Thursday High and reversal

 Several things make me look for a high Thursday.
Things happen in 3's  and Thursday  yellow 3 day.
I would look for an afternoon high.

Chart shows $CPCE looking for that OB high.

This chart of the volume in green spike happened the day before so Wednesday big rally was not supported, and the fact that volume was down
offen has the next day flat to down.


Extremes are bearish and the vix is close to a  BB low.

Traders Puke.

Bloomberg reports that once support failed that traders had to puke their accounts into a dead market. Is this tax selling or panic.
I don't know but my chart on the right tells a story of overbought and over
sold.
Sorry it's not clearer but forced to use dial up.
So on 12-18 the day of the high at 697.11 we then have gone almost straight down to my CIT line. The next 2 days was big drops. Here we are again
under the cit line will Monday offer a big drop?

BTW my spread sheet has a lower low in sight.
See what Monday offers.
Jerry

Look for the high of 2013 in the 2nd week of January.  6th to 9th !

EOM -EOY rally

 Looking for EOY and EOM rally.
Thursday turn should have legs.

Charts if you look at uvol and my cit line and note we have had 2 days of strong reaction.
We came to rest above it.

This is a tale of two indicators.
The Spx showing signs of weakness nad the OEx holding the fort.The fort will win.

I have a 144TDH on the Dec 31st and next hit on the 9th of Jan 2013.I think the HOY is in that second week of Jan 2013.

Happy New Year.
Jerry O

Calls for more down,maybe

                                                                                 Just how much the day changed.

This snap was taken at 11am and looked like a crash day.
As you can see by the close the vix had improved
second chart.

We also had buying start to appear after lunch. With all the news on Cliff if we didn't crash there then I find it hard to see Monday down.

If we look at the $CPCE it suggested a bottom was coming so was that it?

I just don't have enough data on my spread sheet to suggest we were overbought enough yet.
As we rallied I kept getting only one indicator in sell mode out of 3 so I need to be suspect that many will not see this as a buying opportunity.

Stay tuned.


Jerry

P/C 2.45 Big move possible

All I know is it's triple witch. We have a high P/c ratio could help us move again.
Move where I don't know. Today a reaction day for me, and tomorrow I have the 20TD of the 40TDC but that could have been today. Closing on the lows of the day and a inside day  seems bullish.
I'm over bought on 1 indicator again. Had we rallied today I probably would have been very bearish.
Looking back at the last 4 Triple witchs I see rallies. This week of course we started strong so does that mean we finish stronger? Triple witch who knows but we are due for as triple witch plunge. Can't remember last one.
Max pain  $oex.x last I seem was 635.
Good luck,
Jerry O

Monday reversal- P/C 2.49

Pat my back time. If you took the 9:40-9:45 time  and did opposite you had a winner. Blush I over slept.

Monday I look for a reversal to the up side with a possible 10:30 Low. I think 1404-1405 Spx
Reason one, my parabolic indicator is flashing a low.
The P/c ratio 2.49 offers a big move. but real direction unknown since above 3.00 is better for direction.


 
 The Vix as shown in this chart is in the down area with the crossing of MA so a pullback is in order.
The vix is also touching upper band.
One of charts below shows it. Last chart.






                                                                                                                                                                                  Blue circles just point out bottoms and green point out tops but their is a time factor so we have a little room to rally












 

 Fear and greed look neutral.
My sheet was overbought several days ago so this backoff could offer a higher prices for a few days and this   is OE week.

 These charts below have me worry longer term.
If you look at what I will call a frackass because it's not a real fractal but has some haunting indicators. If we don't turn around we could get in a plunge real fast.
Most think we will rally after the WH comes to a deal and we probably will have a knee jerk.
But when you wake up you will say what is good about me paying more taxes. For starters a $65 Obama care fee will be coming soon. Not a tax Oh O.K.

 Here we have a P&F chart with a flag at 1390
and a target of 1250.
This will happen sooner than later.

 Here is the McCellan. I don't try to put spark plugs into the McC and tune it up.

All I do is look at it as a chart with my indicators on it.
Based on that it is on a sell even with  histogram
combo MACD.
Even the cross overs are not good. How fast can this change I don't know but I have it on the watch list.

McClellan looks Ominious

I have no call for Friday. I didn't like the action today ( 3:30) that call to the WH stopped what could have been a good oversold buy.
Will ponder this chart.
Many crossovers that make the market look  weak.

I may try a scalp.

My thoughts do the opposite of 9:40-9:45 since this is S3 yellow.

K.I.S.S.

 Update  Thursday:

Had a $3 profit at 3:30 and was trying to sell zoom zoom up ( that damn white house).
Made only  $1.2 per but love to win.

I looked for a rally today as I said yesterday.
I had hoped to get overbought but only one of my 3 indicators turned positive.
We have been up 5 days in a row and surely can be 6.
I seen no volume or any change in anything to confirem todays rally but the rally is not over.
I did buy a few Oex puts on a gut feeling based more on this chart.
We have hit this brick wall area 5 times. We have the same candle as circled.
My thought is we could pull back for 1   1/2 days at this time.
Don't marry options sell if a profit.
The Fed has nothing to offer but does the White House.
Today I had a cycle hit H to H I hope.

Jerry O

Bullish Charts with P/c Oex 3.74

 Starting off with the Oex p/c ratio @ 3.74 not always but usually offers a big move I suspect up.

Chart to left is in bull town what comes next sooner or later bear town.You can stay overbought
longer than your money will last.

 This is a problem that the RR's are coming back. A cross of that red line could spook a rally.

 Spx with buy signals weeks ago and holding.

The strongest group is Cyclical or one of them and that is bullish as a basic group.

Not very bearish here

All my friends are bearish. Sure this AGET shows
a W4  abc, sure the AGET bias went to a sell.
We see a series of pitchforks. We see  what I think will hold 1400 SPX or 1393 worst case.
Sure we have a lot of crossovers on MA's. ready to kill this market.

But my spreadsheet doesn't agree.
The Vix is hitting 17.XX right where the last low appeared.
We have a 55TDL Wednesday but the oversold condition we had should have us hit the current high again for a double top at least.
Still in cash not ready for puts yet. Not investment advise.
Jerry