Failure

Vix + spx direction say's Wednesday down.

We could be looking for 1245 spx as a target soon.

Simple Chart

Still think low is ahead of us,days to weeks.
Break above green downtrend line on a close basis ,
then I'm wrong.

BTW -AGET on a weekly basis has us in a 5th wave top.
Jerry O

Low 3 days way? AGET Wave change

I have updated this chart to the new AGET wave count and the old one is in (red). I also did the new bias so much has changed.

Looking back at really oversold indicators I think we could see a low in 2 to 4 day based on the past.

This is not because I have 144TDL on 5-24.
May 2nd looked like we would have a hard time but low and behold.
I built this below chart in Feb when Apple was going to $1000, GS was saying this is the best time ever to buy stock and the emerging markets would carry the World.
Oh yes 1450 to 1525 was on deck for the SPX.

With the wave count changing if it holds, the high for 2012 probably is in and any rally will be lucky to get to 1370 SPX.

One problem is the $$! If it keeps climbing the FED could and probably will come out with QE3
however QE3 could scare investors big time in to thinking how bad a shape are in.
I would not follow Buffet, his time is up, like every great investor who finally hits a wall.

Good trading to all. Jerry O

Signals failing

At 1AM ET I watch as ASIA self destruct .Back in Feb/March as Apple was headed for $1000 and the Emerging markets were going to carry the World and any sell off, I scoffed.
This chart I made in Feb had a 144 TDL in May 24th is close enough.
The other reason I post this chart is I just heard DR DOOM ( Mark Farber) compare this May with May 2011 ( yellow dots) Mark says not to short this market because he believes we will have a big run higher like June 2011. His target is 1370/1400.
May 2011 we dropped 60 points and May 2012 111 pts so far, if the ST low is in here. basically dropping twice as fast. Until we have a rally we are in no man's
land support 1292 then a wave failure at 1267.
I lost a few calls but LT bearish ETF working.I know I said a few pages back when this starts it will be fast, but always suprising just the same.
Jerry O

AGET offers an upside bias 5-10th close

I have a chart here that could offer a long real quick.
I have 3 reasons to look for a low and rally here.
#1 we had a oex P/C of 3.19 offered, near a low or high we get extremes.
#2 was a my parabolic indicator looking for a low.
#3 The AGET buy bias so a little rally is in order if we can clear 1365.xx
#4 JPM throwing the bulls off,so to rally. Why this is old news it was in the WSJ on 4-10-12
#5 SPY after hrs was flat



Now I understand a member of Crystal BAll has discovered that the current bars are the same as 3-6-09 major low. Well looking back I don't see the big sell off of 3-5-09.
The OEX options P/c was lower than now and volume was bearish vs now.
Matter of fact we were in a wave 5 AGET with street bearness heavy.
I don't see that now. The most I have in common with then vs now was a parabolic looking for a low and we are in a wave 4 with 5 to come. Of course if we are having wave failure 3 or C the only waves that can crash that is different.
Personally my work looks a little higher like test of 1422 spx or facebook suck face.












All I can say is the track record is good.

I'm long SPY options from the 5-9 low.

I will admit it will have a tough time with futures down 77pt at 12:30 am et but what do they know!
( Thursday night) they do know nothing.

Down till Fed Thursday, perhaps, or target

LET ME SAY IT IS HARD TO ORGANIZE THESE CHARTS.

This first chart shows we are just into sell territory using this indicator StockChart.com.

Read disclaimer not investment advise.
Click charts to enlarge.








This chart of mine has several scenarios all lower unless we take out 1379.94 on the upside I plan to remain short for Monday.
My target was 1358 Spx but my excel sheet now likes 1338 for an oversold reading that could offer a more sustainable rally.
The fact that the Spy went -.51 after the close is on a DAILY BASIS bearish
a weekend basis maybe not.


I hope these Gann boxes will offer more direction









Why should you worry? http://www.websterscommentaries.com/
of who is in deep trouble and growing.. Kit's site offers this chart.

Or many because of how the hedges are selling even Germany.
http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/05/05/hedge-funds-betting-against-the-eurozone-why-you-should-worry/


That grey chart offers how the market looked in 1992 the last time a socialist ran France. As I recall that time period the economy was running good not like now where the cheap $$ is the only game.



























This chart shows we were not
oversold on the close. May mean nothing but with Spy selling -.52 after the close could offer direction, not as reliable as daily.







Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak about bank lending in Chicago Thursday morning. Speeches from presidents for the Federal Reserve banks in Richmond, Minneapolis, Dallas and Philadelphia are also on tap.

AGET has downward Bias

Look at red lines, track record is good.
A move above 1415.31 will kill the bias.

The time and price are right!

The Gann circle looks great and with the back off today even better.
Why do I say time is right?
The 1422 high ( Spx) was the first day of April, 30 degree later a near high on the 1st of May. If we take out todays high and close above it then this scenario is dead.
Advanced Get has the daily Dow in a wave 5. The weekly Spx is in a wave 5
so the daily is an issue.


If we break higher then here is scenario #2 using pitchfork,cycles,
and Elliot targets.

Click charts to enlarge.

I will add I never seen the oversold levels to promote this rally so it could fizz just as fast depending on a few more earnings.

Jerry O

Will it happen?

These Gann fans always look nice, but I have seen many fail.
Just a scenario!

How mixed?

WE have pressure on market till April 27th with Appl re-balance. We have earning next 2 weeks of course they will be weaker as restructuring is getting lame. French elections!
Bernanke Tues and Wed I believe.

Bottom line, I look for Monday down
based on open and low indicator.
Last 3 events out of 4 had weakness.

Green week. Monday 1380 to 1370, if 1370 breaks we go to 1350 ish fast.

Jerry