Will it happen?

These Gann fans always look nice, but I have seen many fail.
Just a scenario!

How mixed?

WE have pressure on market till April 27th with Appl re-balance. We have earning next 2 weeks of course they will be weaker as restructuring is getting lame. French elections!
Bernanke Tues and Wed I believe.

Bottom line, I look for Monday down
based on open and low indicator.
Last 3 events out of 4 had weakness.

Green week. Monday 1380 to 1370, if 1370 breaks we go to 1350 ish fast.

Jerry

AGET has upward Bias

First let me say it's hard not to find a bearish chart but I made a few that will make you stop and think.

This weeks charts start with SPX and that tend line holding.






This chart shows the VIX and that red line taking it's time. Jaywiz his link on left has said many time EW'ers rush and that came to mind. This may take longer than I think!







Here is the meat. The Advanced Get program has offered a green up bias.
Will it be short or long?

I have a 144 TDL in May is all I can offer. We need to watch how strong Mondays rally well be.

I say rally because of the bias (green)
and also the OEX P/c ratio.

We had a 2.19 OEX p/c on a down Friday, looking back a ratio that high on a down Friday has lead to an up Monday. R1 is 1381.96 offical, my leader is 1378.45.
Actually if you miss the Monday rally Wednesday could be lower intraday for a better entry.
This is by no means investment advise, just some thing I personally will watch. If we have good gap down Monday That could be the buy. As always use with your own works.

Jerry

Continued 250 down

MORE WEAKNESS AHEAD




Currently this is the $TRAN
showing weakness.

















This is the $TRAN in 2007 to 2009
showing leadership

















Talk about a tech wreck.
This is SNDK now 4-13-2012 showing great weakness.

















SNDK in 2007 -2009 showing
leadership both down and up.

Quick -250 downside ahead.

Click Image to enlarge.
Here we have the ^Vix.You will notice
where I have the yellow lines 1356-1101 and the position of the VIX now.The has me on the edge because things could happen fast to the spx downside.
I know people who use the Bollinger bands will say but the vix is at the top of the band but nothing says it can't punch higher into the band extending the trend.
So #1 this makes me bearish.

Here we have the DAX and it has the same count as the SPX talk about a world economy staying in foot step.


Here we have the SPX CIT as called by Advanced Get and a mere 8 to 17 points from what could be a ST top.

I have offered where we could and should go if the 250 point drop is the guide. 1356-1101=-255

1422- 255 =1167.
The wave 4 pull back is offered at 1369.
If this is a wave 3 failure or C wave failure then all hell will break loose.
Is this a one event I don' t think so. A pullback Monday may offer a ST buy with no legs.
Jerry

CIT confirming

Looking good since the second part the down trend lines have appeared.
I will look for Spx target in the area of 1363 to 1331 all wave 4 targets.

Technical Study #1 vs Price high.
Looking at the W1 high not shown on 11/30/2011 we had technical's of 98% upvol, tick of 1004, and a trin of .28.
The price high came 4/5 days later on 12-6/7

The current wave 3 price high came on 3-19-12 just 4 days later than the technical high with 91% upvol, 981 tick and .43 trend.

Change in Trend

Right back at ya!

We came right back after a dip.
So far a weaker return.
Let the investors think about it this weekend, and I hope they will agree
with me, it may not get any better than this.
We are playing king of the hill and the king is losing.

Sell signals hanging by a thread!

Jerry O

Blue vs Blue days

Blue days suck.
This is an updated chart and you can look at the older ones below. If we go under the green and red lines we can drop 40 to 90 points fast.

This started on a blue day and I will stick with the theme looking for a blue day bottom.

For the 8th however we will be looking for a rebound to SHORT!

This will be a hard short because I think the 8th will be firmer that people think. I look for AM high 11:15
approx. and that could be higher than 1359 (spx) with the afternoon firm.
I will post my AGET chart next.

Here I show a wave 3, hoping for wave 4 at 1300 spx creating a death to bull double bottom.
What I mean is that line could offer much less upside to next rally.

The Blue lines show where symmetry can be right on at times with blue days. The high on the 29th was a blue day and I will work from there.I have listed other blue days below. Looking for an AM spike low in the future at 9:55 AM

Jerry O

click chart to expand- color days link on this site ( right)

A Hard look, maybe = caution

First let me say I'm not bearish as of yet.
Second I do have a 144TDH coming in days.
Seems everyone is looking for March as a high?

I show a right translation chart that I hope will be the out come of any pullback.


On this EW chart I have my cycles looking for a high and I put the yellow ball hoping the high will come after the trade days hits.( right translation)
Currently we are over bought. That Happened on 2-29-12 at 9:55am a blue day. The next blue days are
3-8, 3-12, 3-16, and would think we get an over sold reading at 9:55 on one or all those days. Note the 16th is OE.
From that OS I would look for a OB pullback in May as marked.


Currently I have several popular moving averages not telling much.
13/34 John Murphy. The 18 is a favorite of Art Cashin.
The other 2 are mine for ST looks only.

BTW my lower chart on Wed bounced off the line then Fri right back to it
$spxA50R so a lot of tight hints here.


This lower chart I did a model off the


2007 rally and these points in this 2012 ARE VERY IMPORTANT.

Bottom line: I'm bullish thinking the pullback will more a rotation correction.

Friday was an inside day I consider that bullish but only looking for a little higher here.


Jerry O

Some other helpers:

http://spiraldates.com/?category_name=predictions

http://blog.stocktradersalmanac.com/post/Beware-the-Slides-of-March?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+stocktradersalmanac

The color day site in posted on my favorites to the sharp right

log.stocktradersalmanac.com/post/Beware-the-Slides-of-March?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+stocktradersalmanac