11 points

Total 62 point + capture.

Depending on what 2 ETF’s you bought a $1500+ win.

On 9-2-10 buy at 1080.39 the open. Hard to do so make it 1085

9-7-10 Cit buy 1105 easy to get many chances.

I didn’t log it clear at the Blog I will admit.

Thus 1206 – 1085 = 121 points

1206-- 1105= 101 points

Total 222 points capture

Of late Upgrade model to catch faster markets.

Speculative, aggressive and Cit models.

On 11-11-10 cover and sell 1206 speculative

Now 11-12 aggressive sell at close or cover stand aside at 1206

resistance one. is at 1208.45 so ball park

Facts: The trend model can NOT pick tops or bottoms.

Does not work in fast markets. Like the period of 5-25-10 to 7-1-10 low.

From the 1010 low I never started to get a buy till the 1060-1070 level.Stilll (1122-1070 = 52 spx points

That was unacceptable. Thus the upgrade to a faster and more risky model.

I have been working with this for 2 years and feel it is close to a winner.

I have been manipulating a true time and price model the Parabolic (SAR =stop and reverse) by Welles Wilder to help me out.

Enjoy my signals while they are free. LOL.

At this point it is only used with your own work.

Jerry O

Very Speculative Sell

Update Thursday Close- Added another star to parabolic. Trend model saying 1179 a stable sell.
S2 @ 1200 and my 1198 chart. I have to repeat my model can't pick tops or bottoms.
*Wednesday***************************************************************************
Since we had a gap down lets not pad (1218), in @ 1206 on the speculative signal.





click on image to expand.

Trend Still UP unless

To far from a pivot point to change the trend. Pull backs are welcome .

Weekly H&S

3 weeks ago I posted this Weekly H&S chart with a target of 1197.80 SPX and of course our close today was 1197.96. We can say we are in close range to a top if we keep churning and stay under or near 1206.18.
Advanced Get offers a Wave 4 weekly with a possible A B C. to tie every thing together.



The next chart is a Wilgo (Larry Williams) look to some extent.
Vustx:Fagix overlay-ed on the Spx. This also suggest we are close to a top.


Click image to expand

Trend Still UP unless

We need a close under 1177.80 Spx to turn trend down.
Jerry

Trend Still UP unless

We need to break 1174.24 Monday SPX probably not going to happen.
Will add some simple 8TD cycles but direction form them unknown.
Click images to enlarge.

Getting Tight on watch

Friday EOM rally?
Support 1 is 1177.41 and that should hold, Support 2 is 1171.04 and I have an aggressive sell at
1171.65, if that falls 1155 comes fast with that being major support.

Scenario: Friday is a blue day. The last blue day was 10-25 the day we hit 1196.16 @10:am.
Now turn that chart upside down and the low is at 10:00am possible 10:30 am to give an S2L look.
Let see if it happens as we firm rest of day


However breaking 1171.65 things get serious fast use standard TA as a help.
Jerry

The Good and Bad intra week

In Sept we had 6 days that had 85% up vol days and zero dn lower than 10%
In Oct we have so far 1 day with 85% up vol day and 1 day with 10% dn vol.
A sign of weakness for sure.
The bullish news here is the Isee is bearish = bullish
The Vix above 20 is bullish since it was above 20 most of Sept.
I have a 109/and a 110 TDH hitting 28th and 29th connect it to EOM window dressing looks up to me. Thursday I think 1174.82 will hold, but I have an aggressive sell at 1170.09, not really expected. Of course we need to watch because the model uses just the facts man.

On watch

On watch for a sell signal.
1172.74 on a close basis would do it.
Problem: we are 12.88 Spx away, other sells have been in the 5 point range.
That is why I call this on watch, not an alert.

This is the first trend signal I have had since 10-4 but next day opened much higher and was cancelled.
The 26th has many clusters of cycles. seen below.
Jerry

Pending market action 25th -29th

So far trend still up. I have a sell at 1166 SPX.
The 25th and 26th Cycles I thought were going to be lows could be CIT highs.( combo of 89,55,18 TDL clusters. Still look for the H&S 10 yr pattern to happen baring a take out much higher than 1207. chart below.
Trend Model
Long Term ---up
Med Term ---up
Short Term---up
****************
pressure-- up topping
****************
Mechanial model --Dn
Other than early I don't know but it is stuck.
********************
Isee model weak.

Tuesday report for Wed.

Tuesday plunge, was Monday the high. I don't know.
I do know For Wednesday we have support 1 at 1157.73 and i think that will hold if we even get that low.
I also have an aggressive sell at 1157 to confirm a trend change.

