STill 1430 Support 1500 R 10-22Low

Last week I said 1430 support and we stopped at 1430.53 . The week 1430 should break and take us to 1400 real quick.I look for a low 10-22 at 1390.xx cash.
The above charts just shows the weakness we all know about, but a chart is worth 1000 words.
Jerry

Trans vs Dow update

This chart above is how Stockcharts explains the Dow Theory.  The chart below is several charts  of Tran/Indu and several bare charts to help get a view. If you wait for the Dow Theory you will leave a lot on the table.

The common wisdom is if the transports go down the market will follow. Going back to 1999 I find that a little hard to prove. I'm open to suggestion because I maybe looking at this chart wrong but there are times the trans seem to have no effect on Spx. I draw a few lines to help line up the Trans with the Spx on the bottom.


Jerry

1500 Resistance 1430 Support Spx

1500 Resistance 1430 Support Spx. Till some thing happens I guess these are the cards.

My 40 TDH hopefully came last week and we can correct. First down Friday in 8 weeks.

I'm still overbought. Can the Transports lead us down yet again, or will energy tumble.

Click chart to enlarge.

Probably a little higher.

• Chart #1 shows a fib circle with higher out prices possible.
• Chart #2 shows the strong resistance area from yr 2000 and yr 2007 also suggesting we could hit the grey area
• Chart #3 suggests 1495 or noted out come.
• Vix + Spx suggest Wednesday up as does upvolume.
• Still very overbought but that is when s**t happens.
• Oex p/c ratio tells me nothing.
• I have a 40 TD cycle on the 21st most cycles have been lows except the  4-2-12 (1422H spx) and the  5-1-12 1415H 20 tdc so we are due for a cycle high.

THE WHAT IF BAR DIDN"T HOLD FOR THE SNAP! but you get the idea .

More charts from my Stockcharts.com site.  
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=1045838,1&cmd=show[e273048185]&disp=E

Jerry

Monday down 17th

Top chart upvol down on an upday calls down Monday
2nd chart we have come down under the blue line once we go above it a correction should start..

Nice gann box showing perhaps a completion. And the Get 5th wave.
Wave 5 is longer than 3 probably not legal.

I like this cycle

I'm going with this cycle unnamed as of yet.These cycle have been working well but not calling the aptitude.
I have this low on Sept 7-10th +/_ 1 TD. The 8th 9th are weekends

This will conclude with a 110 TD low from 4-2-12 or 1422 Spx.

click image to enlarge.


We seem to test the up trend line again and again but have held close to it. A break will be trouble for the bulls. The bulls BTW are buying oil,gold,silver,in the hopes that Uncle Ben will pull the QE3 trick.
Will he help Soros make even more
or will he understand it will be hyper inflation and stag flation.
I don't think he can win this one.


Why Friday was a dufus rally. The EW boys are all happy and saying this will lead us higher. I will show a divergence on the bottom of this chart where volume is not confirming this rally so look out below. 1405.75 could start a fall.


The technical high is in and we need a technical low to get back in the game.

One worry the EOM rally.

Thursday Intraday 1414.15 is key

We take out 1404.15 on the close then 1390 will be quick. Nothing on volume yet

Technical high vs Actual

Signs of a top. This chart shows the $trans above the 200/50 dma but still far below the $spx not bullish so far.

I have the technical high on 8-7-12 and have been overbought ever since.

The price is still unfolding.

I have on the 17th a 220 TD hit,on 8-21-12 both a 330 and a 55TD . The 55TD is supposed to be a high but looking at Friday we had down volume on an up price day, that is usually followed by either flat or down.

Chart below still looking for a low to place.






















???????????????????????????????
I had a question on this statement:
looking at Friday we had down volume on an up price day, that is usually followed by either flat or down.

Answer: Look at this upv chart / by total vol we see a down spike with spx up 2.65 a divergence.

I have added my sheet so you can see on column H BEIGE/GREEN the up and down %. If you look at spx to left you will see most times on beige days we are flat to down.
Now the % number is important because
it can tell you OB and OS. It's
one my most important indicators.
Total volume means nothing only the direction of the volume.I have said this many times in many years and finally some one read what I was saying. LOL

Top is in I believe

Advanced Get has moved to a wave 5, this puts 1380.39 ( w3) on the scope as support/resistance.

My indicators are over bought, who's aren't LOL.
I had 1390 -1400 pegged so 1407 is nothing.The one day wonder wondered a little more than I though.

I have bought SPXS triple short ETF.

Lets go cowboy..
The VIX btw is in C of 5 not pictured.Rally in Vix suggested. The market is having to many glitches of late that suggests no support to hold us up since every one is in.

Jerry

One Day wonder.

If we look at last 3 years highs that were all spring highs, we see 9 and 13 as import lows after these highs.
Currently we have a 9TDL in and we need a turn down or this is going to be bullish for stocks.

I have just gone to a sell on my model
with a 109TDL on the 9th of Aug.
same day I understand but can't confirm that Eric HAdik has a high so could be very important day.

The Vix at 15.xx has been a good time to short.
Notice how we stay in this channel and time to retrench.
AGET only offers 1350 so far.

I was looking for 1390+ and we got it.
Since all the computers have now been reset, lets see where we really go.
Good trading.