Vix at 16

recap-Last week was a very quiet Triple Witch for sure, this week click vix chart to enlarge.


Let's look at the vix over the years. You will notice that when we get to 16 over the last few years we have had topping action. Just need to watch, and I start to pick up 1220 SPX as a level that could turn us down. Just saying and I think it will be a higher number.

Wave C,wave X, wave 5 or extended?Some targets.

Looking at a chart on http://blog.afraidtotrade.com that told me something basic so I expanded on it to my liking. The daily gives a few of my price targets .
But you really need to look at the weekly to see how important the support and resistance area's truly are going back years.

Option Week, triple witch. SPX

The BOYZ just love her.....................................................

Dec 2010 Options and Triple Witch. ..........Knowledge is power!

Based on an unscientific view of Options expiration for all Decembers since 1998 to 2009 I have come to one main idea.

To try to paint this with one brush it looks like my theme would be:

Do the opposite of what ever Monday does. ( i.e. if Monday up then rest of week is mostly down, Friday afternoon always iffy) .

Drilling down 1998,2000,2002(except Fri),2003,2007,2008 (dn,Monday big 44pt rally Tuesday was too much then down rest of week).2009 Up Monday net dn to Friday am)

1999 failed this theme a little where Monday was dn a little and Tuesday was down a lot , then rallied rest of week

2001 a bear year rallied most of week, 2006 same rally all week...

2004 and 2005 interestingly had MTW up Th F dn

JPG attached look at blue weeks, click image to expand.

Jerry

Froth target 1263

Many over bought signals like the Isee hitting a new 2010 high today. The % up volume with froth. The tick 1071 etc all call for small pull backs. When the froth covers the crystal ball on wall street expect 100 spx down points .
When is that I don't know, if I did I would share it.
I would like to see a high tick with hi arms. I think we are in 12-31-08 to 1-6-09 period of froth.
Click image to enlarge

Bear for Christmas?

I have the % volume OB, I have the 3 TD Isee OB.
This chart shows how the Spx shoot above the Pitchfork but came back to home. It also shows AGET version of a (5) of 5 EW, yes we could go higher and remain in this (5).
What we have here is the relation of the Vix @ 17-18 and how it should interface with the Spx.


My little numbers runner offering a RISKY short watch the number I have circled. Think we could drop into the 17th/20th where I have a 144TDH but think it will invert. Target should be 1206 at least.

Test Model

Could it be this simple? Well yes it can if you are not trying to be perfect and pick the top and bottom. The numbers I use are good the words are a day off or need adjustment.
I spent a lot of time getting this to formulate right. All I have to do at this point is drag across, for the days I look at 2 many charts and have a mind freeze, or read too many emails.
Anyhow SPX 1206/7 has always been my buy sell line so a pullback to get on board is in the works.

click image to enlarge. KEEP IT SIMPLE! OH & FEED THE FISH, please!

Fools Rally ?

If we look at the upvol/totvolume we see Sept 1st,2nd pattern and the rally should pull back no later than Friday close/Monday open.
However if we look at the adv/totadv we notice this is not as strong as the Sept 1,2 pattern but they look the same. So we went up but not as broad based as Sept. so how much more can we run.


Standing aside for 1 more day..

On hold for 24hrs

Since we came back again to my buy/sell line I will hold short 1 day to see if this can hold. A 93% up volume day an thinking my 144TDH hit today instead of yesterday. Stay loose.

Trend Still down unless

I counted today as a 144TDH from the flash crash and I think that is why we held up. If right after a gap up open I think we back off rest of the day

This is a chart of the $BPOEX showing a divergance and signs of a top.
Sure we can bounce after this many down days but we are not oversold.
Are we still in a trading range of 1173 to 1200? Well till something breaks or we take out 1206 Spx the Trend is still down.
Here is an interesting chart I made with gann box from the July 2007 high, it didn't work from the ATH in Oct 2007. Kind of showing a 32 week pattern. We can watch this unfold if it does.
click image to expand
Feed the fish please.

Trend Still down unless

Monday 29th EOM
The trading range should be over this week as the Blue week did make a lot of noise.
This week we have a Red week that suggest a trend will emerge.
Unless we can blast above 1206 that trend is down.



click image to enlarge

Trend Still down unless

Are we in a trading range of 1173 to 1200 Spx? We go up ,over bought, down oversold.
If we break 1173 a fall to 115x is fast. Nothing sticks out at me this PM but the market thinks it is now over sold. ( market has a personality)
Let the price rule. On this Blue week we have had a H, H, so tomorrow is a L
A gap up in the am could turn down rest of day, We now have room to see what happens.
I could lower the stop at 1206 but I won't.