Brick wall #1

Just another brick in the wall?
Clues?

Ca-ching

Just sold at 3:55 my weekly Oex 615 C , profit $7.90
Me selling volatility and what I think the market will do could and should be different.
Jerry

I will stay long...

I think this say's it all. You need to study this chart.

BTW I was surprised we took out Thursday low and had an outside day. Not a favorite day as most are bearish. I made $1.20 on 1 option oex 615C.
I have now moved to the next week 615 oex C
again.

Jerry






From CNN  http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/?iid=H_INV_QL

Will add to right for link under favorites!

Get Long

 Putting my technical skills on the line.
This is a good place to get long for a Short term rally.
Personally I think the low was yesterday Thursday and Friday should open firm and not look back.

#1 upvol up an a down day is bullish
#2 trin .68 I have. bullish
#3 All of yesterday charts. bullish
#4 todays charts. P&F  looking at 1390 .
Has lowered the longer term to 1250 from 1290

 Here we have a nice fractal where pink line was crossed to bottom  and like wise in the second circle close to the same size.
My indicators are seeing the area around 11-25-11
 and 5-18-12 where we had sharp rallies.
















Cycles are looking for some movement.


This is for fun and games.

Rally Time

 I know many are looking for a crash here but I fail to see anything but an oversold market.
You need volatility to get a crash and vix is low.
Yes we are in AGET wave 3 a crash wave but don't see it with other works.

Bullish view #1 Chart on left has big red volume where other bottoms have formed.

 #2  Even my $naz model is now in the OS area

 Gann box wants to stop drop.

 Can .618 stop the drop?
Can that tangle of angles stop the drop?

 My pride and job the overbought/ oversold sheet.

WE ARE IN BUY MODE.


Jerry O

Volume and oversold models say up to Friday.

Wednesday down

 Quick review at 1am ET.
Future are up sharply but I still think we are down Wednesday.We do have the vix +spx saying UP
not shown.

#1-My bear view is this chart shows the volume in bearish mode under blue lines

 #2 We had a outside day today, enlarge chart to view the record. No perfect but close. Most technical analyses says inside and outside days are useless or undecided, I think different.

Here is the AGET view of the count. Other then the pitch fork trail not much as far as direction.

My parabolic indicator also looks for a down or at least a lower low. for Wednesday.

As far as being OB/OS I'm close to being OS but not there yet in the SPX, nor the Nas. We need a thud down.

Option week, but trend still down

Quotes of mine Friday in my Group
"I don't think we rally much here with out looking 1390 sticks out in my mind as a target and we are there."

And we hit 1391 like a brick wall with a fairly weak close.
**********************************************************************************

"I go with 1266  :-* then 1166  or 20% 1266 Spx sure, 1166 iffy
The short term rally should be as Rxxxx indicates 1400 expiry. I have 1402-1410 and a rare out side chance we could see 1419 (a very strong sell.)
The Spx seems to be front running today more balance Monday.
 Hadik 14-16 high
I have a 144TDL 26/27th
So far upvol peaked at 1PM  or 74%"

*********************************************************************************

 Saturday Current thoughts market could pull back Monday offering a buy and push higher into Thursday

possible Friday. The more we drop Monday (if we do) the less upside. Drops will be fast in a bear market. I gave my targets above.

Here we have the Treasury Bond and $$$
playing togetherness.
click and chart to enlarge.
As I said last week 9 chart below away's the
Dollar has bottomed .

How can this be good?

The RailRoad Index topped, then gapped down ,
later the gap was filled and weakness is the norm.

 New York Advance rolling rolling
long standing  target 1266 as marked.

 My view of John Murphy 13/34 ema
We are in the yellow so look left for the future.
Macd and PPO confirming

The P&F I built had a target 1350 now lowered
 to 1290. Kind of say's 1350 is real possible.
Why not on the 1290 bandwagon here?
Seems a little too soom.
The P&F has a 25 point miss so far as I can tell
with my experience .

What is this? This is my buy- sell model on the NDX.
It is not on a buy yet.
Do not risk money on this unless it agree's with your own work. Fun and games only.

So in the land of majic how would this work.
First you need to get oversold (18) taking a position long (calls) then on a rally if after 6 Trading days it not above 50 sell cash.
If after 6 trading days it's heading for 70 then consider selling on a down turn 73 for sure.
Will this get the top no remember this is option model sell premium.
The mood  of market seems to come back to 30
in green a fast move and calls again with same 6 TD scenario. As we all know the market can stay over bought for a long period of time so no (puts) are suggested unless 73 - 70 is breached.

Trend still dn but OS

Today was the 30 TDL of the 10-40 tdc. Was it the final low not by a long shot.
We could of course bounce here  looking at the oversold condition of the market. The horizontal lines tell the worst depths.
Jerry O

$ has bottomed

$USD has bottomed.
Reading Eric Hadik free news letter, he say's it all about the $.

Looking at my chart the trend indicator I use has crossed to a buy.

The blue down trend line maybe gave a better buy.
I would guess a strong $ rally will push stocks down and killing already weak earnings.

Jerry O

Looks Weak

* Click images to enlarge *

Trend finders look weak.
Spx runs into 50dma resistance.

The EOM rally I looked for a 1 day event, shows
weakness. Monday will tell us if it was a major reversal, but volume doesn't support that out look yet..

NY advance dropping soon offers a target at the bottom.

 John Murphy indicator is on a sell.
Yellow is showing could lead to fast drop.

Spx x 50% A break of the red lines we gut the bull hogs.



Any drastic indicators were very quiet Friday market.
PC ration was neutral, Vix etc. nothing popped at me.