Bulls stampede, should we?

 Hard to find bear news so had to look deep for weird signs of extremes.
As we look at the CPCI left and the blue line, it seems to line up with to much extreme in market.
Some dates12-19-2007 days before we turned down,11-26-12 again before a dip and 12-18-22-2009 .

 Here we have that July-Aug period in 2011 where we dipped then peaked look like what is happening now. This sideway pattern can be bearish if in fact we have a double top.

 Talk about bulls this P&F just got crazy bullish but does look for a pull back to 1440.
To be honest this P&F since I have watched it in many months get to bullish at turning points, added it to list of weird charts

 I  think I'm in love with this $NYMO chart.
To me it should have ran higher with this rally but
looking more like it wants to go down. The bottom indicator  with that knee jerk look as I recall I looked back and that happens at a turning point but doesn't have to happen tomorrow or next week.

Here we have from Advanced Get  and using it's MOB ( make or break) indicator I have made several projections.

From the M pivot with arrow , well maybe you best click chart to see it enlarged to to understand..
Basiclly what I'm saying is M before dip gave on
MOB, then M before another dip gave a second MOB and the second rallied a little higher.
Still both are double tops.
Looking weekly Dow and Spx in 5ht waves,Dax daily in 5th wave

`This got a lot of shock and awe.
I have to update it because it is weekly and will not move fast. That said I would hope the market shows it true colors with one more shot higher or
gap down and follow the yak color.
If it takes longer then the low not in April 2014.

My cycle book by CLIF DROKE  say's i'am a little early on the 10 yr cycle time.

Jerry O

NYMO looks like it offers a sell.signal.

 Update vix + spx down = upday 70% of the time. I have had the 9th as a reaction day for quit awhile.
At first I thought it would be up but could be big move in both directions.

 CHART
Crossing the green line on the NYMO should offer lower prices. That price on the SPX better be 1445.31 or lower soon.
That is 1/2 the big bar move.
We waste days going down only a little starts to offer other thoughts.
I don't want a sideway's market here.
The market moved so fast that indicator have yet to catch up.

Jerry O


On my lower chart I reread the cycles book by Clif Droke and my April low maybe a little too early.
I will adjust it when I see what Gann line it wants to follow down.

ST topping LT low April 2014

   I see many are looking ahead this time of year to the future. I have come up with something different based on what I see out their.  However not than many points apart, but yet I have a date.If it's going to work it will be soon. Perhaps the public re-looks over the non money saver the Congress passed and the cliff 2 is in Feburary. This will be the ciff 1,2 ,3 ,4 year. 

I ' am bearish looking for a top any day now. I have the 9th picked but it could be in already.
My spread sheet is overbought and many charts look  close to cross-overs.
Buy bearish ETF's is a thought but not an endorsement.












On this chart I clone Gann boxes from the yr 2000 high.
I offer a date based on these boxes.
The boxes are in an area of a high currently
Do we have to touch red upper trend line no we don't.

Click chart to expand.

Jerry O

Topping

 We are topping here. My spreadsheet has finally offer 3 sell signals. Does that mean we drop tomorrow? No, we could, but this is a great area to buy bearish ETf'  and build on it.

Looking at this chart ( click to blow up) of the CPce we are in topping area red line.



 

 The dollar looks to have bottomed. Rising $$ usually means lower stocks.

 As we look at the $ RHSPX
you will notice that we bearly made it to the bull line with this strong market rally.
To me this is a major divergence

And every thing I said yesterday I looked for an afternoon high that we got but I thought it would end firm but the beige book screwed that scenario.

IN GENERAL HIGH VOLUME IS BEARISH TO ME.


Jerry O.

Thursday High and reversal

 Several things make me look for a high Thursday.
Things happen in 3's  and Thursday  yellow 3 day.
I would look for an afternoon high.

Chart shows $CPCE looking for that OB high.

This chart of the volume in green spike happened the day before so Wednesday big rally was not supported, and the fact that volume was down
offen has the next day flat to down.


