Quick -250 downside ahead.

Click Image to enlarge.
Here we have the ^Vix.You will notice
where I have the yellow lines 1356-1101 and the position of the VIX now.The has me on the edge because things could happen fast to the spx downside.
I know people who use the Bollinger bands will say but the vix is at the top of the band but nothing says it can't punch higher into the band extending the trend.
So #1 this makes me bearish.

Here we have the DAX and it has the same count as the SPX talk about a world economy staying in foot step.


Here we have the SPX CIT as called by Advanced Get and a mere 8 to 17 points from what could be a ST top.

I have offered where we could and should go if the 250 point drop is the guide. 1356-1101=-255

1422- 255 =1167.
The wave 4 pull back is offered at 1369.
If this is a wave 3 failure or C wave failure then all hell will break loose.
Is this a one event I don' t think so. A pullback Monday may offer a ST buy with no legs.
Jerry

CIT confirming

Looking good since the second part the down trend lines have appeared.
I will look for Spx target in the area of 1363 to 1331 all wave 4 targets.

Technical Study #1 vs Price high.
Looking at the W1 high not shown on 11/30/2011 we had technical's of 98% upvol, tick of 1004, and a trin of .28.
The price high came 4/5 days later on 12-6/7

The current wave 3 price high came on 3-19-12 just 4 days later than the technical high with 91% upvol, 981 tick and .43 trend.

Change in Trend

Right back at ya!

We came right back after a dip.
So far a weaker return.
Let the investors think about it this weekend, and I hope they will agree
with me, it may not get any better than this.
We are playing king of the hill and the king is losing.

Sell signals hanging by a thread!

Jerry O

Blue vs Blue days

Blue days suck.
This is an updated chart and you can look at the older ones below. If we go under the green and red lines we can drop 40 to 90 points fast.

This started on a blue day and I will stick with the theme looking for a blue day bottom.

For the 8th however we will be looking for a rebound to SHORT!

This will be a hard short because I think the 8th will be firmer that people think. I look for AM high 11:15
approx. and that could be higher than 1359 (spx) with the afternoon firm.
I will post my AGET chart next.

Here I show a wave 3, hoping for wave 4 at 1300 spx creating a death to bull double bottom.
What I mean is that line could offer much less upside to next rally.

The Blue lines show where symmetry can be right on at times with blue days. The high on the 29th was a blue day and I will work from there.I have listed other blue days below. Looking for an AM spike low in the future at 9:55 AM

Jerry O

click chart to expand- color days link on this site ( right)

A Hard look, maybe = caution

First let me say I'm not bearish as of yet.
Second I do have a 144TDH coming in days.
Seems everyone is looking for March as a high?

I show a right translation chart that I hope will be the out come of any pullback.


On this EW chart I have my cycles looking for a high and I put the yellow ball hoping the high will come after the trade days hits.( right translation)
Currently we are over bought. That Happened on 2-29-12 at 9:55am a blue day. The next blue days are
3-8, 3-12, 3-16, and would think we get an over sold reading at 9:55 on one or all those days. Note the 16th is OE.
From that OS I would look for a OB pullback in May as marked.


Currently I have several popular moving averages not telling much.
13/34 John Murphy. The 18 is a favorite of Art Cashin.
The other 2 are mine for ST looks only.

BTW my lower chart on Wed bounced off the line then Fri right back to it
$spxA50R so a lot of tight hints here.


This lower chart I did a model off the


2007 rally and these points in this 2012 ARE VERY IMPORTANT.

Bottom line: I'm bullish thinking the pullback will more a rotation correction.

Friday was an inside day I consider that bullish but only looking for a little higher here.


Jerry O

Some other helpers:

http://spiraldates.com/?category_name=predictions

http://blog.stocktradersalmanac.com/post/Beware-the-Slides-of-March?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+stocktradersalmanac

The color day site in posted on my favorites to the sharp right

log.stocktradersalmanac.com/post/Beware-the-Slides-of-March?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+stocktradersalmanac

Could be bad.!! ???

We have gone into a danger area.
Where I have circled is 11-15 down 90 points in 7 T-days.
12-7 down 46 points in 5 TD.
Surprisingly the VIX didn't respond much so not a tell.
OEX P/c ratio backed off 1.63.
Spy after hrs -.17 not a tell either.
The bottom line is we look like a technical sell but unless we take out
1352.28 a low fib 5 days ago we go higher.

A break of 1352.28 Spx on a close basis takes us to 1300 fast. It will not let you in type move.



Joking somewhat to a member I said a top or bottom needs a 6 in it !
"Many tops and bottoms 1516.83 1518.46 965.80 796.13 775.68 1576 666 and sure enough today we did 1365.68 so we watch."

After this correction if it happens we will look for one more run higher to suck in all the dumb money. Some will call it a C crash wave others the end of a 5th wave. Lets not get ahead of our selves..............Jerry O

Still Bullish

Still bullish if we break that 77 line
it could be a spoiler.
I don't expect it.

Looks higher!

Looks higher to me. 144TDH looms ahead with a few other high cycles in this time frame. 89 TD on the 7th and 220 a few days later.

Below we look at Oex P/C ratio




P 11544/C 4980 = 2.32 Bullish





This volume chart is neither OS or OB
and as long as it remains range bound
we drift higher.
80/30

Hard to call a top yet!.

Looking at stocks above 50dma it's not as high as last peak. The actual sell comes in the red zone but that leaves a lot on the table.
















To pull this together this chart of up volume has been in a sideways movement . Unless we get an extreme
movement it would be hard to call a top.

Jerry O