Monday reversal- P/C 2.49

Pat my back time. If you took the 9:40-9:45 time  and did opposite you had a winner. Blush I over slept.

Monday I look for a reversal to the up side with a possible 10:30 Low. I think 1404-1405 Spx
Reason one, my parabolic indicator is flashing a low.
The P/c ratio 2.49 offers a big move. but real direction unknown since above 3.00 is better for direction.


 
 The Vix as shown in this chart is in the down area with the crossing of MA so a pullback is in order.
The vix is also touching upper band.
One of charts below shows it. Last chart.






                                                                                                                                                                                  Blue circles just point out bottoms and green point out tops but their is a time factor so we have a little room to rally












 

 Fear and greed look neutral.
My sheet was overbought several days ago so this backoff could offer a higher prices for a few days and this   is OE week.

 These charts below have me worry longer term.
If you look at what I will call a frackass because it's not a real fractal but has some haunting indicators. If we don't turn around we could get in a plunge real fast.
Most think we will rally after the WH comes to a deal and we probably will have a knee jerk.
But when you wake up you will say what is good about me paying more taxes. For starters a $65 Obama care fee will be coming soon. Not a tax Oh O.K.

 Here we have a P&F chart with a flag at 1390
and a target of 1250.
This will happen sooner than later.

 Here is the McCellan. I don't try to put spark plugs into the McC and tune it up.

All I do is look at it as a chart with my indicators on it.
Based on that it is on a sell even with  histogram
combo MACD.
Even the cross overs are not good. How fast can this change I don't know but I have it on the watch list.

McClellan looks Ominious

I have no call for Friday. I didn't like the action today ( 3:30) that call to the WH stopped what could have been a good oversold buy.
Will ponder this chart.
Many crossovers that make the market look  weak.

I may try a scalp.

My thoughts do the opposite of 9:40-9:45 since this is S3 yellow.

K.I.S.S.

 Update  Thursday:

Had a $3 profit at 3:30 and was trying to sell zoom zoom up ( that damn white house).
Made only  $1.2 per but love to win.

I looked for a rally today as I said yesterday.
I had hoped to get overbought but only one of my 3 indicators turned positive.
We have been up 5 days in a row and surely can be 6.
I seen no volume or any change in anything to confirem todays rally but the rally is not over.
I did buy a few Oex puts on a gut feeling based more on this chart.
We have hit this brick wall area 5 times. We have the same candle as circled.
My thought is we could pull back for 1   1/2 days at this time.
Don't marry options sell if a profit.
The Fed has nothing to offer but does the White House.
Today I had a cycle hit H to H I hope.

Jerry O

Bullish Charts with P/c Oex 3.74

 Starting off with the Oex p/c ratio @ 3.74 not always but usually offers a big move I suspect up.

Chart to left is in bull town what comes next sooner or later bear town.You can stay overbought
longer than your money will last.

 This is a problem that the RR's are coming back. A cross of that red line could spook a rally.

 Spx with buy signals weeks ago and holding.

The strongest group is Cyclical or one of them and that is bullish as a basic group.

Not very bearish here

All my friends are bearish. Sure this AGET shows
a W4  abc, sure the AGET bias went to a sell.
We see a series of pitchforks. We see  what I think will hold 1400 SPX or 1393 worst case.
Sure we have a lot of crossovers on MA's. ready to kill this market.

But my spreadsheet doesn't agree.
The Vix is hitting 17.XX right where the last low appeared.
We have a 55TDL Wednesday but the oversold condition we had should have us hit the current high again for a double top at least.
Still in cash not ready for puts yet. Not investment advise.
Jerry

Astro by Gabriella

A friend of Trendsby3 having a proud day in
Tel Aviv working the Astro.

You can contact her at (below) or a link in favorites on right.

http://gabriella-mittelman.com/

http://astrologyandthemarkets.blogspot.com/

 

 

 Gabriella best to you. 

Jerry

Getting OB

Starting to get overbought.
This chart shows you can stay OB for many moons.
My spreadsheet is getting close to numbers I like to see.
I think we need a little more time like Dec 2nd but stay vigilante ,
I hope 1424ish will be top end.
Tell me what the boyz in DC are doing?
We could be looking at buy the rumor sell the news.

50 dma is creating resistance.

Still looks up

 Lets start out with the bullish look. Here we have the Rail Roads still climbing from the 11-16 low.

Today should have been the 144TDL from May 1st-2012

The most at this time is a daily scalp  here and their.

 This is the Elder Impulse chart and still in the green despite the drop so far.
The CCI and MACD not bearish either.

 Looking at this break or not, we are hanging in there and well within the limits. The brick wall was hit but with EOM rally coming I can't get to bearish.
The vix is quiet.

The bearish look is Advanced Get gave a sell bias.
Two days in a row of inside days- unknown
The Oex PC after too days low numbers returned
to more normal 2.03 perhaps making the other 2 days equal.
The fools in Washington DC playing games with our money!
A break of SPX 1370, not expected.

More up

More bricks in the wall, stopping at resistance. I don't think this is a double top here but could keep us from 1420.
With today decline ( Monday 26th) that killed my OB thoughts.Will see how this resistance acts.
Inside day today is bullish to me.
Oex p/c @ .78  unknown.
As I said yesterday the high is ahead of us and will add could be early Dec. Yes Christmas and holiday sales are strong but will create buyers remorse in January 2013 and the tax man in Washington DC is licking his chops.Beware!

On hold.

http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/?iid=H_INV_QL


My thoughts
"As far as, can I pick a CIT here, no I can't, who can?
Sure we have a trin of .42 my source, and a Oex P/C of .58 both a rare treat and extrmemes in my book are bearish but I have everything else on the cusp.
A market that was that OS, should get at least OB.
If you take the average 5td trading points and divide
 by 2 it suggests  a 2-3 more td top.
I have a 144 tdL Tuesday that could be a high or 1 day event dn.
Maybe one more day will clear the air."