A Hard look, maybe = caution

First let me say I'm not bearish as of yet.
Second I do have a 144TDH coming in days.
Seems everyone is looking for March as a high?

I show a right translation chart that I hope will be the out come of any pullback.


On this EW chart I have my cycles looking for a high and I put the yellow ball hoping the high will come after the trade days hits.( right translation)
Currently we are over bought. That Happened on 2-29-12 at 9:55am a blue day. The next blue days are
3-8, 3-12, 3-16, and would think we get an over sold reading at 9:55 on one or all those days. Note the 16th is OE.
From that OS I would look for a OB pullback in May as marked.


Currently I have several popular moving averages not telling much.
13/34 John Murphy. The 18 is a favorite of Art Cashin.
The other 2 are mine for ST looks only.

BTW my lower chart on Wed bounced off the line then Fri right back to it
$spxA50R so a lot of tight hints here.


This lower chart I did a model off the


2007 rally and these points in this 2012 ARE VERY IMPORTANT.

Bottom line: I'm bullish thinking the pullback will more a rotation correction.

Friday was an inside day I consider that bullish but only looking for a little higher here.


Jerry O

Some other helpers:

http://spiraldates.com/?category_name=predictions

http://blog.stocktradersalmanac.com/post/Beware-the-Slides-of-March?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+stocktradersalmanac

The color day site in posted on my favorites to the sharp right

log.stocktradersalmanac.com/post/Beware-the-Slides-of-March?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+stocktradersalmanac

Could be bad.!! ???

We have gone into a danger area.
Where I have circled is 11-15 down 90 points in 7 T-days.
12-7 down 46 points in 5 TD.
Surprisingly the VIX didn't respond much so not a tell.
OEX P/c ratio backed off 1.63.
Spy after hrs -.17 not a tell either.
The bottom line is we look like a technical sell but unless we take out
1352.28 a low fib 5 days ago we go higher.

A break of 1352.28 Spx on a close basis takes us to 1300 fast. It will not let you in type move.



Joking somewhat to a member I said a top or bottom needs a 6 in it !
"Many tops and bottoms 1516.83 1518.46 965.80 796.13 775.68 1576 666 and sure enough today we did 1365.68 so we watch."

After this correction if it happens we will look for one more run higher to suck in all the dumb money. Some will call it a C crash wave others the end of a 5th wave. Lets not get ahead of our selves..............Jerry O

Still Bullish

Still bullish if we break that 77 line
it could be a spoiler.
I don't expect it.

Looks higher!

Looks higher to me. 144TDH looms ahead with a few other high cycles in this time frame. 89 TD on the 7th and 220 a few days later.

Below we look at Oex P/C ratio




P 11544/C 4980 = 2.32 Bullish





This volume chart is neither OS or OB
and as long as it remains range bound
we drift higher.
80/30

Hard to call a top yet!.

Looking at stocks above 50dma it's not as high as last peak. The actual sell comes in the red zone but that leaves a lot on the table.
















To pull this together this chart of up volume has been in a sideways movement . Unless we get an extreme
movement it would be hard to call a top.

Jerry O

Why fight it.

Of course a one day breakout doesn't pass the test of time but volume has been picking up. Now high volume to me comes at tops or distribution.
If we remain on this pattern and with the 144TDH hitting early Mar we could see final targets of Spx 1402.

Downside very limited until it isn't.
( A big breakdown) not expected.

GAp dn rally to close-Thursday

I thought today looked a LOT like Jan 10th.

If that is the case we should gap lower maybe 10-10:20 Low then rally all day.









Feb 1st

Danger

Make or Break divergence and fractal

Our heads are all full of sugar plums so the the emotions are high.

We have been rebuffed here today.
See if this is going to hold or not.



click chart to enlarge.










This could make for an interesting fractal.
Manufacturing was down today and I think unemployment will be up Friday.






Visit our new friend for Astro of markets.
http://astrologyandthemarkets.blogspot.com/

Why I worry!

On this chart I have the $spx vs Neog.
Neogen is a niche company in the food safety and animal safety business.
This great divergence from the trend maybe very telling of world business.
If you read their report it has gotten real bad world wide.
The world food supplies are a must to protect so what is happening out there?

click image to emlarge