AAPL fills gap 3rd chart dn.

                                                                                                  

I have had this gap chart for months, findly gets filled or very close.
I have not looked back to see where next support should









                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              
                                                                                This charts looks like it could turn down.Indicators I have used for years  not working in this bull run. One problem I have is vol % refused to get overbought.
the fact we are up 8 TD in a row means nothing. Back in 2003 and 2004 we had a few 8-9 TD runs and other than a few days pullback it was up and away again. This bull is getting too much press a barrons or some cover could call the top.                                         

Weird Wind

Wednesday  23rd Mkt.
The Dow up 80 points at one point all on the dime of IBM.
A little weaker on adv and little strong on declines.
OEX P/C ratio .85 after being at 1.00,2.00 and even 5.00 of late.
You would have to go back to 11-26-12 to see a low in that area and the next day was down.
The upvol today was down on an up market.
The vix+ spx = dn tomorrow. (70%)
Strangely the tick and trin were very close to 11-26-12 numbers.
Remember this all happened before The AAPL effect.
We have a cycle low Thursday

We could have the first down day in 8TD.
Best Jerry O

5 days 5 plunges and recover

Plunge,recover etc. Looks like a bearish open again as the Oex p/c ratio is even higher than yesterday @
5.5  and the spy P/C @ 2.82 these are very high numbers but do they mean anything.
History: We had high P/c in 2010 in 2011 and 2012 now and then.
Before that you have to go back to 10-30-2007 day before we tried a retest of the 2007 high.
They don't call a high but do appear near a high +/- 5 TD
The problem here is once you see this pattern and you paly it, will it work?
In 5 TD we have gone from 1472.12 to 1472.63 a gain of .51

My 144TDL didn't work so I don't know. I have a reaction day on the 18th

Oex ratio 3.40 Big Move

If you scroll my blog you can find where I have posted this big ratio.
10-2,10-8,12-10, on the Oex. Tonight I did a little more research and found the Spy @2.09 and the QQQ @3.09 These are all high

*I have a 144 TDL for Wednesday.
*We have the vix+spx calling for a down day (70%)
*My chart yesterday called for down.
*We have double tops here and there.
*I'm over bought but OB can be as bad as OS as far as surprises.
*Oex down .31  with most others up.  leader!

If all this bearishness fails we will climb fast and hard. The market has had many chances to go down like Tuesday AM only to come back so there is upside momentum.

The DAx and SPx usually run together and the DAx was down.

Big move is all I can say.  I hope it will be down!

Drop ahead

This charts shows a third hit in the OB area.
3rd over was 12-18 @Spx 1448 with a drop total of 49+ points

2nd over  was 1-3/4 1467.94 with a point loss in 2 TD  16+spx

Current today new hit so we could drop quickly at least 16 Spx but I would hope more.

We are as OB today as back on those 2 days.
I have a 144TDL on the 16th but other clusters this week.
Jerry O

Bulls stampede, should we?

 Hard to find bear news so had to look deep for weird signs of extremes.
As we look at the CPCI left and the blue line, it seems to line up with to much extreme in market.
Some dates12-19-2007 days before we turned down,11-26-12 again before a dip and 12-18-22-2009 .

 Here we have that July-Aug period in 2011 where we dipped then peaked look like what is happening now. This sideway pattern can be bearish if in fact we have a double top.

 Talk about bulls this P&F just got crazy bullish but does look for a pull back to 1440.
To be honest this P&F since I have watched it in many months get to bullish at turning points, added it to list of weird charts

 I  think I'm in love with this $NYMO chart.
To me it should have ran higher with this rally but
looking more like it wants to go down. The bottom indicator  with that knee jerk look as I recall I looked back and that happens at a turning point but doesn't have to happen tomorrow or next week.

Here we have from Advanced Get  and using it's MOB ( make or break) indicator I have made several projections.

From the M pivot with arrow , well maybe you best click chart to see it enlarged to to understand..
Basiclly what I'm saying is M before dip gave on
MOB, then M before another dip gave a second MOB and the second rallied a little higher.
Still both are double tops.
Looking weekly Dow and Spx in 5ht waves,Dax daily in 5th wave

`This got a lot of shock and awe.
I have to update it because it is weekly and will not move fast. That said I would hope the market shows it true colors with one more shot higher or
gap down and follow the yak color.
If it takes longer then the low not in April 2014.

My cycle book by CLIF DROKE  say's i'am a little early on the 10 yr cycle time.

Jerry O

NYMO looks like it offers a sell.signal.

 Update vix + spx down = upday 70% of the time. I have had the 9th as a reaction day for quit awhile.
At first I thought it would be up but could be big move in both directions.

 CHART
Crossing the green line on the NYMO should offer lower prices. That price on the SPX better be 1445.31 or lower soon.
That is 1/2 the big bar move.
We waste days going down only a little starts to offer other thoughts.
I don't want a sideway's market here.
The market moved so fast that indicator have yet to catch up.

Jerry O


On my lower chart I reread the cycles book by Clif Droke and my April low maybe a little too early.
I will adjust it when I see what Gann line it wants to follow down.

ST topping LT low April 2014

   I see many are looking ahead this time of year to the future. I have come up with something different based on what I see out their.  However not than many points apart, but yet I have a date.If it's going to work it will be soon. Perhaps the public re-looks over the non money saver the Congress passed and the cliff 2 is in Feburary. This will be the ciff 1,2 ,3 ,4 year. 

I ' am bearish looking for a top any day now. I have the 9th picked but it could be in already.
My spread sheet is overbought and many charts look  close to cross-overs.
Buy bearish ETF's is a thought but not an endorsement.












On this chart I clone Gann boxes from the yr 2000 high.
I offer a date based on these boxes.
The boxes are in an area of a high currently
Do we have to touch red upper trend line no we don't.

Click chart to expand.

Jerry O

Topping

 We are topping here. My spreadsheet has finally offer 3 sell signals. Does that mean we drop tomorrow? No, we could, but this is a great area to buy bearish ETf'  and build on it.

Looking at this chart ( click to blow up) of the CPce we are in topping area red line.



 

 The dollar looks to have bottomed. Rising $$ usually means lower stocks.

 As we look at the $ RHSPX
you will notice that we bearly made it to the bull line with this strong market rally.
To me this is a major divergence

And every thing I said yesterday I looked for an afternoon high that we got but I thought it would end firm but the beige book screwed that scenario.

IN GENERAL HIGH VOLUME IS BEARISH TO ME.


Jerry O.

Thursday High and reversal

 Several things make me look for a high Thursday.
Things happen in 3's  and Thursday  yellow 3 day.
I would look for an afternoon high.

Chart shows $CPCE looking for that OB high.

This chart of the volume in green spike happened the day before so Wednesday big rally was not supported, and the fact that volume was down
offen has the next day flat to down.


Extremes are bearish and the vix is close to a  BB low.