Still looking down

Predictions

>This is not Japan 1995 after that EQ this is two different major events the out come will be different. Forget that history template.

>The Fed will find its hands full with Japan, Yen vs. QE2 vs. Japan treasury holding.

A severe cut back in QE2 US purchase program.

>Inflation will climb as shortages create demand in certain products. Aka Richard Nixon freezes.

Our 1250 target filled faster than first thought, so fast is good.

Charts as we look at Advanced Gets Elliott Wave format we notice that SPX 1250 was there to be hit, we notice an overlap at 1294.26 so we should not go much above that and 1300 should be strong resistance. Or this count is wrong.

You will notice on the gap charts that 1257 is a huge target.

On the chart of stocks % above the 50sma you will notice we were weak before Japan and last 2 days with a lot of market noise we are still on a sell.

I stick with my target of 1115 SPX on or near 4-25 currently, sell the rallies.

http://trendsby3.blogspot.com/

http://www.barchart.com/quotes/futures/$SPX

Jerry

Finding the low.

The major correction in April 4-26-10 H was a 17% lower move to 7-1-10.
If we use that as our template then 2-18-11 - 17% would = spx 1115.58

If 4-26-10 to 7-1-10 is 66CD (calendar days) or 45 degree.

Then 2-18-11 H to low 4-25-11 or 45 degree and 360 degree from the 4-26-10 low. H to L anniversary.

Summary spx 1115.58 target on 4-25-11

Jerry O

Thud coming

I think we will just fall out of bed by Thursday I could be early!
Give Wednesday a chance to rally more but hope it is contained at 1296 spx
Advanced Get has us in a bearish count. We had an 18% upvolume day not the sell out volume you would expect. Vix spiked the Bollinger Band many say that is a rally sign but not always.
Second chart has the % of stocks below the 50dma on a sell.
Still like 1250 as target, a fib and a 7% correction from the high.

click image to enlarge

Still looking down 1250 good target

This has nothing to do with World events since the market was getting weak per the Thursday chart of the stocks above the 50% ma.

Big drop ahead?

We cross that 49 sell line on the chart and we will drop fast. Very short term we had some congestion but it finally broke .

Trend up unless 1302.58 falls

Trend has turned to UP.

One last chance for the bears is to close under the 1302.58 gap on Monday AM.

Bullish numbers are 1327.22 the Feb close and an average, then a number I keep coming across at spx 1333.We blow through that and a new high is near. However I think we just painfully work higher. I will post only one chart of congestion that I have been using.

Depending how it breaks will help to clear the air.

Sell the news.

Early read at 5:20 PM

Today was almost carbon copy of Feb 1^st 2011

Upvol 88% vs 88%. Point gain 22.53 vs 21.47 spx

Tick 1218 vs 916, trin .57 vs .61

What does that tell me? Friday will be a flat (inside?) day and that is bullish.

Other than that we look for failures.

Was today a buy the rumor and Friday sell the news?

Stay Bearish unless

Why to stay bearish? Thursday. 3-4

The stock market hates 2 things! Good news and uncertainty we have both.

I think you want to ride with the gap direction for Thursday till 9:45 then watch for a reverse.

The S1 and R1 support/resistance will get hit as a guide.

Dax and Ftse are important leaders.

Even the Sox that was so strong has flat lined here. chart below......

Speaking of the Resistance R2 is spx 1320 or just about 61.8%

of the 1332-1303 . I would not want to see us go above that 1320/1322 area on a close basis.

Tuesday recap 3-2

My view is 10 days ago a formula I used pulled spx 1333 out and we stuck there for 3 days. I thought that was the high but we went a little higher. Now we are to test that again with a 78.6% hit =1333. I hope that will stop it like a brick wall. I don't understand Roy's count but his first number is a throw away and when we come back to a fib hit that should be it. On the table also is the % of stock above the 50dma flat lined today on an up day. We had the up-volume actually down. With a weak trin most of the day the bear will rule Tuesday if 1333 holds. I would also watch the Dax as an early clue.

Choppy for a few days

Thinking a choppy few days then we see. The down trend is weak. Perhaps you noticed money came out of the blue chips and filtered down to $30 or less stocks. True signs of rotations and speculation. Cheap stocks could have a good run for a few weeks.

Looks like the Upvolume burned a few dollars trying to move a few points to 1st resistance


The % above 50dma makes me think chop like when we tested 1173 several times

How much rally?

Technically we have done no damage yet!
Looking at the chart below it have us down in the area of the last low. Peaking around 11-5 at 1227 then tanking to 1173 and testing that area for weeks. Things could level out here with a bounce. Bears watch spx 1311 then 1327. I think 1311 a good pivot on a clsose basis. We need to tighten up to get a big move I think.
VIX +SPX calls for up day Friday.

This is a % of stocks above their 50 day ma. The actual sell comes under 50% but I notice direction helps.