Not thinking this is it yet. But 1157 knows all. SPX
Jerry

Pending Market Action

Not much has changed in one week as we get more over bought.
I still look for high ahead of us. The 25th-26th low I looking for could be highs .(inverted)
My official sell is at 1142 SPX trend model, but will offer 1155 SPX for the next few days.
Banks look to break down, and earnings should be in general high gear this week, after that I don't know what the bulls would want.

2 charts weekly showing the yr.2000 -10 year pattern and a current possible H&S pattern with the Advanced Get wave 4
Upside possible target 1197 to 1206 but 1155 would offer panic down. Nothing bullish about QE2, me thinks.
Wave 4 click image to enlarge

Pending market action

Sunday Oct 10-2010

Trend Model
Long term ----up
Med term------up
Short term----up
***************
Pressure -- up--topping
***************
Mechanial model --Dn
**************
*Isee model--- up-topping
Review
Friday was so flat as far as tick and trin compared to pressure
that I'm not sure what it means. No history to review.

TD hits 55 TD L 13th from 7-27H, 55TD H from 7-30 L
Oct 26th 89 and 55TDL
Oct 25thL sub divide 144/ =TDL see chart way below.


*The Isee
In 2007 to 2009 confirmed tops where at 500+ and bottoms -290
In 2010 some thing changed and that number will remain with me, since
I have done a lot of back testing.

Quiet before the storm

Going back to April I can't find a day like today as far as pressure,tick and trin combo.

Have to report that mechanical is still on a sell and trend is on a buy less 1137 SPX falls.

Jerry

More smoke and mirrors

Today Wed 6th was a lot like 7/27/2010. On that day back on 7-27-2010 with pressure,tick and trin similar. If that is the case we should have a lower day Thursday.

Smoke and Mirrors by the Fed.

I look for a 1day 1/2 pullback.
If yesterday was the 23rd, today was the 24th. Similar pressure,tick and trin.

On watch

My latest number based on Monday action has moved the aggressive sell to 1135 spx. from 1132.
My model see's nothing else.

Technically today had a 9-23 look with the tick,trin and pressure at similar levels but not exactly.
So a hugh gap up could cool the down side so be on watch. Remember my buy or sells are based on the close number. I think 1141 is a pivot and barcharts has resistance at 1146.17.

My best guess is we have a weak open and low PM close.


Jerry

Sell alert Imminent !

Based on my Friday warning and further study I think we are ready to fall.
Upside pressure have been waning on my pressure model not shown.

First up is my mechanical sell system chart from excel click any image to enlarge.You will notice in 10 days we have a magnet at 1141 and a break of that could be real early confirmation.

Next up is my trending model excel sheet and how important 1132 spx is for a signal in test mode.

Next we have a my TD counts and sub counts, based on this I look for lows ahead as posted in chart.

We then have my AGET ew count, several fractals with their out comes,and then the MACD indicator with standard setting and my setting.

Now of course we are at such and area that I could be fooled.
Jerry- Good Luck..................................

Friday Oct 1st 2010

My trend model on a close basis has an aggressive sell at 1126 Spx. We could clearly have some serious damage if we close below 1131.89 putting me on a sell for Monday then.

Trend is UP till we confirm a CIT (change in trend )

I don't understand why many EW guru's have the market going sideways for 3 to 5 more days?
Guess we will find out!

update at 3:30

I have been out all day and just returning.
Based on spx at 1142.76 I get an aggressive sell at 1126.
If the market dips into close that 1126 should move up point for point.

Still looking for a major low 11-16 based on the 144TDL cycle

Advanced Get view

Click chart to enlarge.

Latest update

Just updating from yesterday vacation mode :)
Aggressive sell for today spx 1119
For Wed based on 3:37 Today @1146.52 aggressive sell spx 1123

On hold

I can't generate another number till we flat line again. All CIT's come when the market flat lines because tops roll.
Perhaps Tuesday and Friday = a double top but need more info.
Trend is up till I can get a reading. Spx 1125 gap interesting and needs to be watched.

Close but to what?

We did hit the high Tuesday and perhaps you nibbled short there.
I'm on watch for an aggressive sell at 1112 spx for Friday. I don't think it will happen since other work suggest we are closer to a low. Let the market speak.
Since 9-17 we have followed the market up with sell numbers of course not realistic till today.
(test 1079,1084,1083,1092,1102,1112)
Since 1112 is only good for Friday,I suspect we rally some and close on a new sell number higher than 1112.
We want to see what comes first.

I'm on vacation but will try to do a last hr run of data.

J

Remember this is a trending model it will not pick exact tops or bottoms.
LOY projected to be 11-16-10 +/- 2 TD price unknown.

