Weekly H&S

3 weeks ago I posted this Weekly H&S chart with a target of 1197.80 SPX and of course our close today was 1197.96. We can say we are in close range to a top if we keep churning and stay under or near 1206.18.
Advanced Get offers a Wave 4 weekly with a possible A B C. to tie every thing together.



The next chart is a Wilgo (Larry Williams) look to some extent.
Vustx:Fagix overlay-ed on the Spx. This also suggest we are close to a top.


Click image to expand

Trend Still UP unless

We need a close under 1177.80 Spx to turn trend down.
Jerry

Trend Still UP unless

We need to break 1174.24 Monday SPX probably not going to happen.
Will add some simple 8TD cycles but direction form them unknown.
Click images to enlarge.

Getting Tight on watch

Friday EOM rally?
Support 1 is 1177.41 and that should hold, Support 2 is 1171.04 and I have an aggressive sell at
1171.65, if that falls 1155 comes fast with that being major support.

Scenario: Friday is a blue day. The last blue day was 10-25 the day we hit 1196.16 @10:am.
Now turn that chart upside down and the low is at 10:00am possible 10:30 am to give an S2L look.
Let see if it happens as we firm rest of day


However breaking 1171.65 things get serious fast use standard TA as a help.
Jerry

The Good and Bad intra week

In Sept we had 6 days that had 85% up vol days and zero dn lower than 10%
In Oct we have so far 1 day with 85% up vol day and 1 day with 10% dn vol.
A sign of weakness for sure.
The bullish news here is the Isee is bearish = bullish
The Vix above 20 is bullish since it was above 20 most of Sept.
I have a 109/and a 110 TDH hitting 28th and 29th connect it to EOM window dressing looks up to me. Thursday I think 1174.82 will hold, but I have an aggressive sell at 1170.09, not really expected. Of course we need to watch because the model uses just the facts man.

On watch

On watch for a sell signal.
1172.74 on a close basis would do it.
Problem: we are 12.88 Spx away, other sells have been in the 5 point range.
That is why I call this on watch, not an alert.

This is the first trend signal I have had since 10-4 but next day opened much higher and was cancelled.
The 26th has many clusters of cycles. seen below.
Jerry

Pending market action 25th -29th

So far trend still up. I have a sell at 1166 SPX.
The 25th and 26th Cycles I thought were going to be lows could be CIT highs.( combo of 89,55,18 TDL clusters. Still look for the H&S 10 yr pattern to happen baring a take out much higher than 1207. chart below.
Trend Model
Long Term ---up
Med Term ---up
Short Term---up
****************
pressure-- up topping
****************
Mechanial model --Dn
Other than early I don't know but it is stuck.
********************
Isee model weak.

Tuesday report for Wed.

Tuesday plunge, was Monday the high. I don't know.
I do know For Wednesday we have support 1 at 1157.73 and i think that will hold if we even get that low.
I also have an aggressive sell at 1157 to confirm a trend change.

Not thinking this is it yet. But 1157 knows all. SPX
Jerry

Pending Market Action

Not much has changed in one week as we get more over bought.
I still look for high ahead of us. The 25th-26th low I looking for could be highs .(inverted)
My official sell is at 1142 SPX trend model, but will offer 1155 SPX for the next few days.
Banks look to break down, and earnings should be in general high gear this week, after that I don't know what the bulls would want.

2 charts weekly showing the yr.2000 -10 year pattern and a current possible H&S pattern with the Advanced Get wave 4
Upside possible target 1197 to 1206 but 1155 would offer panic down. Nothing bullish about QE2, me thinks.
Wave 4 click image to enlarge

Pending market action

Sunday Oct 10-2010

Trend Model
Long term ----up
Med term------up
Short term----up
***************
Pressure -- up--topping
***************
Mechanial model --Dn
**************
*Isee model--- up-topping
Review
Friday was so flat as far as tick and trin compared to pressure
that I'm not sure what it means. No history to review.

TD hits 55 TD L 13th from 7-27H, 55TD H from 7-30 L
Oct 26th 89 and 55TDL
Oct 25thL sub divide 144/ =TDL see chart way below.


*The Isee
In 2007 to 2009 confirmed tops where at 500+ and bottoms -290
In 2010 some thing changed and that number will remain with me, since
I have done a lot of back testing.