Kicking and screaming higher!

The ISEE is neutral
Stock above 50 dma are considered on a buy but getting over bought

The up vol % has been 50% ,58%, 61% so neutral also.
What is bearish the vix. It has been a good time to buy longer term puts of think more bearish with it under 17 of late.

Trend is UP until.

As far as my model I think i said it but it went to VST buy on 3-24 crossing both 1298.33 and 1304.28 on that same day. On 3-29 it confirmed a up CIT was happening.
Today and yesterday we started to look weak but not close enough to a sell, for Monday 1321 could kick it off but not going to happen. When we hit 1344 and plunged the next day I felt it was not a high because it didn't follow the pattern I have worked on in the archives.
IE: you hit a high then pullback next day but 3 day you do a fakeout rally not topping but scary.

Very short term buy.

We went to a vst buy Thursday morning. We need to get below 1306 then 1300 very quickly or the trend will remain up and we will kick in a CIT. Nothing goes straight up.

One bearish thought here that we bounced off one Gann cluster (lower) to the (upper) for a stop sign.

Still looking down

Predictions

>This is not Japan 1995 after that EQ this is two different major events the out come will be different. Forget that history template.

>The Fed will find its hands full with Japan, Yen vs. QE2 vs. Japan treasury holding.

A severe cut back in QE2 US purchase program.

>Inflation will climb as shortages create demand in certain products. Aka Richard Nixon freezes.

Our 1250 target filled faster than first thought, so fast is good.

Charts as we look at Advanced Gets Elliott Wave format we notice that SPX 1250 was there to be hit, we notice an overlap at 1294.26 so we should not go much above that and 1300 should be strong resistance. Or this count is wrong.

You will notice on the gap charts that 1257 is a huge target.

On the chart of stocks % above the 50sma you will notice we were weak before Japan and last 2 days with a lot of market noise we are still on a sell.

I stick with my target of 1115 SPX on or near 4-25 currently, sell the rallies.

http://trendsby3.blogspot.com/

http://www.barchart.com/quotes/futures/$SPX

Jerry

Finding the low.

The major correction in April 4-26-10 H was a 17% lower move to 7-1-10.
If we use that as our template then 2-18-11 - 17% would = spx 1115.58

If 4-26-10 to 7-1-10 is 66CD (calendar days) or 45 degree.

Then 2-18-11 H to low 4-25-11 or 45 degree and 360 degree from the 4-26-10 low. H to L anniversary.

Summary spx 1115.58 target on 4-25-11

Jerry O

Thud coming

I think we will just fall out of bed by Thursday I could be early!
Give Wednesday a chance to rally more but hope it is contained at 1296 spx
Advanced Get has us in a bearish count. We had an 18% upvolume day not the sell out volume you would expect. Vix spiked the Bollinger Band many say that is a rally sign but not always.
Second chart has the % of stocks below the 50dma on a sell.
Still like 1250 as target, a fib and a 7% correction from the high.

click image to enlarge

Still looking down 1250 good target

This has nothing to do with World events since the market was getting weak per the Thursday chart of the stocks above the 50% ma.

Big drop ahead?

We cross that 49 sell line on the chart and we will drop fast. Very short term we had some congestion but it finally broke .

Trend up unless 1302.58 falls

Trend has turned to UP.

One last chance for the bears is to close under the 1302.58 gap on Monday AM.

Bullish numbers are 1327.22 the Feb close and an average, then a number I keep coming across at spx 1333.We blow through that and a new high is near. However I think we just painfully work higher. I will post only one chart of congestion that I have been using.

Depending how it breaks will help to clear the air.

Sell the news.

Early read at 5:20 PM

Today was almost carbon copy of Feb 1^st 2011

Upvol 88% vs 88%. Point gain 22.53 vs 21.47 spx

Tick 1218 vs 916, trin .57 vs .61

What does that tell me? Friday will be a flat (inside?) day and that is bullish.

Other than that we look for failures.

Was today a buy the rumor and Friday sell the news?