Why I worry!

On this chart I have the $spx vs Neog.
Neogen is a niche company in the food safety and animal safety business.
This great divergence from the trend maybe very telling of world business.
If you read their report it has gotten real bad world wide.
The world food supplies are a must to protect so what is happening out there?

click image to emlarge

Still in sell mode.

Right on the cusip after a 2 day attempted rally, but looking like distribution to me.

Manipulation gone wild! Update Sell

This indicator has gone to a sell. If one looks where the sideways arrow are we see the average decline of a minimum of 25+ Spx points if everything is relative. And it will not be a 1 day affair.
Jerry O




















The market we have is not the market I want. I fight the fed who wants to kill the $$$. Dollar down
US market up.
I fight the Euro since they also want the market up they refuse to pump the banks. So Euro up US markets up.
Can the egg crack sure but after being bearish for 2 weeks guess we will have to get extremely over bought.
Monday the 12 th is settlement of futures so that could be interesting but only for the moment.
This is the third time we have taken a shot at the 200dma on the Spx.

I will sit back and watch.
Jerry O

Last week to bearish, same this week LOL. Thursday update

Thursday Close: We went on a 1 day Vix sell on Wednesday. Click chart to blow up size.









Topping signs are starting to show.














Some one asked me to look at the Gann line and we have perfect cross at Spx 1253 with a target on the MOB of 1133 on 12-15-11









Do to fast markets we drove back above the bull line on 11-28/29






VIX BELOW










The VIX: Going with Wealth Builder site the 200dma is a buy/sell line. Notice we were under the 54EMA ( Jerry O) as the rally to 121292.66 took place even under the 200dma for 2 days. I show this because here we are again so watch direction of the Vix next few day. AGET has a target of minium 55 on the Vix but that could take awhile, or not. Also a poster say's we had a bullish red hollow candle on the Vix Friday, so more reason to watch it..

On this spread sheet I did a simple formula to look at what happens when the market closes lower than the gap open. Not to put money on but to watch. If we have 2 days where the sell comes it tends to be bearish. Some Excel wiz could come up with a winner I bet. Green column is the signal


















Click charts to enlarge.
Spx in black line and Vix in candle

Target Spx 1020+/- 20

Day 5 of bear market.
This chart is not my buy/sell setting look at other posts. If this is 2008 action, then the drops will pick up speed.
On this chart I have days labeled as a reference could be 1T day off.
In May 1345 to Jun 1258 or (7%- 87-points)
June 1347 to Aug 1101 (18%-246 points)final was (21% -273 points to 1074) ....
Now Oct 1292 to Nov so far (10%-1158) but expect it to go to (21%- 1020) BTW 21% was very common in 2008.
Happy Holiday's

This 1020 by year end.

We are 1 day into a bear market !

On this chart from 2009 -2011 you can see the action of the buy and sell area's 80 overbought take a minimum short, over 90 a strong short.

To go long I use 15 to take a small long but 8 or under you need to load the boat.
We are today 11-21-11 -- 1 day into bear market. An area that could whip.

StockCharts version is
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p16006213521&listNum=3&a=206277545
***********************************************************************************
Next we have 2007 to 2009.
I have the ATH market in Oct 2007 marked in Green. You will notice it was hard to find a move above 80.I have no idea why 2011 had 90's.

I have marked divergence also.




NEXT 2001 - 2003


********************************************************************************

This is as far back as I could go.
Coming out of the bear give more idea's of where we should go if this bear is in the works finally.


Http://trendsby3.blogspot.com/

Monday UP !

Bullish Monday, why.
Screw the Committee in DC. To many think it bearish.
Vix + SPX down = up day.
Inside day = Up.
Spy up +.17 after hrs.
Index PcR .88 = extreme seen near highs in a few days from now. Leading indicator.
Seasonally bullish. Will watch 1217 then 1220 for strength. Spx.

What if it's a bear trap.
We will look at this chart.

L 1249,Buy on 3-23@ 1297 High 1339 + 42 pts
June 1st sell 1314 Buy June 30 1320 -6 pts sell high July 7th 1356 + 36 pts
Sell-July 27th 1304 low 10-4 1074 etc.
Using the buy/sell on this chart from Stockcharts.com is useless but if you tweak it there are big opportunity's.
This chart clearly shows we are topping at 1292 and perhaps ready for a big slide. Cross the green line is a clue but Friday we had a little hint of a turn. Nothing goes straight down.

Jerry O


Barcharts suggest a sell mode!
http://www.barchart.com/quotes/futures/$SPX

The big picture, my view. Orange week.

A bullish pattern so far but we need to complete a wave 4 at say Spx 1200 (centered) If W2 =W3 142 points and W4 not complete = 1200 then wave 5 = Spx 1342

From W3 to where W4 a .618 retrace should hit
Spx 1198.00/1203.33 area. Or a .618 Dow level 11500.72
needs to happen soon.


