Think about covering.

The Friday low looks to be here. Not as low as I had hoped.Friday at 2:35 Pm ET you can cover your shorts at 1070 if hit or right now @ 1062 if you want, but this may only be a gap fill to 1067 and for sure it is an over sold bounce.
You bought a bearish ETF at 1122 or better on 8-9, a second on 8-12 @ 1082 and a third @ 1060 on 8-24 but I didn't report it, because a long term cycle.
Still 1060+1082 =2124/2=1071spx
1122+1082=2204/2=1102-1070 =32 point capture.

Trend still down til it isn't . Thursday Friday

I still look for a low Friday based on patterns I see. I thought I could add a spreadsheet here with the count. I can't! I have been calling for Friday low since Monday we will see.


Any-who I have a 144L Friday. and a 144H Wed 9-1-10. The Low so we get the EOM window dressing rally anyone :)
Todays high looked like that time frame. I think the HOD is in by 10:30 am Thursday26th and we go down rest of day.

The alternative is the low is at 10:30am and we rally all day. Use your own indicators!

Jerry went a blog'en

Wednesday 25th rally how powerful?

Wed 25th :
I don't think the rally will be as powerful for Wednesday as I first though. I wanted a close near L.O.D. Come to find out the Yahoo live chart I was watching had the low of 1048.88 ^spx when in fact it was 1046.68 so close, was not near the L.O.D. Then the ^vix spiked higher showing a lot of fear by investors. As long as it stay's above the 50dma it's bearish.
I will stick with resistance at 1085/88 ^spx but look for 1040/1010. Wait Jerry O you missed it by 6.68 points and that is not good enough? Not really a take out of 1040 opens the air pocket to down.
The market is over sold, but not sold out. Time will tell if they will write songs about me :)


I post at Khalsas pad and Time & Cycle group.

24th of August

We had no violation of the 1085/1088 area, that could be used as a stop loss, but the breakeven is 1102 if you want the path to bigger fish. I'm hoping this down trend will be in the 90 day time frame.
Pure speculation for tomorrow(Tuesday) but if we close at LOD (low of day ) or near it, it should be bought, as Wednesday could be a 1 day wonder up!
So far target is 1040-1010 SPX or SP500 and then see how oversold we are.

This is for fun and games. Contact your professional money manager and let them spend your money.
Jerry O
PS no charts tonight since no violations

Monday 23nd and maybe all week

My cycles are still bearish but need to see what happens Monday. Gann circle has the April 23 2010 on alert and pin points Monday.23nd! I think it a high. We also have the vix dn+spx dn = Monday UP. Day after OE we usually reverse.

How high? I think 1085/1088 SPX should offer resistance we break above that I will be back, else I look for a test of 1040-1010 soon. Of course I'm not over sold so it may want to finish down first but guessing Monday up or round trip.

Will add my EW wave thoughts as only Advanced Get can see then and my alternate count..

Getting real bearish for next week

Friday 20th OE Oex in p.m. Saturday settlement.
Trend Model
ST (days) down
Med T (weeks ) down
LT 30 cd up.
I have a jpg of what I think is a bearish 9TD fractal! Is it really a fractal I don't know. I do know this is the second time in 9 TD we are attaching the 50dma on the vix. Once we cross above it, if we do, hang on to your socks or that sucking sound will take them.

Next week I expect an assault on spx 1040 to 1010 .
This chart below is my gann 15 degree model normally 30 is used but I have had some great moves on 15 tomorrow a big move should happen.
I see a gap down am with rally into close +/-20m.
That rally should be sold. disclaimer- fun and games.

19th down ?

Looking for either a 9:40 pop high or a 10:30 high, lower rest of day. S3L preferred
We also has up vix+up spx + down day 80% of the time.

waiting 2 Aug 18th

The inversion window from 1-2pm did offer the H.O.D @ 1:34pm yesterday.

My model didn't offer anything due to Tuesday action.
It is still on a SELL signal. 3 models....
S2 10:30 is key time a hi look for a reversal rest of day, or a 10:30 low look for a rally.
I will use 1102 spx as a breakeven point and then stand aside till a better entry.

Jerry

Use with your own work.

Waiting for next signal

S1L ? or SU (stuckup)
We are in a inversion window 1-2pm.
I have a breakeven sell at 1102 spx if 1122+1082 was held.
We didn't get the 1066L so no credit there.
Max pain has us at 1080-1100 spx but can we go much higher.?
This is a short covering rally so to fast for my trend model .
My model will offer something after today's close.

Down till proven other wize.

The target remains 1066/or 1064. Let market tell us. I can't get all beared up because the vix
didn't close above the 50dma but close. If we are going to bottom here in a Wave (4) that would cause a great buying panic. Keep the Dax in your sites for strength or weakness.
What could make me more bearish/bullish is lower than 1056 spx or gap above 1111.
Short term-days down.
Medterm - weeks down
Lt -30td- up