Update on bar count

The bar today was more bearish than expected. I have been saying to any one that would listen we will mount a rally Thursday. The way I see it. POP the open , HOD by 9:45ET, then down 10+ SPX points, mid day, to recover to close.
Today Vix went over 17, I said we would be lower if that happened. watch it.
Isee was too Bearish 86 = bullish 1 day
Trin 2.31 bearish = bullish 1 day
Upvolume 11% =Bullish 1 day
The trin,isee,upvol and you match up with 5-18, or 8-19. We mount an afternoon rally I would say it is shorted.

Trend Still UP unless

UPDATE 1-18 today vs my drawing lower on this page- So good So far.


We need to take some of these target if a turn down is in store 1269

Here we have a bar count from my video. Since this is still imagined it should go something like this. Closing near high of day a MUST as we did Friday 1-14-2011 showing great optimism.
So the next bar as shown should look like this.

This bar 2 is the most important as described.


What is bar 2 fails and we have a blow off top? It would still have this pattern leading to that blow off. But must close lower than bar 2 and 3


Click charts to expand. Recap: You must see a pattern something like this or the count starts all over again. In our minds we think markets run up and crash but not really there are clues.
This is one clue.................................... Jerry O

Trend still up

Trend Still UP unless 1260/62 falls

Dates of interest! We have the -1-13-11 with 8,110 and 144 TDL hits
Next is 1-26 a 144TDH from that serious 1010 low
Next we have 2-18/22 with the MOB chart picking that time cluster

click charts to expand --- MOB with fib angles crossing ,matching MOB date.
Fun with Gann lines and a pitchfork. Congestion, early sell on parabolic indicator( I put speed to it)

Going to need a close below 1262.xx Spx

to get any thing going on the downside.

1249 would be trouble.

I don't expect that area on the Spx Wednesday.
Mondays thrust was bullish, yes. Had Tuesday had some following up and pulled back that would have been bearish.
The way I see the price bars, Tuesday was an inside day and bullish enough after a lower open to at least challenge the Monday high.
Like to think the high of week will come Friday am. point 8.
Jerry

Pressure building

Pressure building for a move up/down.

Trending model has moved up to 1247.73 with in 10 points of the close.
We stay above 1258 Spx we are alright. A close below 1253 a warning then 1247 a sell.

Personally I think 1283 is to be tested.
Jerry

My 2011 Outlook

Click image to expand.

Vix at 16

recap-Last week was a very quiet Triple Witch for sure, this week click vix chart to enlarge.


Let's look at the vix over the years. You will notice that when we get to 16 over the last few years we have had topping action. Just need to watch, and I start to pick up 1220 SPX as a level that could turn us down. Just saying and I think it will be a higher number.

Wave C,wave X, wave 5 or extended?Some targets.

Looking at a chart on http://blog.afraidtotrade.com that told me something basic so I expanded on it to my liking. The daily gives a few of my price targets .
But you really need to look at the weekly to see how important the support and resistance area's truly are going back years.

Option Week, triple witch. SPX

The BOYZ just love her.....................................................

Dec 2010 Options and Triple Witch. ..........Knowledge is power!

Based on an unscientific view of Options expiration for all Decembers since 1998 to 2009 I have come to one main idea.

To try to paint this with one brush it looks like my theme would be:

Do the opposite of what ever Monday does. ( i.e. if Monday up then rest of week is mostly down, Friday afternoon always iffy) .

Drilling down 1998,2000,2002(except Fri),2003,2007,2008 (dn,Monday big 44pt rally Tuesday was too much then down rest of week).2009 Up Monday net dn to Friday am)

1999 failed this theme a little where Monday was dn a little and Tuesday was down a lot , then rallied rest of week

2001 a bear year rallied most of week, 2006 same rally all week...

2004 and 2005 interestingly had MTW up Th F dn

JPG attached look at blue weeks, click image to expand.

Jerry