Wednesday down

 Quick review at 1am ET.
Future are up sharply but I still think we are down Wednesday.We do have the vix +spx saying UP
not shown.

#1-My bear view is this chart shows the volume in bearish mode under blue lines

 #2 We had a outside day today, enlarge chart to view the record. No perfect but close. Most technical analyses says inside and outside days are useless or undecided, I think different.

Here is the AGET view of the count. Other then the pitch fork trail not much as far as direction.

My parabolic indicator also looks for a down or at least a lower low. for Wednesday.

As far as being OB/OS I'm close to being OS but not there yet in the SPX, nor the Nas. We need a thud down.

Option week, but trend still down

Quotes of mine Friday in my Group
"I don't think we rally much here with out looking 1390 sticks out in my mind as a target and we are there."

And we hit 1391 like a brick wall with a fairly weak close.
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"I go with 1266  :-* then 1166  or 20% 1266 Spx sure, 1166 iffy
The short term rally should be as Rxxxx indicates 1400 expiry. I have 1402-1410 and a rare out side chance we could see 1419 (a very strong sell.)
The Spx seems to be front running today more balance Monday.
 Hadik 14-16 high
I have a 144TDL 26/27th
So far upvol peaked at 1PM  or 74%"

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 Saturday Current thoughts market could pull back Monday offering a buy and push higher into Thursday

possible Friday. The more we drop Monday (if we do) the less upside. Drops will be fast in a bear market. I gave my targets above.

Here we have the Treasury Bond and $$$
playing togetherness.
click and chart to enlarge.
As I said last week 9 chart below away's the
Dollar has bottomed .

How can this be good?

The RailRoad Index topped, then gapped down ,
later the gap was filled and weakness is the norm.

 New York Advance rolling rolling
long standing  target 1266 as marked.

 My view of John Murphy 13/34 ema
We are in the yellow so look left for the future.
Macd and PPO confirming

The P&F I built had a target 1350 now lowered
 to 1290. Kind of say's 1350 is real possible.
Why not on the 1290 bandwagon here?
Seems a little too soom.
The P&F has a 25 point miss so far as I can tell
with my experience .

What is this? This is my buy- sell model on the NDX.
It is not on a buy yet.
Do not risk money on this unless it agree's with your own work. Fun and games only.

So in the land of majic how would this work.
First you need to get oversold (18) taking a position long (calls) then on a rally if after 6 Trading days it not above 50 sell cash.
If after 6 trading days it's heading for 70 then consider selling on a down turn 73 for sure.
Will this get the top no remember this is option model sell premium.
The mood  of market seems to come back to 30
in green a fast move and calls again with same 6 TD scenario. As we all know the market can stay over bought for a long period of time so no (puts) are suggested unless 73 - 70 is breached.

Trend still dn but OS

Today was the 30 TDL of the 10-40 tdc. Was it the final low not by a long shot.
We could of course bounce here  looking at the oversold condition of the market. The horizontal lines tell the worst depths.
Jerry O

$ has bottomed

$USD has bottomed.
Reading Eric Hadik free news letter, he say's it all about the $.

Looking at my chart the trend indicator I use has crossed to a buy.

The blue down trend line maybe gave a better buy.
I would guess a strong $ rally will push stocks down and killing already weak earnings.

Jerry O

Looks Weak

* Click images to enlarge *

Trend finders look weak.
Spx runs into 50dma resistance.

The EOM rally I looked for a 1 day event, shows
weakness. Monday will tell us if it was a major reversal, but volume doesn't support that out look yet..

NY advance dropping soon offers a target at the bottom.

 John Murphy indicator is on a sell.
Yellow is showing could lead to fast drop.

Spx x 50% A break of the red lines we gut the bull hogs.



Any drastic indicators were very quiet Friday market.
PC ration was neutral, Vix etc. nothing popped at me.

Indicator maybe a good trend finder!

EOM rally

 We have the John M 13/34 ema right in the sell area but not happening. When yellow look out below.







Right on the sell line!!!!! 3 sideway days not helpful ...

 P& F ready to break down but hasn't .
Looking  for 1350 but since it had 1500 ear marked I would say for many reasons 1375 is a target  IF..

The king here has a new buy bias on 10-26 and I will stick with 1425 to 1433 strong resistance.

I will guess 31st and Nov 1st as EOM rally days

Volume and Spread sheets tell me we are in limbo,
so news like  Sammy not that bad could spark
a rally.
Earning are under pressure so expect a short lived
rally.

Jerryo1314@aol.com

Targets

Today was a 144TDL  with a 144TDH on Nov 1st.
We could kiss 1400 tomorrow or lower but I think next week will be up since it is EOM window dress.
Will Wall Street be open? We get that rain with Wall Street lower than sea level it's in trouble.

Jerry

Targets on the upside is 1425 and strong resistance 1433.81.

With the PC at .99 and a trin of 2.74 a rally attempt is ahead.

We had upvol of 12% so over sold.

Soon the down side target will be 1376.34    or    1370

We have a 144TD hit Thursday.

 Looking at the VIX breaking above the 54 ma shows a lot of weakness ahead, doesn't have to be tomorrow.

 200 DMA  picks the hot spot with fibs support.

Using weeks here is a possible area for the 2012 low  but on a 90 TD basis I would look for Dec 14 ish.

Day 20 of 40 TD cycle Monday

Monday is the 20 TD cycle but the low for a few days probably was Friday.
If we look at the volume bar circled it has the bottom look.
I think we will attack 1438 then strong resistance at 1445-1448 with a fictional double top at 1451/52.
Support is 1425 then 1410.

Best Jerry

way off-count change

I keep saying all year the market was not over sold enough to have this big a reaction. Sure would like to know the algorithm the street computers use!

Here is a change in AGET with the count chaning to wave 4 from wave 5.
Also AGET (mob) had a target of Spx 1425 I felt we would blow through that to 1410 ya right.
The bias has given another buy.