Trend Still down unless

1206/1207 stop go flat. Spx The second sell is at 1199.xx but so close to the buy/sell line we just ride with the 1206 position in an ETF.
This is a Blue week as the chart will show. You will notice many are noisy sideways affair's.

Click image to enlarge.

New people this is a trending model and it will not pick tops or bottoms but the right trend can run 3 to 6 months. I can't pick prices well,so just get on the train and ride .
Jerry

Trend Still down unless

Hi Everyone,
Perhaps I'm a bear at heart and that is why I built this trend model. What have we got that is bearish... I didn't like the fact we closed within .24 of the Spx high Friday. IF you take the high 1227.08 -low 1173.00 =54.08/2 =2704 1227.08 - 2704 is 1200.4 right at my Bull/Bear line.
The Isee seems bullish, letter writters are bullish,( all = bearish) my Parabolic (sar) is bearish, pressure, all telling me this 1173 wasn't a bottom.

Bullish thoughts well Thankgiving week has a bull history, and even with things over bought it can go higher. If Monday wants to gap should be telling.
Short weeks are pressure weeks so expect some big moves with no volume to support them.
Or the gamers week :)

I know Jaywiz at www.jaywiz.blogsot.com looks for weakness into the 29th This is on my favorite bloggers list lower right.
Steve however who have a special price looks higher with 1231 on target for Thanksgiving weekend at http://pugsma.wordpress.com
email pu_gridiron@yahoo.com
Tell him I sent you. trendsby3 jerry
Happy thanks giving to the ones that embrace it.

How important is 1200 to my trend model?

See for yourself. Trend still is down big rally of a junk IPO stock like GM or not today.

click image to expand.

So SPX 1200 is hold or fold line , 2nd position and 1206 is the first -stop sell.
Now this is all on a closing basis.

Keep thinking profit takers will show up before the close.

Several trend followers I follow all wondering??

Astro Event Thursday?

Many of my astro friends are bullish here today...11-18-2010

When has there been this many proclaimed bulls??
I'm starting to get bearish. The AAII,odd-lots,Issee all bulls.

OK my call Thursday is gap and crap as GM sucks up so much money it creates an
air pocket.
This is dangerous times as the herd runs wild..

Fwiw and sure nothing

Anyhow, a stop at 1200 spx to change the trend back to up. I don't expect it with all services fully bullish.

Trend down unless

For Wednesday:

We pulled into the drive in theater and the movie "how low can we go" was playing. Suddenly the lights went out and a sign said "to be continued"

My take on this drama is we need a lower open to rally, or stand aside .
Why ? I looked for 1% upvol we got 7%. That is equal to 8-30-10 action.

I will not dwell on this. We either open with down gap 8 to 16 SPX points or the low could be near the close and Thursday is low AM or something else is happening.

Looking at Futures at the moment looks higher open.
See you all in the am. I need some sleep.
Jerry

2nd Sell 1199.21 SpX

First sell at 1206, second today on yesterday close at 1199.21.
Lets face it today with the gap up and hold till the last 15M it was hard to take or get a position so I remain with only 1206. The 1206-7 sell area held today because when we got their the market was extremely over bought. I held. Wednesday I hope we head for 1181 or 1189 at least.

One small problem with a 85% record, is vix dn +spx dn = up
Next we had isee @ as a bullish group reporting 161 only 25 points from the April high should = Bearish.
Remember I have a 144TDL, and a 8tdL on the 17th from the April high and Nov high.

Side Note
Cold weather Mouse problems and other issues. Check my link to BORAX and it's many uses.

On a Sell

Simple speak.
I recieved a Sell at 1218 Wednesday close, next day open was gap down using the worst price that day ( not the best price ) we are in at 1206.Using the worst price so you can see there is still much gravy. Friday close another sell so we don't know what Monday will bring for a price. If rally Cover at 1206 go flat. zero loss.However it is based on the close so OMG you may have to gamble.

Target 1118.50 where strong support appears.

Go to the Blog, for charts, of parabolic model, spread sheet, and the trend model and the BUY-SELL record.

http://trendsby3.blogspot.com/ CHARTS BELOW.

Buy Sell record of Trend Model

On 8-9-10 Aggressive sell was issued at 1122 Spx

On 8-12-10 Cit confirmed sell at 1082

On 8-30-10 a cover all was issued at 1171

So 1122-1171 = 51 points

1082-1171= 11 points

Total 62 point + capture.

Depending on what 2 ETF’s you bought a $1500+ win.

On 9-2-10 buy at 1080.39 the open. Hard to do so make it 1085

9-7-10 Cit buy 1105 easy to get many chances.

I didn’t log it clear at the Blog I will admit.

Thus 1206 – 1085 = 121 points

1206-- 1105= 101 points

Total 222 points capture

Of late Upgrade model to catch faster markets.

Speculative, aggressive and Cit models.

On 11-11-10 cover and sell 1206 speculative

Now 11-12 aggressive sell at close or cover stand aside at 1206

resistance one. is at 1208.45 so ball park

Facts: The trend model can NOT pick tops or bottoms.

Does not work in fast markets. Like the period of 5-25-10 to 7-1-10 low.

From the 1010 low I never started to get a buy till the 1060-1070 level.Stilll (1122-1070 = 52 spx points

That was unacceptable. Thus the upgrade to a faster and more risky model.

I have been working with this for 2 years and feel it is close to a winner.

I have been manipulating a true time and price model the Parabolic (SAR =stop and reverse) by Welles Wilder to help me out.

Enjoy my signals while they are free. LOL.

At this point it is only used with your own work.

Jerry O

Very Speculative Sell

Update Thursday Close- Added another star to parabolic. Trend model saying 1179 a stable sell.
S2 @ 1200 and my 1198 chart. I have to repeat my model can't pick tops or bottoms.
*Wednesday***************************************************************************
Since we had a gap down lets not pad (1218), in @ 1206 on the speculative signal.





click on image to expand.

Trend Still UP unless

To far from a pivot point to change the trend. Pull backs are welcome .