Hedging top Monday or Tuesday

We have reached what is looking like a C.I.T. (change in trend )area.
The model is offering yesterday spx 1079, Friday 1084, so the fact it is now offering
numbers means a small position in a bearish ETF is now fruitful.
We could based on cycles have a higher high Monday and or Tuesday ( Fed day) based on
the 55TDH from 1010 low 7-1-10 or a minor 144TDH from the last time we saw a number
under 1086.02 from 2-25-10 minor low.
From there we went straight up to 12xx.
Based on all this we should see major low 11-16-10 +\- 2 TD
What level I wish I knew.
So be on top alert next few days NIBLE short with stops.
I will post the actual aggressive sell when it hits.

Pressure model has now dropped below 50 warning of weakness.
We don't have to take out 1131.47 to have a top. The first number is a throw away the exhaustion number or second number is king.
Jerry O

Top by Monday

For Wednesday (15th) I have a 144TDL (from 2-19H) Blue day some type high @ 10:30amET

Trend model still bullish.
Pressure gave a warning to day the trend maybe changing.

Trend is UP, top watch

On Top watch.
OOps,
I made an oops when I failed to belive my trend program.
I should have offered an aggressive buy on 9-2 @ 1080.39 the best you could have go, with a gap up open. Next on 9-7 it offered a 1104 cit that hit on 9-9 had I reported it a better price was at hand.

SO TREND IS UP.
I will add a target of either 1121 squaring 1039 or a fib of 1130 all Spx
What we want is a shot to one of these numbers then a close below day before.
I will add we have UP pressure at this time since that secret number is above 50.
We also had a small move in a ratio that offers a big move. ( could be round trip)

Support 1091 both break even and real support.


Will the boyz come back and sell this???

CIT in the works.

Breaking above 1105 spx if it holds, puts the trend to up.
I don't know :( I'm in denial fighting my model :)

So many have the EOY at spx 1250 based on earnings that are as we know, from cuts not expansion .

Compression week working

Compression week is working as the tight range is getting ready to bust out, as I start to get over bought
Lets put some numbers on this. Resistance at 1105 still holding.
Spx 1105 we rally, 1090 we test lower.
Longer term to see how important this R line @ 1105 really is,is this chart of the SPX market. We test the lower line again it won't be friendly.



Click chart to enlarge..................................

Resistance 1105 spx

Strong resistance at 1105 Spx. Downtrend line, fib hit and SQ 180 degree from 1039 hit.
As far as the trending model it offered a aggressive buy at 1080.39 (9-02) not reported.
We have a bullish CIT if we remain above 1088 for Tuesday.
Next few days should tell us if this was a violent bear rally or there is legs under this market.

Our 1122& 1082 purchase we covered at 1070/71 or at the market when I posted that info, so at least 62 spx points bagged that should be at least +$1500 depending on the 2 etfs.

Flat till model can catch up.

We sold at spx 1070/1071 . I will stand aside now till the air clears.
The big rally was not seen sorry to say.

Still looking down

Edit Wednesday Night .
Still not over sold and looks like max pain is 1050 on Spx into Friday so we watch.
We could center that price by Friday.
J.O.








Holding short or in bearish ETF.s
We never got close to 1070SPX so we hold. I think low is days away yet.

Think about covering.

The Friday low looks to be here. Not as low as I had hoped.Friday at 2:35 Pm ET you can cover your shorts at 1070 if hit or right now @ 1062 if you want, but this may only be a gap fill to 1067 and for sure it is an over sold bounce.
You bought a bearish ETF at 1122 or better on 8-9, a second on 8-12 @ 1082 and a third @ 1060 on 8-24 but I didn't report it, because a long term cycle.
Still 1060+1082 =2124/2=1071spx
1122+1082=2204/2=1102-1070 =32 point capture.

Trend still down til it isn't . Thursday Friday

I still look for a low Friday based on patterns I see. I thought I could add a spreadsheet here with the count. I can't! I have been calling for Friday low since Monday we will see.


Any-who I have a 144L Friday. and a 144H Wed 9-1-10. The Low so we get the EOM window dressing rally anyone :)
Todays high looked like that time frame. I think the HOD is in by 10:30 am Thursday26th and we go down rest of day.

The alternative is the low is at 10:30am and we rally all day. Use your own indicators!

Jerry went a blog'en

Wednesday 25th rally how powerful?

Wed 25th :
I don't think the rally will be as powerful for Wednesday as I first though. I wanted a close near L.O.D. Come to find out the Yahoo live chart I was watching had the low of 1048.88 ^spx when in fact it was 1046.68 so close, was not near the L.O.D. Then the ^vix spiked higher showing a lot of fear by investors. As long as it stay's above the 50dma it's bearish.
I will stick with resistance at 1085/88 ^spx but look for 1040/1010. Wait Jerry O you missed it by 6.68 points and that is not good enough? Not really a take out of 1040 opens the air pocket to down.
The market is over sold, but not sold out. Time will tell if they will write songs about me :)


I post at Khalsas pad and Time & Cycle group.

