AGET offering a down bias

I don't know with this high freak trading
what will happen here. I would hope we don't start down till Thursday close or Friday.
The 55 TDL is on the 20th

My number is 1318.90 we will probably rally if breached again.
Down bias offered in red.
Jerry

GOING HIGHER 1335 1344

AGET offered and up bias 3 days ago.
I like the look of the rectangle and a
1344 target.
Today the Trin was 2.10 to 2.75 depending on vendor.
Seems a wash out.

click chart to expand.



We also had a volume spike offering hints of a low near.

Had we not had this action today I was headed for a serious high by Thursday
now that is on hold.

Jerry O

1322 1335 Spx

If this rally had been from a neutral area instead of very oversold it would be on my warning list.
900 tick OB
.63 trin OB
92% upv OB .

That said I think we fight higher 1322 1335 but
Bernanke speaking today ???

Long term bearish, V Short term higher .

Jerry

Looks like low is in

We are oversold on anything I look at ,that could change fast in this market but would take days.
This chart has the 20 and 40TD cycle and we could be looking at a 40TDL +/- a few days,
or will test bottom in next 20 days.

The volume spike should offer higher prices .

We stopped at last wave 1 1267spx think that strong support..


Jerry

Respect this Market

First


The first chart shows the volume and you can see clear direction and capitulation in the past however in the near month no such blow out meaning the market can go lower or we need some heavy volume for direction.
Monday I expect us to move higher for one day UNLESS we are following the pattern of 5-15,16,17th where we just kept closing at or very near the LOD.

I guess we know Adam from Bloomberg. He posted a price of 1193 Spx based on 2011 actions.
On my chart I have a retrace of .0618 or 1207 Spx so very near his target. He based that on 2011
something that Hadik mentioned on his free letter following an 8 week cycle.
My thoughts after this sell off we could rally but I think that is a week ahead of us less indicator give direction volume and price.
Jerry O

Big move?

Channel holding but for Friday I have mixed signals.
On 5-30- AGET Offered a down bias.( yellow line)
Today Thursday I have a bottom signal and a vix+spx rally indicator.
Last vix-spx signal we had a big gap and recover.
We could break down out of the channel.
Hard call.

Jerry

Rally short

I do think we will shoot for Spx 1350 in the next few days.
This lower chart would suggest that it won't be bullish for long.

Jerry

Failure

Vix + spx direction say's Wednesday down.

We could be looking for 1245 spx as a target soon.

Simple Chart

Still think low is ahead of us,days to weeks.
Break above green downtrend line on a close basis ,
then I'm wrong.

BTW -AGET on a weekly basis has us in a 5th wave top.
Jerry O

Low 3 days way? AGET Wave change

I have updated this chart to the new AGET wave count and the old one is in (red). I also did the new bias so much has changed.

Looking back at really oversold indicators I think we could see a low in 2 to 4 day based on the past.

This is not because I have 144TDL on 5-24.
May 2nd looked like we would have a hard time but low and behold.
I built this below chart in Feb when Apple was going to $1000, GS was saying this is the best time ever to buy stock and the emerging markets would carry the World.
Oh yes 1450 to 1525 was on deck for the SPX.

With the wave count changing if it holds, the high for 2012 probably is in and any rally will be lucky to get to 1370 SPX.

One problem is the $$! If it keeps climbing the FED could and probably will come out with QE3
however QE3 could scare investors big time in to thinking how bad a shape are in.
I would not follow Buffet, his time is up, like every great investor who finally hits a wall.

Good trading to all. Jerry O