Sunday, April 5, 2015

Distribution

John Murphy posted a chart showing the candle volume candles, with red candles larger than white.
This suggests more selling on down days.
To add to this chart I added the OBV and the A/D distribution  line.
Look for yourself.


Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Short Week

Sell signal IN.
Wednesday a wild day. I said if we close under 2060 everything would go to a sell in my stuff. Who knows what will happen the way we are so wild. I still have puts.
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Tuesday Evening close
Mechanical says today was EDT up signal.
Mechanical say today was inside day, I consider inside days bullish.
Facts say a close under spx 2060 everything goes to a sell and bulls in serious trouble.
I have no call as to true direction.  Jerry O
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Monday evening close,

Every thing went back to a buy with this big move up!

We would have to give this rally up real fast since we were barely oversold.

The only scenario I like for Tuesday is this: Monday was a EDT, so we open weak Tuesday, make an intraday high and then plunge.

If we open weak and just back off a little all day then more rally ahead.

Happy trading.

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Why we should worry about a correction

Friday-Close and update.
LOW could be Monday or Tuesday. Monday is 5 TD from last high. Thinking the bottom will come with a EDT close. That would put low Tuesday.
Friday was Inside day

inside day is bullish odds are better if down day, but it was up so I think it fails.
Every thing I have is still on a sell.
Chart shows the overbought area on Spx and other things

This chart is an indicator I call Planet V. It is supposed to show overbought,or oversold area.  This is a chart of INTC today showing a clear  OS position with indicator into the price area. I hope to smooth it out more.

Click charts to enlarge    Jerry O





 















Update Wednesday. More crossovers and a prediction


Just look at colors









 Here we have Planet V that I have had to ask someone in my group to help chart, but I have a lot more to add to it.   Ordering a chart book.
.




Tuesday 6pm March 24th 2015





He may not have the same take!





For data miners 8 weeks of data . hint they are screaming bullish @65%




Looking at my work we did get a MA crossover SELL and a bear bias marker

 
Jerry 

Thursday, March 19, 2015

Low Confidence

Still not getting the right numbers.W5 over laps W3 so no vote again.



 







Update at 12:15 Spx 2087.50
OK Last night I was unsure. Today at 12:15 PM ET after looking over the market action I need a close under 2081 SPX to get a serious trend change signal.
Lucky so far as I did short the close.
Stay tuned for tonight's report.   Jerry O




Going to make a low confidence call.

Outside day usually bearish.

Blow out day should be a down CIT.

Short above Spx 2099.50 could be zero or much more above.
Rates are not going up because things are getting worst , not really bullish,me thinks.



Low confidence because I have no sells on mechanical or ma’s.

I didn’t understand the EW pattern today.

We didn’t thrust into the close.

Jerry
Not investment advice.

Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Recap For Wed.


The EDT worked great but it was unplayable, damn.
Low was 11:20  am et
Wed mkt we have an inside day I consider it bullish. Of course it's Janet's day so who know's
Jerry


Recap Monday
We had the rally as predicted.
Monday Close  March 16th
Getting a signal we should look to short above Spx 2081.19. It could be zero above or 30 points above.
That's all I can say today.      Jerry O

EDT

Saturday, March 14, 2015

Rally Time

click charts to enlarge

 



Friday, March 13, 2015

Rally could be much ado about nothing!



Rally could be much ado about nothing!
My MA cross/over  still on a sell!
My mechanical model still on a sell!
We hit a fib level today. Charts way below.
I think we watch for high AM low PM. (3:30)
Spx 2056.70 is on my radar.

Charts
Advanced Get to my surprise offered daily close wave 3 with little up power.
Based on that I have lower my S#2
Live Elliot Wave offered no surprise but an intraday wave 5.



Thursday, March 12, 2015

Tuesday, March 10, 2015

More downside


Update at 3:15 Tuesday
Remember my target in advance is Spx 2009 to 2020 posted Saturday
Today we have 863 advance 2200 decl so far
NH 20 NL 119
This will feed on it's self.
 Look like it will be tomorrow,  at least, unless we dip the last 45M  
Jerry O


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12:30 Update. Tuesday
Once (if) we break 2050 I look for much more down.
IF counting I see only W1 & W2 in so far.  I'm not a pro counter at all.
It's important we close on the LOD    low of day JO





Monday close
The most bullish thing I can say is we had an inside day usually bullish.
I suspect it won't work. Had the vix been positive that would have been bearish missed by .15.
Volume had a down tilt most of the day. New lows have picked up.-I'm still on a MA sell.
We closed on a S/R area not only long term but intraday
Conclusion Unless we take out 2083.49 on the open I would expect a drop or sharply down day.     JO


Saturday, March 7, 2015

My Scenario

I have been real bearish for over a week buying some oex puts,some vix calls and spy puts.
Too late to get short now,me thinks, there will be a better short entry if I have this right. BTW for protection, Fun and games only.
Don't believe any thing you read on Internet. That said here we go!
First chart ( click to enlarge) Elliot Trigger offers more down side---.S/R offers 2019 (ALL SPX) --Fib ..618 offers 2008  My best guess is we have a good low for a WAVE A.
Interesting March 6th is 6 years from the devil number 666 on March 6th 2009.

More clues we were  ready to turn. Of course the 4.94 pattern way below. This is the Bollinger bands offering a CIT in that configuration. John Bollinger offered it as a golden nugget in his course.
click chart to enlarge.    Jerry O