Air pocket ahead. Very OB

Can we go 3 for 3 on peaks?
Yes we can. I'm as OB as 6-19-12 where we dropped 54 spx points in days.
3-19-12 where we dropped 28 spx points in days.
Volume total is OB,Volume % is OB, my spread sheet counts are OB.
We have a 144TDL due Thursday that could be an inverted high. My number breaking is spx 1369.17 and S1 is 1366.76.
Alas the target maybe only 1340.

Key Reports and Events:

Tue - Jul 03 - 10:00 - Factory Orders
Tue - Jul 03 - 14:00 - Auto/Truck Sales
Thu - Jul 05 - 07:00 - MBA Mortgage Index
Thu - Jul 05 - 07:30 - Challenger Job Cuts
Thu - Jul 05 - 10:00 – European Central Bank Policy Statement
Thu - Jul 05 - 08:15 - ADP Employment
Thu - Jul 05 - 08:30 - Initial Claims
Thu - Jul 05 - 10:00 - ISM Services
Thu - Jul 05 - 11:00 - Oil Inventories
Fri - Jul 06 - 08:30 - Employment Report

Volume suggests its close to over.

Volume looks peak or close.
Being a holiday week we could get very volatile . The vix is as low as the last peak or a good time to get short.
I'm not calling this an oversold rally but a momentum rally. We were OS at 2:30 Thursday once the momentum kicked in the HFT computers kicked in, short covering kicked in so the rally was feed by cash and momentum kept the rally going into Friday OB close.
I just hope we get a short setup Monday intraday.
This rally could be history.
Jerry O

Low in volume wise, uptrend

Looking at the MEBOB indicator but not as strictly as he goes I see an upward trend for this month of June and it matches the seasonal pattern of early July strength.
1-1 was low to high
2-1 was low to high
3-1 was low to high
4-2 was hi to low
5-1 was hi to low
6-1 is looking low to high ????
7-2 could be high to low ****



Thursday Close
Guess I'm the black cat because today looked more like a STL or a 1 day later 55TDL
These markets that plunge into the close near the LOD seemed to have dead cat bounces.
Look for a lower low then rally. IF we can't close above Thursday close then more down.
trin 3.43 and a few vol spikes.

This chart on Friday has the low in for now. Jerry O

Bernanke Wed and new stink

I have the cross hairs of a sell but with Bernanke Wednesday we could go up another 10-15 spx points.
That AGET sell failed-DOA nest day.
I don't think the angle I drew a week ago will stop us but it could. (red)

If we did turn down here it could complete a w4 and ran us down to finish w5. or it could be trying to finish a crash W3 or C wave, time will tell.

As far as Friday my spreadsheet put me in a cross hairs to a sell.

However this volume chart had no spike Thursday or Friday making this move not complete. It's not Greece,
it's the world.

Japan could default in 2014-15, India
on the Cusip of a down grade. This is new stink.

AGET offering a down bias

I don't know with this high freak trading
what will happen here. I would hope we don't start down till Thursday close or Friday.
The 55 TDL is on the 20th

My number is 1318.90 we will probably rally if breached again.
Down bias offered in red.
Jerry

GOING HIGHER 1335 1344

AGET offered and up bias 3 days ago.
I like the look of the rectangle and a
1344 target.
Today the Trin was 2.10 to 2.75 depending on vendor.
Seems a wash out.

click chart to expand.



We also had a volume spike offering hints of a low near.

Had we not had this action today I was headed for a serious high by Thursday
now that is on hold.

Jerry O

1322 1335 Spx

If this rally had been from a neutral area instead of very oversold it would be on my warning list.
900 tick OB
.63 trin OB
92% upv OB .

That said I think we fight higher 1322 1335 but
Bernanke speaking today ???

Long term bearish, V Short term higher .

Jerry

Looks like low is in

We are oversold on anything I look at ,that could change fast in this market but would take days.
This chart has the 20 and 40TD cycle and we could be looking at a 40TDL +/- a few days,
or will test bottom in next 20 days.

The volume spike should offer higher prices .

We stopped at last wave 1 1267spx think that strong support..


Jerry

Respect this Market

First


The first chart shows the volume and you can see clear direction and capitulation in the past however in the near month no such blow out meaning the market can go lower or we need some heavy volume for direction.
Monday I expect us to move higher for one day UNLESS we are following the pattern of 5-15,16,17th where we just kept closing at or very near the LOD.

I guess we know Adam from Bloomberg. He posted a price of 1193 Spx based on 2011 actions.
On my chart I have a retrace of .0618 or 1207 Spx so very near his target. He based that on 2011
something that Hadik mentioned on his free letter following an 8 week cycle.
My thoughts after this sell off we could rally but I think that is a week ahead of us less indicator give direction volume and price.
Jerry O

Big move?

Channel holding but for Friday I have mixed signals.
On 5-30- AGET Offered a down bias.( yellow line)
Today Thursday I have a bottom signal and a vix+spx rally indicator.
Last vix-spx signal we had a big gap and recover.
We could break down out of the channel.
Hard call.

Jerry