Calling a ST LOW

My post to members today   "BTW if we plunge the close I think we get a playable pop higher tomorrow."   I did buy some calls on the close.
We either hit a ST low today or will in the am tomorrow. Either way I look up tomorrow.WEDNESDAY  9th

Looking at this chart, we should hold the 100dma for a few days.
Look at arrow in green at bottom of chart. The ratio has hit lows right before rallies .
Wenesday is also a very important TD
as followed by one of the members.

My bull data.
Tick -799   O.S.
Premium 2.67 bullish
Xsp 1.95 to bearish and that is bullish
Charts FINALLY look ugly and that is bullish. It's hard to find anything     bullish so that is bullish.
Oh and Yellon news.

Jerry

Support better hold or BOOM

 We finally broke the back of the strength in the
$rut chart  left   . This is vs the Oex.
That could be very important to the overall health of this market.
I think it shows a lot of speculation.
If that is a parabolic top they end badly.
Many think this is about the budget but I think it is QE and the failure of it .

 More signs of what could be real danger.I think this the start of a major drop if support fails.
The market is looking real tired.
I want that 5% to 10% correction to happen
so we can fresh up the charts.

Mid to late Oct is my target for that low.
We are not oversold here, not that the market can't rally but it would be better to fail now.

The red line on the Aroon moved up today a sell signal or the damn thing is running late.

Even the ADX has a divergence with lower peaks.

If we break here it won't be pretty.


Today Friday close, we rallied all day, just about the opposite of last Friday where we fell all day.

50 DMA is all we got to hold us up and that can pop fast.
Look out below!!
 

DITTO Ahead 5 to 10% correction,Mid Oct at least.

 We can again look at Advanced Get chart.
What this say's is no tecknical damage as of yet.
A takeout of  Spx 1686 is needed.
This could be quick!

 CPCE keeps getting into bearish area.
Unchanged for 1 week, no fear in the pits.

Most important chart is $NYAD looking to take down the 25dma.
You can see results of other crossing's.

*Bottom line we have no real technical damage yet!
* Wed is another reaction day, last 2 have been big to shake trend followers.
*Friday close big bearishness in Oex pit, there record has been dead wrong this year still I respect
there thoughts.
* I don't think the weakness is about the budget.
I think it is about the QE with 3/4 years we are still swimming in quicksand, with 2 balloons to help hold us up.
My 2 cents.

Rally Over for now!

 The CPCE has not been looking great for months, and we have been plunging into topping area several times of late. This is one indicator that has me worried we are surely topping here.

See my post to group below.

The week ahead Monday looks  bearish with bearish options and a  neg premiun of - 2.76.
With the weekend Monday is a fools game but
net -net week is down .

My post to group Thursday night.
-----Original Message-----
From: Jerry
Sent: Fri, Sep 20, 2013 12:28 am
Subject: [TimingShortTerm] Reaction Day Friday looking down

This reaction day is usually big.

We could clip out a new high but net net I look for a down day with xsp options at  2386c and 39 puts.
Even the Oex has finally gotten a mit bullish.
Friday is also a 144 TD possible   L-L ?
JerryO                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
******************************************************************** Here is the Advanced Get model.
We are ending a wave 5 and everything seems to be falling into
place. I said in the last few weeks I was bullish till last week now look out for last week of Sept. Friday 20th was the start.
I believe we are going to have at the very least a 5% correction or a fib 50%.
With Oct right around the corner a 10% correction should be on tap.
Good trading.

Short term bullish but look out last week of Sept.

AGET offers a bull look but not very much, and then we could get a  drop in last week of Sept just like Sept of 2012.
10% probably not, since 100dma has been holding.

This chart also has me bullish for the short term.
Dark blue slow trend has us not in up trend.
The fast green line does have us in an uptrend.
Wouldn't surprise me break above bule trend line and 50 dma only to get hit hard down.
Right now I think we move higher till Thursday Option week.

Been on vacation last few weeks, hope every one had a great summer.

That 4% Intel is paying looks great still.
Jerry
TimingShortTerm  experienced only need apply .

Look at red line for direction

 If you notice when the red SMA is curving up it's been bullish and vice versa.
Would expect higher prices aheah or buy the dips.
Friday Bloomberg and CNBC had the bears on and how many were selling out at this level.
I would think 1750 or 1800 Spx is next .


Jerry O

5th Wave or extending

Monday the 29th is a 144TD High
Moon in 3Q
5th TD of 20 TD cycle
Expect EOM rally.
Fed still pumping.
Possible 1737 Spx cash.

If housing starts to slide and oil keeps climbing it could get nasty real fast. Earning are soft finally.

K.I.S.S.

Short covering and momentum rally spike.

OK Big rally. Short covering for sure.
The rally ended over bought.
The rally was an outside day considered bearish by me.
Still stuck between  50dma and 25 dma.
Need another day to see but I don't think it has legs.
The parabolic indicator I built is looking for a low tomorrow, seems hard to believe.

More down ,cycles 18/19 th

I have some serious cycles on the 18/19th that could offer support  unless I get a parabolic buy.
HEADLINE Soros says 2014 will be a tough year.

This chart to right if we break dashed line could be nasty.











Some simple S/R lines I don't think any one can argue with.  Click to enlarge b Jerry