Thursday Intraday 1414.15 is key

We take out 1404.15 on the close then 1390 will be quick. Nothing on volume yet

Technical high vs Actual

Signs of a top. This chart shows the $trans above the 200/50 dma but still far below the $spx not bullish so far.

I have the technical high on 8-7-12 and have been overbought ever since.

The price is still unfolding.

I have on the 17th a 220 TD hit,on 8-21-12 both a 330 and a 55TD . The 55TD is supposed to be a high but looking at Friday we had down volume on an up price day, that is usually followed by either flat or down.

Chart below still looking for a low to place.






















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I had a question on this statement:
looking at Friday we had down volume on an up price day, that is usually followed by either flat or down.

Answer: Look at this upv chart / by total vol we see a down spike with spx up 2.65 a divergence.

I have added my sheet so you can see on column H BEIGE/GREEN the up and down %. If you look at spx to left you will see most times on beige days we are flat to down.
Now the % number is important because
it can tell you OB and OS. It's
one my most important indicators.
Total volume means nothing only the direction of the volume.I have said this many times in many years and finally some one read what I was saying. LOL

Top is in I believe

Advanced Get has moved to a wave 5, this puts 1380.39 ( w3) on the scope as support/resistance.

My indicators are over bought, who's aren't LOL.
I had 1390 -1400 pegged so 1407 is nothing.The one day wonder wondered a little more than I though.

I have bought SPXS triple short ETF.

Lets go cowboy..
The VIX btw is in C of 5 not pictured.Rally in Vix suggested. The market is having to many glitches of late that suggests no support to hold us up since every one is in.

Jerry

One Day wonder.

If we look at last 3 years highs that were all spring highs, we see 9 and 13 as import lows after these highs.
Currently we have a 9TDL in and we need a turn down or this is going to be bullish for stocks.

I have just gone to a sell on my model
with a 109TDL on the 9th of Aug.
same day I understand but can't confirm that Eric HAdik has a high so could be very important day.

The Vix at 15.xx has been a good time to short.
Notice how we stay in this channel and time to retrench.
AGET only offers 1350 so far.

I was looking for 1390+ and we got it.
Since all the computers have now been reset, lets see where we really go.
Good trading.

More up 1390 target

We are on a 7-13 AGET buy and locked in this channel.




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We could have a target of 1390, 1400 coming up on the Spx

You will notice the last volume signal was a buy signal with Friday OE
having *NO* effect, trend is up.


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Chart from Gordon Harms M2 increased last week.









Jerry

High Tuesday

If we follow the same pattern as last ramp up we should have a playable high Tuesday @ 1:25

click image to enlarge.

Sell on 7-6 view again

Here is the 7-6 sell again and the line cluster it is stuck in.


Today Tuesday we had a 3.23 Oex put/call ratio and I say this one is down, so this could be big.

More downside.

UP/dn vol with $nysi














Here we have AGET giving a sell signal!









Red week.
This is also a red week if we do opposite of last red week we could have a nice sell off.

Air pocket ahead. Very OB

Can we go 3 for 3 on peaks?
Yes we can. I'm as OB as 6-19-12 where we dropped 54 spx points in days.
3-19-12 where we dropped 28 spx points in days.
Volume total is OB,Volume % is OB, my spread sheet counts are OB.
We have a 144TDL due Thursday that could be an inverted high. My number breaking is spx 1369.17 and S1 is 1366.76.
Alas the target maybe only 1340.

Key Reports and Events:

Tue - Jul 03 - 10:00 - Factory Orders
Tue - Jul 03 - 14:00 - Auto/Truck Sales
Thu - Jul 05 - 07:00 - MBA Mortgage Index
Thu - Jul 05 - 07:30 - Challenger Job Cuts
Thu - Jul 05 - 10:00 – European Central Bank Policy Statement
Thu - Jul 05 - 08:15 - ADP Employment
Thu - Jul 05 - 08:30 - Initial Claims
Thu - Jul 05 - 10:00 - ISM Services
Thu - Jul 05 - 11:00 - Oil Inventories
Fri - Jul 06 - 08:30 - Employment Report

Volume suggests its close to over.

Volume looks peak or close.
Being a holiday week we could get very volatile . The vix is as low as the last peak or a good time to get short.
I'm not calling this an oversold rally but a momentum rally. We were OS at 2:30 Thursday once the momentum kicked in the HFT computers kicked in, short covering kicked in so the rally was feed by cash and momentum kept the rally going into Friday OB close.
I just hope we get a short setup Monday intraday.
This rally could be history.
Jerry O