Froth target 1263

Many over bought signals like the Isee hitting a new 2010 high today. The % up volume with froth. The tick 1071 etc all call for small pull backs. When the froth covers the crystal ball on wall street expect 100 spx down points .
When is that I don't know, if I did I would share it.
I would like to see a high tick with hi arms. I think we are in 12-31-08 to 1-6-09 period of froth.
Click image to enlarge

Bear for Christmas?

I have the % volume OB, I have the 3 TD Isee OB.
This chart shows how the Spx shoot above the Pitchfork but came back to home. It also shows AGET version of a (5) of 5 EW, yes we could go higher and remain in this (5).
What we have here is the relation of the Vix @ 17-18 and how it should interface with the Spx.


My little numbers runner offering a RISKY short watch the number I have circled. Think we could drop into the 17th/20th where I have a 144TDH but think it will invert. Target should be 1206 at least.

Test Model

Could it be this simple? Well yes it can if you are not trying to be perfect and pick the top and bottom. The numbers I use are good the words are a day off or need adjustment.
I spent a lot of time getting this to formulate right. All I have to do at this point is drag across, for the days I look at 2 many charts and have a mind freeze, or read too many emails.
Anyhow SPX 1206/7 has always been my buy sell line so a pullback to get on board is in the works.

click image to enlarge. KEEP IT SIMPLE! OH & FEED THE FISH, please!

Fools Rally ?

If we look at the upvol/totvolume we see Sept 1st,2nd pattern and the rally should pull back no later than Friday close/Monday open.
However if we look at the adv/totadv we notice this is not as strong as the Sept 1,2 pattern but they look the same. So we went up but not as broad based as Sept. so how much more can we run.


Standing aside for 1 more day..

On hold for 24hrs

Since we came back again to my buy/sell line I will hold short 1 day to see if this can hold. A 93% up volume day an thinking my 144TDH hit today instead of yesterday. Stay loose.

Trend Still down unless

I counted today as a 144TDH from the flash crash and I think that is why we held up. If right after a gap up open I think we back off rest of the day

This is a chart of the $BPOEX showing a divergance and signs of a top.
Sure we can bounce after this many down days but we are not oversold.
Are we still in a trading range of 1173 to 1200? Well till something breaks or we take out 1206 Spx the Trend is still down.
Here is an interesting chart I made with gann box from the July 2007 high, it didn't work from the ATH in Oct 2007. Kind of showing a 32 week pattern. We can watch this unfold if it does.
click image to expand
Feed the fish please.

Trend Still down unless

Monday 29th EOM
The trading range should be over this week as the Blue week did make a lot of noise.
This week we have a Red week that suggest a trend will emerge.
Unless we can blast above 1206 that trend is down.



click image to enlarge

Trend Still down unless

Are we in a trading range of 1173 to 1200 Spx? We go up ,over bought, down oversold.
If we break 1173 a fall to 115x is fast. Nothing sticks out at me this PM but the market thinks it is now over sold. ( market has a personality)
Let the price rule. On this Blue week we have had a H, H, so tomorrow is a L
A gap up in the am could turn down rest of day, We now have room to see what happens.
I could lower the stop at 1206 but I won't.

Trend Still down unless

1206/1207 stop go flat. Spx The second sell is at 1199.xx but so close to the buy/sell line we just ride with the 1206 position in an ETF.
This is a Blue week as the chart will show. You will notice many are noisy sideways affair's.

Click image to enlarge.

New people this is a trending model and it will not pick tops or bottoms but the right trend can run 3 to 6 months. I can't pick prices well,so just get on the train and ride .
Jerry

Trend Still down unless

Hi Everyone,
Perhaps I'm a bear at heart and that is why I built this trend model. What have we got that is bearish... I didn't like the fact we closed within .24 of the Spx high Friday. IF you take the high 1227.08 -low 1173.00 =54.08/2 =2704 1227.08 - 2704 is 1200.4 right at my Bull/Bear line.
The Isee seems bullish, letter writters are bullish,( all = bearish) my Parabolic (sar) is bearish, pressure, all telling me this 1173 wasn't a bottom.

Bullish thoughts well Thankgiving week has a bull history, and even with things over bought it can go higher. If Monday wants to gap should be telling.
Short weeks are pressure weeks so expect some big moves with no volume to support them.
Or the gamers week :)

I know Jaywiz at www.jaywiz.blogsot.com looks for weakness into the 29th This is on my favorite bloggers list lower right.
Steve however who have a special price looks higher with 1231 on target for Thanksgiving weekend at http://pugsma.wordpress.com
email pu_gridiron@yahoo.com
Tell him I sent you. trendsby3 jerry
Happy thanks giving to the ones that embrace it.