Extremes are bearish and the vix is close to a  BB low.

Traders Puke.

Bloomberg reports that once support failed that traders had to puke their accounts into a dead market. Is this tax selling or panic.
I don't know but my chart on the right tells a story of overbought and over
sold.
Sorry it's not clearer but forced to use dial up.
So on 12-18 the day of the high at 697.11 we then have gone almost straight down to my CIT line. The next 2 days was big drops. Here we are again
under the cit line will Monday offer a big drop?

BTW my spread sheet has a lower low in sight.
See what Monday offers.
Jerry

Look for the high of 2013 in the 2nd week of January.  6th to 9th !

EOM -EOY rally

 Looking for EOY and EOM rally.
Thursday turn should have legs.

Charts if you look at uvol and my cit line and note we have had 2 days of strong reaction.
We came to rest above it.

This is a tale of two indicators.
The Spx showing signs of weakness nad the OEx holding the fort.The fort will win.

I have a 144TDH on the Dec 31st and next hit on the 9th of Jan 2013.I think the HOY is in that second week of Jan 2013.

Happy New Year.
Jerry O

Calls for more down,maybe

                                                                                 Just how much the day changed.

This snap was taken at 11am and looked like a crash day.
As you can see by the close the vix had improved
second chart.

We also had buying start to appear after lunch. With all the news on Cliff if we didn't crash there then I find it hard to see Monday down.

If we look at the $CPCE it suggested a bottom was coming so was that it?

I just don't have enough data on my spread sheet to suggest we were overbought enough yet.
As we rallied I kept getting only one indicator in sell mode out of 3 so I need to be suspect that many will not see this as a buying opportunity.

Stay tuned.


Jerry

P/C 2.45 Big move possible

All I know is it's triple witch. We have a high P/c ratio could help us move again.
Move where I don't know. Today a reaction day for me, and tomorrow I have the 20TD of the 40TDC but that could have been today. Closing on the lows of the day and a inside day  seems bullish.
I'm over bought on 1 indicator again. Had we rallied today I probably would have been very bearish.
Looking back at the last 4 Triple witchs I see rallies. This week of course we started strong so does that mean we finish stronger? Triple witch who knows but we are due for as triple witch plunge. Can't remember last one.
Max pain  $oex.x last I seem was 635.
Good luck,
Jerry O

Monday reversal- P/C 2.49

Pat my back time. If you took the 9:40-9:45 time  and did opposite you had a winner. Blush I over slept.

Monday I look for a reversal to the up side with a possible 10:30 Low. I think 1404-1405 Spx
Reason one, my parabolic indicator is flashing a low.
The P/c ratio 2.49 offers a big move. but real direction unknown since above 3.00 is better for direction.


 
 The Vix as shown in this chart is in the down area with the crossing of MA so a pullback is in order.
The vix is also touching upper band.
One of charts below shows it. Last chart.






                                                                                                                                                                                  Blue circles just point out bottoms and green point out tops but their is a time factor so we have a little room to rally












 

 Fear and greed look neutral.
My sheet was overbought several days ago so this backoff could offer a higher prices for a few days and this   is OE week.

 These charts below have me worry longer term.
If you look at what I will call a frackass because it's not a real fractal but has some haunting indicators. If we don't turn around we could get in a plunge real fast.
Most think we will rally after the WH comes to a deal and we probably will have a knee jerk.
But when you wake up you will say what is good about me paying more taxes. For starters a $65 Obama care fee will be coming soon. Not a tax Oh O.K.

 Here we have a P&F chart with a flag at 1390
and a target of 1250.
This will happen sooner than later.

 Here is the McCellan. I don't try to put spark plugs into the McC and tune it up.

All I do is look at it as a chart with my indicators on it.
Based on that it is on a sell even with  histogram
combo MACD.
Even the cross overs are not good. How fast can this change I don't know but I have it on the watch list.