If not we could still be in a WAVE 3 UP ! Or we need to take out
W1 @1165.55 to kill this scenario.

Week ahead is orange pattern has most Mondays down.
Again I'm overbought on a Friday 4 weeks in a row.
To tell the truth there is too much smoke and mirror to make a call till we do a technical move.

Jerry O

We are running out of Gas.

As we look at this chart we notice the big drop starting backing in April 2010 and lasting several months. However you can't get there in a few days' I know there is a lot of talk of a crash but at 85%? No I think we need to get to 75% at least for a hole to open up.

For the last 3 weeks I have been seriously overbought but this week just overbought.

This is a green week with Monday a green day. Looking back it is very hard to find a down Monday on a green day.
http://www.programtrading.com/color.htm

MEBOB monthly we are in a down trend till 1292.66 breaks not expected.
CYCLES: I had a 23cH from the 1074 L on Friday.
Spx vs vix call for Monday up (70%) reliability.
AGET is lost in ABC land.
And then there is the news driving the market more than ever.

The end is near

On this chart i have drawn blue vertical lines at extremes.
May 8ht-09 in 5 td we went from 929 c to a low 878 =51 pts
9-22-09 in 3 td 1071 to 1041 = 30 pts
4-14-10 in 16 td 1210 to 1065 = 145 pts we did hit 1219 on way down.
11-19-10 we wentin 5td from 1199 to 1173= 26pts
So a pull back is near then reassess. My understanding is that back in Oct 1974 we had a rally like this that in Nov-Dec fell hard.





Update Monday night

Today i had the highest system number 14C TD from the 1074 spx low.
I had to go back to MAr 2009 just 14C TD from the 666 low.

Bottom line if we open lower you could plunge 53 spx point in 2 days before the rally resumes.
Well that was what we did in 2009





INSANELYOVERBOUGHT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
2 weeks in a row so a repeat of a Monday big hit?
Looking at the color day we could expect Wednesday to be big reversal since it is blue!
Correction a Green day so not sure.

click on image to enlarge


Wednesday also has a proprietary count as a high.

One word! update

Update for Friday OE:

The PC ratio at 1.90 is bullish with the $spx+vix indicator bearish for Friday.
Still on a sell but all we have done is go up and down. If Tom Demark couldn't call it today on Bloomberg how can I ??



update:
Official sell was Friday close or open today.
Look for spx 1163 soon


INSANELYOVERBOUGHT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Jan 2011 to pending OE in Oct 2011 on Spx.

We think the high is normally Thursday of option week but facts speak different.

Jan 2011 Blue week High Monday, Low Thursday

Feb 2011 Blue week Highs Thursday Friday, lows M-Tu

March Blue week High Monday , low Wed, then sharp rally

April Blue week High Monday, Low Thursday

May Red week Low Tuesday High Thursday

HOY so far May-2-11 @ 1370 spx

June Red week High Tuesday, Low Thursday

July Red week High Monday, Low Thursday

August Green week High Monday,Low Friday

September Green week low Monday, high Friday

Oct in play

So net net the chances for a high are Monday and a low Wed/Thursday, or visa versa if Monday is a low, so watch for the action vs the last Friday for clues. Monday could have a big trading range failure. Monday is the key to OE week.

Jerry O

Going to a sell/update

Thursday Chart for Friday click to enlarge.

Up late tonight checking my facts. We have tested 1220/1230 several times (Spx). My numbers are right where I want them. A few have gone extreme.
I will be shocked if we can do anything but go down after Thursday market.
So putting it on the line here we could /should be heading for Spx 1086 or a retest of the low.
All in Oct.


What ever higher high we have in next 2 days should be it. Wed the 12th is a blue day and this rally started on the 4th also a blue day.
We have the PC ratio at 2.03 and other numbers I use getting to over bought levels.
I have 1193 then 1184 as signs of weakness. SPX
We should have an am high and then start to flounder. Not a one day event.

Hello .618

click image to enlarge.

up date to red week Buy Signal

Tuesday Blue day of Red week.
Several things happened today ( Monday). My Advanced Get program issued a wave 5. That wave 5 looks tired of course it could extend 1069.1050 or 1020.Spx
I also receive a buy signal on my work.
I think 1118 spx will confirm a rally. First I would look for a gap up from oversold close, then a fade into 10:15-10:30 that I consider important times.
I also have a 23 count of my counts for tomorrow.

Any thing else happens then I'm wrong.

RED Week with 110TD L imbedded

We open up Monday with a Red day of a red week ( action color) with the 110 TD Low on Thursday a green day. That 110 TD low comes from 5-2-11 (1370) high and a count back 110 more TD has a low so L,H,L cycle so far. My personal color study finds 85% of super days are either red or green. Green week a red hit. Red week a green day hit. Is this cast in stone, of course not. But to learn more about color days you can visit Hank at HL CAMP (www.programtrading.com/color.htm)
Thanks to him for posting the color days at a glance.
Bottom line as far as this week I believe we trade no higher than 6 Spx points Monday and then take a V into Thursday Morning low ( duh 10:30?) then start a rally that spy calls could be bought. This may not be the final low this month. But 1021 is high on my list.


