Surprise

Never got the big drop many seen....:(
Thinking Thursday up based on UPV, and isee , Friday down so far,
then Holiday 30th reminder.

May 27th will be very quiet, take the day off. ( methinks)
May 31 UP dow up 8 of 11
June 1st UP dow up 10 of last 12
June 2nd look for a MACD sell nasdaq
June 3rd Dow down



H @ Almanac

Alert 2 PTI weak for Wednesday

As we look at Advanced Get above we notice the PTI is offering a wave 5 failure. Target could be 1303 to 1294. I had thought Sunday the low would be Tuesday but Tuesday didn't act right. I will admit a few smarter than me were also confirming low not in yet. I hope we are right.
Bullish-Indicators vix + spx offers a buy 70% correct.
Bearish indicators PC ratio bearish, Isee,My trending model on a sell since 5-9 @ 1340, some spread sheet work. (upvol and ratios)

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Below
Stocks above the 50 dma are close to a sell

click on image to enlarge.
"" Jerryo1314@yahoo.com """

Alert

UPDATE AT 12 NOON ET spx -18 so far.. The chart above is John Murphy favorite a 13/34 EMA. You will notice the last high was 18 bars to a crossover. Today we are at bar 16 near a crossover. So my call for a low tomorrow is looking better and better.
Jerry O









The more I think about this I believe we will have a trad-able Low on Monday's close or Tuesday May 24th.

With the high P/C ratio, several of my spread sheet indicators and the after OE slump!
What we will need is a 9% or less upvolume day

That is my best guess based on what the world markets are doing at 10:30 PM ET

1 week later no change!

Since we didn't break S/R levels this gets hard.
What I say on the chart and my thinking here is we are over sold. I think R1 1348 is a target Monday or Tuesday. I look for Friday down based on a 55td L and a minor 144td L from those highs. Till we break up or down I remain on a trending sell signal
click chart to enlarge...................................Feed the Fish too!

Margin call TOP

Click image to enlarge.
1362 Spx would also be a normal 2.5% retracement from current low and the above stated fib.
The vix +spx indicator says Monday DOWN ( 70% correct)
The upvolume offered only 5 points, normal a 76% UV day would be 12 to 17 spx points so we ate a lot of upvolume going no where.
This kind of reminds of the 2008 volatility from different lows.

SPX Weekly

Click Image to enlarge.

Getting Strange.

As we look at this upvolume chart and since we have just had a 3 day Spx rally of over 25 points, I have to wonder how the upvolume can be going down. Last 3 days was 70% then 65% now 61% as market makes new highs.


Here we see what could be a big divergance on the stocks above 50%. We are making new highs but the chart looks toppy hitting a down trend line.
Click chart to enlarge.



I have a 144TDH today Friday 4-29-11 could this end the rally?
End of month window dressing.
Jerry O

CIT to DOWN

I have a change in the trend to down. My VVST and VVT went on a sell as pictured.
But when the long term trend changes to down I need to ring the bell and that has happened.
Can we go higher, yes a little but 1322 Spx should hold the line.

This of course is a mechanical system just following the numbers.


What I don't show on this sheet is the $VIX. The went below 14.99 on 4-15-11. You have to go back to 7-12/13 07 to see those number right before a nice correction.
Even The $Vix at 15.25 has been a topping area many times over the last 4 years.
This is for fun an games only. Use with your own work!
Jerry

Sell but getting OS

Above EW can't go below 1301 or the count is wrong. I think we are probably at a bottom 1310 but a 8-9% upvol day could call the low. The trend up is still strong it appears so a pullback like we are having will be light pullback.
What has me puzzled is the vix just not considering a pullback here. Is their a surprise coming?

Bottom chart we see the % of stocks above 50 dma right at the border of a sell. Unless we have a big down day not expected I don't think we get the sell on this indicator.
On the upside I think 1320 then 1328 spx kicks off a rally.

VST sell

I have gone to a very short term sell.
AGET suggests a wave 4 target of 1317 to 1310.
One weird thing is the vix dropped to day with market down. VIX+SPX say's rally tomorrow about 70% accurate. Market is so tight no one knows what we are wait for, but could be the 27th as Bernanke has first open press conference