Friday Oct 1st 2010

My trend model on a close basis has an aggressive sell at 1126 Spx. We could clearly have some serious damage if we close below 1131.89 putting me on a sell for Monday then.

Trend is UP till we confirm a CIT (change in trend )

I don't understand why many EW guru's have the market going sideways for 3 to 5 more days?
Guess we will find out!

update at 3:30

I have been out all day and just returning.
Based on spx at 1142.76 I get an aggressive sell at 1126.
If the market dips into close that 1126 should move up point for point.

Still looking for a major low 11-16 based on the 144TDL cycle

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Just updating from yesterday vacation mode :)
Aggressive sell for today spx 1119
For Wed based on 3:37 Today @1146.52 aggressive sell spx 1123

On hold

I can't generate another number till we flat line again. All CIT's come when the market flat lines because tops roll.
Perhaps Tuesday and Friday = a double top but need more info.
Trend is up till I can get a reading. Spx 1125 gap interesting and needs to be watched.

Close but to what?

We did hit the high Tuesday and perhaps you nibbled short there.
I'm on watch for an aggressive sell at 1112 spx for Friday. I don't think it will happen since other work suggest we are closer to a low. Let the market speak.
Since 9-17 we have followed the market up with sell numbers of course not realistic till today.
(test 1079,1084,1083,1092,1102,1112)
Since 1112 is only good for Friday,I suspect we rally some and close on a new sell number higher than 1112.
We want to see what comes first.

I'm on vacation but will try to do a last hr run of data.

J

Remember this is a trending model it will not pick exact tops or bottoms.
LOY projected to be 11-16-10 +/- 2 TD price unknown.

Hedging top Monday or Tuesday

We have reached what is looking like a C.I.T. (change in trend )area.
The model is offering yesterday spx 1079, Friday 1084, so the fact it is now offering
numbers means a small position in a bearish ETF is now fruitful.
We could based on cycles have a higher high Monday and or Tuesday ( Fed day) based on
the 55TDH from 1010 low 7-1-10 or a minor 144TDH from the last time we saw a number
under 1086.02 from 2-25-10 minor low.
From there we went straight up to 12xx.
Based on all this we should see major low 11-16-10 +\- 2 TD
What level I wish I knew.
So be on top alert next few days NIBLE short with stops.
I will post the actual aggressive sell when it hits.

Pressure model has now dropped below 50 warning of weakness.
We don't have to take out 1131.47 to have a top. The first number is a throw away the exhaustion number or second number is king.
Jerry O

Top by Monday

For Wednesday (15th) I have a 144TDL (from 2-19H) Blue day some type high @ 10:30amET

Trend model still bullish.
Pressure gave a warning to day the trend maybe changing.

Trend is UP, top watch

On Top watch.
OOps,
I made an oops when I failed to belive my trend program.
I should have offered an aggressive buy on 9-2 @ 1080.39 the best you could have go, with a gap up open. Next on 9-7 it offered a 1104 cit that hit on 9-9 had I reported it a better price was at hand.

SO TREND IS UP.
I will add a target of either 1121 squaring 1039 or a fib of 1130 all Spx
What we want is a shot to one of these numbers then a close below day before.
I will add we have UP pressure at this time since that secret number is above 50.
We also had a small move in a ratio that offers a big move. ( could be round trip)

Support 1091 both break even and real support.


Will the boyz come back and sell this???

CIT in the works.

Breaking above 1105 spx if it holds, puts the trend to up.
I don't know :( I'm in denial fighting my model :)

So many have the EOY at spx 1250 based on earnings that are as we know, from cuts not expansion .