I also think a major low is possible on the 21 at 1021 Spx but lets get this week done first.
As far as the wave count we are close to a 5th wave plunge.


I have a chart here from M Burk and you can sign up for his free email. This chart projects a
seasonal low the last week of Oct. So many cycles hit in this time frame.

Looking for a rally a few days

Update for Thursday

Looks like it will start with a great rally.
PC ratio2.01,Trin, Tick all bullish. Su all day

Update For Wednesday 9-28.
We are over bought but just barely. ( 1 of my indicators) I think the sell comes Thursday/Friday am so far. Isee looks bullish (wed) and would like to see Vix lower to name a few other opinions.
This is a blue week same as last month EOM window dress. I'm net short and day trade the up moves. Wed low am ,hi pm day. Click image to enlarge.








Update for Tuesday: As long as indicators remain in a normal range working great. I have no call for Tuesday or target.


My view here for this week is we could rally.
Why? I have several proprietary indicators showing we are very over sold ( not RSI and the like)then their is EOM window dressing

We also had an inside day Friday I consider that bullish! Will stick with my posted targets at Khalsas pad ( link on right) and that is 1139 ( hit once) and 1162 all Spx. My plan for Monday we could test 1114 ish again, BUT if we close higher than Friday's close we need to be long. That is my best guess and how I will play.

History + the Future click chart to enlarge.......
This chart shows us breaking down under the angle with the 50 day moving average and wave 5 targets.

Where are we? This chart shows a fractal from the ATH 15wks then 8 weeks, if we get a close repeat we have 3wks left. Mid Oct.......





There are many cycles hitting in mid Oct suggesting an area where a major low could happen. Mine seem to center on the Oct 1st to 21st not close enough? Well we wiill update when it gets closer.
This is a chart of the color weeks. Does it tell a story? Link to right to read all about it.

Please visit all sites on my favorite list. Tell Gord that black back ground is tough to read the fonts. Could be me.

Short term sells are here

In my group Friday I posted today is get short day. Near the close I did.
Saturday I found this on CNBC from GS who is singing a new tune, and bearish if you ask me!

Nothing Bullish

If we look at MACD we notice it is same area as Oct 2008 and Feb 2009 and ready to offer a sell
seen very clearly on the second chart.



Just a note of importance: If the Dax = the Spx at this level of Dax then Spx would be 950ish. This spread will tighten sooner than later. Here is a chart of Spx with Dax in black line you be the judge.


Remember it is triple witch this week.


Monday only we want to be long 1166.87 or short 1145.49 Spx Personally I expect much lower at 10:20 am. and go from there. ((S1 Friday =S4 Monday)) Decoder ring talk.

1200 first? update 9-8-11

Where are we ?? My guess!

We will try this again using % and months. On the chart I have the ATH + months to correction point 1270 Spx or 19%
Then we have the 2011 high 1370 so far a 17% drop.
If ATH =1576-1270 306 points then 1370 -306 would equal 1064 Spx .
History may come close or not.
Remain short this should run to Aug 2012 to 2013

Now vs June July 2008

Click charts to enlarge

We do have the June July 2008 look. If that is the case then we should bounce around for the next 15/20 TD's before we plunge again. Target could be 1192 to 1222 Spx.

On this chart you see 5 years of support resistance in this area.


When things get bad a back based review helps ( 5years)

Wave 3 still in progress

We didn't get much of a bounce.
I'm on vacation. Holding my bearish etf's.
Looking: 1065 1075 spx

New Target for Wed-Thursday

Looking up for Wed Thursday target 1266, possible 1289 spx JO

But remain net short with bearish ETF's

Targets for Monday or Tuesday

On the chart below I have targets of Spx 1247.07 to 1269.04 for Monday or Tuesday.Those numbers come from 7% lower than the 5-1H or the 7-7H
I prefer 1247.07 or less for a perfect low.
That would include a trin of 2.50 or higher. A lower HIGH,LOW,ClOSE of day before.
click chart to enlarge.

Possible Action

High very close within next 6TD's

The 1355 never came as the green trend line became resistance. Now we will be looking for the
perfect low under 1300 some where.




I'm looking a high within the next 6 TD. We are close to a high with spread sheet numbers.
I would like to see the vix a little lower, the SPX above 1355 and a burn out on upvolume (92%?) with a tick over 1000+. The end of month has many 30 degree cycles of high and lows.

I have rented an excavator to dig trenches for a new deck, so busy measuring and buying the 12"sono tube and base. Town rules! As pictured.