24th of August

We had no violation of the 1085/1088 area, that could be used as a stop loss, but the breakeven is 1102 if you want the path to bigger fish. I'm hoping this down trend will be in the 90 day time frame.
Pure speculation for tomorrow(Tuesday) but if we close at LOD (low of day ) or near it, it should be bought, as Wednesday could be a 1 day wonder up!
So far target is 1040-1010 SPX or SP500 and then see how oversold we are.

This is for fun and games. Contact your professional money manager and let them spend your money.
Jerry O
PS no charts tonight since no violations

Monday 23nd and maybe all week

My cycles are still bearish but need to see what happens Monday. Gann circle has the April 23 2010 on alert and pin points Monday.23nd! I think it a high. We also have the vix dn+spx dn = Monday UP. Day after OE we usually reverse.

How high? I think 1085/1088 SPX should offer resistance we break above that I will be back, else I look for a test of 1040-1010 soon. Of course I'm not over sold so it may want to finish down first but guessing Monday up or round trip.

Will add my EW wave thoughts as only Advanced Get can see then and my alternate count..

Getting real bearish for next week

Friday 20th OE Oex in p.m. Saturday settlement.
Trend Model
ST (days) down
Med T (weeks ) down
LT 30 cd up.
I have a jpg of what I think is a bearish 9TD fractal! Is it really a fractal I don't know. I do know this is the second time in 9 TD we are attaching the 50dma on the vix. Once we cross above it, if we do, hang on to your socks or that sucking sound will take them.

Next week I expect an assault on spx 1040 to 1010 .
This chart below is my gann 15 degree model normally 30 is used but I have had some great moves on 15 tomorrow a big move should happen.
I see a gap down am with rally into close +/-20m.
That rally should be sold. disclaimer- fun and games.

19th down ?

Looking for either a 9:40 pop high or a 10:30 high, lower rest of day. S3L preferred
We also has up vix+up spx + down day 80% of the time.

waiting 2 Aug 18th

The inversion window from 1-2pm did offer the H.O.D @ 1:34pm yesterday.

My model didn't offer anything due to Tuesday action.
It is still on a SELL signal. 3 models....
S2 10:30 is key time a hi look for a reversal rest of day, or a 10:30 low look for a rally.
I will use 1102 spx as a breakeven point and then stand aside till a better entry.

Jerry

Use with your own work.

Waiting for next signal

S1L ? or SU (stuckup)
We are in a inversion window 1-2pm.
I have a breakeven sell at 1102 spx if 1122+1082 was held.
We didn't get the 1066L so no credit there.
Max pain has us at 1080-1100 spx but can we go much higher.?
This is a short covering rally so to fast for my trend model .
My model will offer something after today's close.

Down till proven other wize.

The target remains 1066/or 1064. Let market tell us. I can't get all beared up because the vix
didn't close above the 50dma but close. If we are going to bottom here in a Wave (4) that would cause a great buying panic. Keep the Dax in your sites for strength or weakness.
What could make me more bearish/bullish is lower than 1056 spx or gap above 1111.
Short term-days down.
Medterm - weeks down
Lt -30td- up

CIT in the works.

If we can't close above 1082 my mechanical spreadsheet will offer a CIT to DOWN. So a close at 1082 +3 or 5 point would not be very convincing.
The V day I expected so far is not happening.

Thursday-Friday

No chance of the low today( Thursday) since Wednesday was to big a drop. Look for the low Friday and it depends on how close we get to 1075/1066 on Thursday.
One worry is we are close to crossing the 50dma on the Vix make your own assessment on this chart. Also watch the Dax to see if 6100 falls easy.(no chart)

Fed day

SPX up+vix up =down day maybe 80% of the time.
Buy/sell pivot at spx 1122 aggressive and wippy.

The Bull remains

Even thought we closed on a B/S pivot I remain bullish. First we had vix dn +spx dn = up Monday or next day usually. I like the vix bearish attitude of late. We had a low on the 5th day of month that usually means we rally into OE week. (Sample below, a good high or low in first few days usually inverts) Nor a'm I over-bought. But on the other hand a take out of 1107 and for sure 1100 Spx would change things fast. You can't sleep at the switch with this light volume. Net net the week is UP.

Put the 6th on watch. but bullish

Above chart is max pain about 1075 Spx for Aug . Do we have to go down no but it does add downside pull. I have the 6th as a 8TD and 24TD high so I need to watch that. It's amazing how the 5th TD of each month can be a major high or low leading to OE on the 20th (OEX).
The 6th is also the 5thTD like 3-6-09 if ones remember that event. (major low)
For Thursday I 1116 as a pivot B/S agressive to wiping, nothing to do with today's low. My indicator are still not overbought. 1168 anyone?